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Walsh’s Way: MLB DFS Notes – Thursday, June 22nd (Afternoon Slate)

 

Follow me on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh

 


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Carlos Martinez – R) @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Aaron Nola – R)
STL -140, O/U: 8.5

Martinez: 6-5, 2.86 ERA/1.05 WHIP – The last time these two teams faced, Martinez tossed the first complete-game shutout of his career. There shouldn’t be a whole lot of resistance once again, based on the combination of how he’s been pitching and the Phillies lackluster offense. C-Mart has gone six innings in each of his last 10 starts and averaged 46.1 FDP per outing. If there is anything to be worried about it’s that the Cardinals are only -140 favorites in Vegas this time around, whereas they were -225 favorites with the same pitching matchup nearly two weeks ago. Martinez is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA in six road starts this season.

Cardinals offense:

+ Opposing players are 7-for-7 on stolen base attempts against Nola this season.

* Splits against Nola:
+ LHB: 4 HR .300 avg, .375 OBP, .460 SLG, .835 OPS
— RHB: 2 HR, .235 avg, .272 OBP, .316 SLG, .588 OPS

+ Matt Carpenter: 5-for-19 with 3 doubles, HR, 3 RBI, 10 BB and 7 runs over the last six games. Prior to last night (0 FDP), Carpenter had posted double-digit FDP in 11 of 13 games.

+ Dexter Fowler: 9-for-24 (.464 OBP) with a double, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB and 6 runs over the last six games.

+ Jedd Gyorko: 4-for-9 with 2 HR in the first two games of this series in Philly.

* BvP numbers against Nola:
— Matt Carpenter: 1-for-6, double
— Jedd Gyorko: 1-for-6, BB, 3 Ks
+ Dexter Fowler: 3-for-5, double, 2 HR
— Stephen Piscotty: 1-for-5, BB, 2 Ks

Nola: 3-5, 4.76 ERA/1.35 WHIP – Inefficiency has been keeping Nola from going deeper into games, thus not allowing him to get as many fantasy points…duh. Nola just faced these same Cardinals (going head-to-head vs C-Mart) and allowed three earned runs over five innings on 93 pitches. Nola is 1-2 at home this season with a 6.50 ERA, but the Vegas number looks surprisingly well for the Phils today and last night’s starter Nick Pivetta just fanned 10 Cardinals less than 24 hours ago…before the bullpen imploded.

Phillies offense:

* Splits against Martinez:
— RHB: 4 HR, .217 avg, .318 OBP, .336 SLG, .654 OPS
— LHB: 4 HR, .177 avg, .226 OBP, .290 SLG, .516 OPS

+ Odubel Herrera: .391 avg against the Cardinals this season. In fact, the only team he hasn’t done well against lately is the Red Sox and they’re not on the schedule today.

* BvP numbers against Martinez:
+ Odubel Herrera: 3-for-7, all singles
— Freddy Galvis: 1-for-6
— Howie Kendrick: 0-for-6, BB, 3 Ks
— Cameron Rupp: 0-for-5, 2 Ks
+ Tommy Joseph: 2-for-4, double


 

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Jose Quintana – L) @ MINNESOTA TWINS (Nik Turley – L)
CHW -118, O/U: 10

Quintana: 3-8, 5.07 ERA/1.37 WHIP – Getting the win shouldn’t be an impossible task for Quintana, but he’ll likely give up some runs on the way there. Quintana has improved since the start of June with a 3.12 ERA, but he is 0-4 against the Twins in his last five starts (including 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA this season). To make matters worse, Quintana is 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA in day games this season.

White Sox offense:

+ Jose Abreu: 9-for-25 (.429 OBP, .800 SLG, 1.229 OPS) with 3 doubles, a triple, 2 HR and 9 RBI over the last six games. Before last night (0 FDP), Abreu had posted double-digit FDP in nine of 10 games.

+ Melky Cabrera: 9-for-26 with 3 doubles, HR, 7 RBI and 5 runs over the last six games. He has only struck out once in 27 plate appearances over this span as well.

