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Much to everyone’s dismay, I made it out of NYC alive this week. Had a great time at my first FSTA Conference and was able to meet a lot of awesome people that pioneered the way for all this degeneratism that we engage in on a daily basis. It was very cool to hear all of those stories and get some ideas on how we can create some memories of our own in the future. I’ll talk more about that on today’s podcast, but let’s get that afternoon $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ first!!!
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Max Scherzer – R) @ MIAMI MARLINS (Dan Straily – R)
Scherzer: 8-4, 2.26 ERA/0.84 WHIP – It’s simply been another splendid campaign for Scherzer, who continues to post dazzling numbers. Most notably, he’s racked up double-digit strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts and has only allowed 3 ER or more four times in 14 tries. Scherzer has yet to face the Marlins this season, but owns a 6-2 record and 3.86 ERA against them in the last nine meetings; he is also 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA on the road this season.
Nationals offense:
* Splits against Straily:
+ RHB: 8 HR, .236 avg, .311 OBP, .466 SLG, .777 OPS
– LHB: 1 HR, .193 avg, .266 OBP, .300 SLG, .566 OPS
+ Daniel Murphy: 10-for-28 (.455 OBP) with 4 doubles, a triple, HR, 6 RBI, 5 BB and 6 runs over the last seven games – leads all Nationals with a .377 avg, .429 OBP, .682 SLG and 1.111 OPS in road games this season.
+ Bryce Harper: 9-for-29 with a double, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB and 5 runs over the last seven games.
+ Anthony Rendon: 7-for-17 (.500 OBP) with 2 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB and 4 runs over the last five games.
+ Ryan Zimmerman: Leads all Nationals with 12 HR and 40 RBI in road games this season – .347 avg, .642 SLG, 1.033 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
– Michael Taylor: 10 Ks in his last 24 plate appearances.
* BvP numbers against Straily:
– Daniel Murphy: 1-for-11
+ Adam Lind: 4-for-9, double
+ Matt Wieters: 5-for-6, 2 HR
Straily: 5-4, 3.58 ERA/1.13 WHIP – His home/road splits have been well-documented, but Straily is coming off a terrific performance against the Braves at SunTrust Park in his last outing. Today’s matchup against the Nationals will surely need that home magic since they bombarded Straily earlier this season at Nationals Park for 5 ER in 3.1 innings.
Marlins offense:
* Splits against Scherzer:
+ LHB: 8 HR, .226 avg, .307 OBP, .390 SLG, .696 OPS
– RHB: 4 HR, .121 avg, .159 OBP, .230 SLG, .389 OPS
+ Dee Gordon: 11-for-25 (.483 OBP, .963 OPS) with a double, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 6 SB and 6 runs over the last six games.
+ Christian Yelich: 9-for-22 (.536 OBP, 1.036 OPS) with 2 doubles, 7 RBI, 4 BB and 5 runs over the last six games.
+ Marcell Ozuna: .394 avg, .462 OBP, 1.202 OPS – 13 HR, 32 RBI in 34 games at Marlins Park this season.
* BvP numbers against Scherzer:
– Ichiro Suzuki: 12-for-43, triple, 2 BB, 6 Ks
+ Dee Gordon: 9-for-30, double, HR, BB, 4 Ks
+ Justin Bour: 5-for-22, double, HR, 3 BB, 6 Ks
+ Marcell Ozuna: 5-for-19, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 Ks
+ Christian Yelich: 7-for-18, double, triple, 2 HR, 3 Ks
– Derek Dietrich: 4-for-15, double, HR, 2 BB, 6 Ks
– JT Realmuto: 1-for-13, 5 Ks
CINCINNATI REDS (Tim Adleman – R) @ TAMPA BAY RAYS (Erasmo Ramirez – R)
Adleman: 4-3, 4.22 ERA/1.23 WHIP – He’s looked excellent lately, notching four quality starts in the last five tries and now gets to take on a Rays team that has the second-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching. Adleman does get the inconvenience of facing the DH instead of the usual pitcher he faces in National League parks, not to mention one of the best power lineups in baseball.
Reds offense:
+ Joey Votto: 9-for-27 with 2 doubles and 2 HR over the last six games – .415 OBP against right-handed pitching this season.
+ Jose Peraza leads all Reds with a .317 avg on the road this season.
Ramirez: 3-2, 5.17 ERA/1.28 WHIP – This certainly isn’t a dream matchup for Ramirez, then again, nothing has been dreamy for him lately. The former long reliever has given up 32 hits and 19 ER over his last 17 innings of work and hasn’t made it a full six innings in each of the last four starts. There is one glimmer of hope, though, as Ramirez has an ERA of nearly four runs less this season at Tropicana Field.
