Alvarez Free Squares – MLB DFS Value Plays For the Monday 7/3 Main Slate

 Searching For the Free Square 

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.

 

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Tonight

Hope everyone has been having good holiday weekend as we are just over halfway through the MLB season. I will be tackling the main slate for Monday in which we have 8 games on the slate. On the pitching side of things, we do not have a ton of aces taking the mound or very expensive guys as Marcus Stroman is the only pitcher who is priced over 10k. On the hitting side of things we have a Coors Field game and with not a ton of aces I think we should be able to fit some higher priced bats in our lineups. Let’s dive into this shorter slate:

Free Squares

  • Aaron Nola  SP PHI ($8,800)
    • Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are currently -118 favorites the Pirates have an implied run total sitting at right around  4.17 runs. Aaron Nola has been having a pretty solid year so far this season. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the year: .341 wOBA given up to lefties, .263 wOBA given up to righties, 23.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, 4.01 SIERA, 28.1 Har%, and a 3.77 xFIP. He will be taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates who have been averaging 4.22 runs per game this season. They have the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 17th in BB%, 28th in K%, 25th in OPS, 27th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. The Pirates don’t have the K numbers that we would like to see but on the other hand, we don’t really fear their bats too much either. On a bad pitching slate, Aaron Nola is one of my favorites guys and I think you can use him as an SP1 or SP2.
  • Brian Dozier 2B MIN ($3,800)
    • Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Alex Meyer tonight at Target Field. The Twins have one of the highest implied run totals sitting at right around 5.13 runs. Dozier has been having a pretty solid season at the halfway point. He as the following numbers vs. against right-handed pitching on the season: 10.6 BB%, 19.3 K%, .708 OPS, .177 ISO, .239 BABIP, .302 wOBA, and a 84 wRC+. I think those numbers are a bit low due to a really low BABIP this year. He will be facing Alex Meyer who has the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters on the season: .275 wOBA, 25.0 K%, 14,1 BB%, 4.38 xFIP, and a 34.2 Hard%. Outside of Coors Field, this Twins team is one of my favorite stacks of the Day. Going along with that I think Dozier has to be a part of your Twins stacks and I love him as a pretty affordable one off at second base tonight.
  • Nomar Mazara OF TEX ($3,600)
    • Nomar Mazara and the Texas Rangers will take on the Boston Red Sox and pitcher Rick Porcello tonight at Globe Life Park. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.43 runs. Mazara has been having a pretty up and down year so far but he always brings some serious power potential to the plate. Here are his numbers when facing right-handed pitching this season: 9.4 BB%, 20.4 K%, .811 OPS, .208 ISO, .304 BABIP, .339 wOBA, and a 107 wRC+. He will be facing Rick Porcello the former Cy Young who hasn’t had quite the same year as last year. He has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season so far: .349 wOBA, 1.50 HR/9, 21.7 K%, 5.1 BB%, 4.59 xFIP, and a 44.8 Hard%. He has been getting hit very hard this season which bodes well for a power hitter like Mazara. I love the Rangers stack tonight and Mazara is at the top of the list of my favorite guys on that stack.

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Free Square of the Night

Small slate tonight but I think we have some guys who I really like tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today!  With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara tonight! Good luck Army!

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