+ Matt Davidson: Despite striking out 14 times in the last 26 plate appearances, he’s posted at least 21 FDP in six of the last nine games.

+ Avisail Garcia: .364 avg, .440 OBP over the last six games – .444 avg (lots of singles) against left-handed pitching this season.

Turley: (in 2 starts) 0-1, 12.46 ERA/2.42 WHIP – He’s gotten ripped in both starts (17 hits/4 walks, 12 ER in 8.2 innings) while the White Sox have ripped left-handed pitching all season. This is probably not going to end well for Turley, considering opposing hitters have a .436 batting average against him this season.

Twins offense:

+ Eduardo Escobar: 9-for-22 (.480 OBP, .727 SLG, 1.207 OPS) with 4 doubles, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB and 3 runs over the last six games – .364 avg, 1.044 OPS/4 HR, 12 RBI against left-handed pitching this season.

+ Brian Dozier: .340 avg, 1.052 OPS/4 HR, 12 RBI against left-handed pitching this season.

+ Miguel Sano: .333 avg, 1.141 OPS/2 HR, 9 RBI against left-handed pitching this season.

* BvP numbers against Quintana:
+ Joe Mauer: 14-for-44, 2 HR, 3 BB, 6 Ks
+ Max Kepler: 5-for-13, double, triple, 3 Ks
+ Jorge Polanco: 4-for-10, HR
+ Kennys Vargas: 4-for-10, all singles, 3 Ks
— Brian Dozier: 11-for-49, 2 doubles, 4 HR, 3 BB, 13 Ks
— Eduardo Escobar: 5-for-25, all singles, 8 Ks
— Jason Castro: 5-for-21, 3 doubles, 3 BB, 5 Ks
— Miguel Sano: 3-for-19, 3 doubles, 3 BB, 6 Ks
— Robbie Grossman: 4-for-17, 2 doubles, 2 BB, 6 Ks
— Eddie Rosario: 4-for-16, all singles, 3 Ks
— Byron Buxton: 3-for-16, 2 doubles, HR, 2 Ks


 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Marcus Stroman – R) @ TEXAS RANGERS (Martin Perez – L)
TOR -127, O/U: 10.5

Stroman: 7-3, 3.15 ERA/1.25 WHIP – Coming off a start in which he allowed three homers, Stroman will look to rebound against the Rangers in Arlington. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, but the strikeouts aren’t coming at the rate we need. Stroman’s $9000 FD/$8700 DK price tag isn’t exactly cheap for a guy pitching on a hot day in Texas, but he is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA on the road this season.

Blue Jays offense:

— If things do go horrifically wrong today for the Blue Jays, we can look back to their 5-11 record against left-handed starters this season. Also, Perez faced them twice last season and only allowed one earned run over 11.1 innings.

* Splits against Perez:
+ RHB: 8 HR, .299 avg, .362 OBP, .456 SLG, .818 OPS
+ LHB: 1 HR, .354 avg, .400 OBP, .477 SLG, .877 OPS

+ Kendrys Morales: 10-for-26 (.731 SLG, 1.115 OPS) with 3 doubles, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 5 runs over the last six games.

+ Steve Pearce: 9-for-17 (.556 OBP, .882 SLG, 1.438 OPS) with 3 doubles, HR, 6 RBI and 4 runs over the last five games.

+ Justin Smoak: 9-for-23 (.462 OBP, .739 SLG, 1.201 OPS) with 2 doubles, 2 HR, 4 RBI and 7 runs over the last six games – .389 avg, .443 OBP, 1.091 OPS/5 HR, 15 RBI against left-handed pitching.