Rays offense:
+ Steven Souza Jr: 8-for-23 (.464 OBP) with a double, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB and 6 runs over the last seven games.
+ Logan Morrison: 7-for-21 with a double, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB and 6 runs over the last seven games.
+ Corey Dickerson: .319 avg with 13 HR and 27 RBI against right-handed pitching this season.
+ Mallex Smith currently has an 11-game hitting streak and is hitting .382 at Tropicana Field this season.
– Evan Longoria: 4-for-27 over the last seven games.
BOSTON RED SOX (Drew Pomeranz – L) @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Ian Kennedy – R)
Pomeranz: 6-4, 4.19 ERA/1.40 WHIP – He’s improved a bit over the last five outings, tossing three quality starts in that span. The strikeout numbers have been down for Pomeranz over the last two starts but you can attribute that to tough matchups against the Tigers and Astros. He does have the added benefit today of taking the mound in one of the league’s best pitching parks.
Red Sox offense:
+ Kennedy has allowed a home run in nine straight outings.
+ Xander Bogaerts: 9-for-30 with a double, 2 HR and 9 RBI over the last seven games – .326 avg, .384 OBP against right-handed pitching this season – His .303 avg on the road leads all Red Sox (with at least 30 at-bats.)
+ Mookie Betts: 9-for-30 with a double, 3 HR, 5 RBI and 7 runs over the last seven games – His 11 HR and 28 RBI on the road leads all Red Sox.
+ Jackie Bradley Jr: 9-for-26 with 2 doubles, a triple, HR and 4 RBI over the last seven games.
– Josh Rutledge: 3-for-19 with 9 Ks over the last six games.
– Mitch Moreland: 2-for-19 with 7 Ks over the last five games.
* BvP numbers against Kennedy:
– Pablo Sandoval: 11-for-51, 4 doubles, 2 BB, 10 Ks
– Hanley Ramirez: 4-for-26, all singles, 3 BB, 3 Ks
– Josh Rutledge: 5-for-19, double, HR, 3 BB, 4 Ks
Kennedy: 1-6, 5.03 ERA/1.21 WHIP – It took him almost three months, but Kennedy ended up getting his first win of the season in his last outing. He looked great against the Angels, going six innings while only allowing one run which came on a homer. Today’s matchup with the Red Sox presents more difficulty and almost zero opportunity for strikeout upside.
Royals offense:
+ Lefties are hitting .380 against Pomeranz this season in 53 plate appearances.
+ Lorenzo Cain: 12-for-25 (.536 OBP, 1.000 SLG, 1.536 OPS) with a double, 4 HR, 7 RBI and 7 runs over the last seven games.
+ Whit Merrifield: .318 avg, .400 OBP, .900 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (Miguel Diaz – R) @ CHICAGO CUBS (Eddie Butler – R)
Diaz: 1-1, 7.36 ERA/1.60 WHIP – Not expecting much from Diaz today…or at any point in the near future. The Padres started him out in the bullpen and are slowly increasing his pitch count with every starting appearance. Diaz did throw 66 in his last outing at Milwaukee and wasn’t that efficient, lasting only 3.1 innings; I wouldn’t expect much more than that today.
Padres offense:
* Splits against Butler:
+ LHB: .275 avg, .387 OBP, .451 SLG, .838 OPS
– RHB: .195 avg, .271 OBP, .351 SLG, .621 OPS
– Corey Spangenberg: 3-for-22 with 11 Ks over the last six games.
– Franchy Cordero: 3-for-21 with 10 Ks over the last six games.
– Jose Pirela: 3-for-21 with 6 Ks over the last five games.
Butler: 3-2, 4.41 ERA/1.36 WHIP – He finished with no strikeouts in that last outing at Pittsburgh (in a tough matchup with little K-upside) but we’ll see certainly see Butler have a chance to redeem himself against the whiff-happy Padres. Hopefully, this time goes better than the previous meeting when he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 innings earlier this season at Petco Park.
Cubs offense:
* Splits against Diaz:
+ LHB: .333 avg, .411 OBP, .625 SLG, 1.036 OPS
– RHB: .215 avg, .333 OBP, .431 SLG, .764 OPS
+ Anthony Rizzo: 10-for-24 with a double, triple, 3 HR, 7 RBI and 5 runs over the last six games.
+ Willson Contreras: 7-for-18 with 4 doubles, HR and 7 RBI over the last six games.
+ Ian Happ: Double-digit FDP in five of the last seven games.
– Kris Bryant: 1-for-15 with 8 Ks over the last five games.
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