— Jose Bautista: 2-for-23 with 7 Ks over the last six games – .107 avg, 1 HR, 21 Ks in 66 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

* BvP numbers against Perez:
+ Josh Donaldson: 6-for-18 with 3 doubles, HR, 4 BB, 3 Ks
+ Justin Smoak: 6-for-14, 3 doubles, 3 BB, 4 Ks
— Kendrys Morales: 1-for-11, BB, K
— Troy Tulowitzki: 1-for-8, HR, 3 BB

Perez: 3-6, 4.72 ERA/1.64 WHIP – Just like his counterpart, this is not the place to go looking for pitching. Perez allows a ton of baserunners and the Blue Jays will likely take advantage of their RBI opportunities. He is 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA in nine starts at Globe Life Park.

Rangers offense:

* Splits against Stroman:
+ RHB: 8 HR, .277 avg, .318 OBP, .451 SLG, .769 OPS
— LHB: 2 HR, .257 avg, .315 OBP, .322 SLG, .638 OPS

+ Shin-Soo Choo: 8-for-20 (.500 OBP, .700 SLG, 1.200 OPS) with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB and 5 runs over the last five games.

+ Carlos Gomez: 6-for-19 with a double, 3 HR, 9 RBI and 6 runs over the last five games.

+ Delino DeShields: 3-for-7 with 2 doubles against Stroman (playoffs)


 

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Ivan Nova – R) @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Chase Anderson – R)
MIL -118, O/U: 9

Nova: 7-4, 2.91 ERA/1.02 WHIP – He’s coming off two straight wins (vs CHC, MIA) and gets his first matchup of the season with the Brewers, who own the fourth-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching. Incredibly, Nova has pitched six innings in all 14 starts this season, and he’s coming off four straight quality starts and two straight wins.

Pirates offense:

* Splits against Anderson:
+ RHB: .247 avg, .310 OBP, .424 SLG, .734 OPS
–  LHB: .216 avg, .281 OBP, .351 SLG, .632 OPS

+ Andrew McCutchen: 9-for-20 (.542 OBP, .950 SLG, 1.492 OPS) with a double, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB and 5 runs over the last six games.

* BvP numbers against Anderson:
–  Gregory Polanco: 4-for-19, double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 Ks
+ Andrew McCutchen: 6-for-18, double, 2 BB, 4 Ks
+ Josh Harrison: 7-for-12, 3 doubles, HR, 2 Ks
–  David Freese: 0-for-12, 5 Ks
+ Jordy Mercer: 5-for-11, double, 2 Ks
+ Francisco Cervelli: 3-for-9, double, HR

Anderson: 5-2, 2.92 ERA/1.15 WHIP – He has five straight quality starts, and surprisingly it was the Padres in his last outing that gave him the most trouble (3 ER on 2 HR in 7 innings) over that span. Maybe it was five straight outings of 100+ pitches catching up to him but it is evident that the light has finally clicked on for Anderson, who is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in seven starts at Miller Park this season. The only downside here is that the Pirates have the second-lowest K-rate against right-handed pitching.

Brewers offense:

* Splits against Nova:
+ LHB: .260 avg, .287 OBP, .403 SLG, .691 OPS
–  RHB: .230 avg, .246 OBP, .372 SLG, .618 OPS

+ Eric Sogard: 11-for-29 (.455 OBP) with 4 doubles, 3 BB and 5 runs over the last seven games.

— Eric Thames: 0-for-9 with 7 Ks in the first two games of this series. However, he has also hit 4 HR over the last seven games.

— Keon Broxton: Despite hitting 3 HR in the last 25 plate appearances, he’s also struck out 12 times.

* BvP numbers against Nova:
–  Hernan Perez: 1-for-9, double, 4 Ks
+ Travis Shaw: 4-for-6, HR


 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Zack Godley – R) @ COLORADO ROCKIES (Antonio Senzatela – R)
COL -110, O/U: 11.5

Godley: 2-1, 2.34 ERA/1.04 WHIP – He will hope to continue this streak of not allowing more than three earned runs for the ninth time in nine tries. Godley’s pitching style plays well to suppressing power, which is exactly what pitchers need at Coors Field and this will be the first start of his career there; he has pitched there twice in relief over the course of his career and allowed three earned runs in 2.2 innings. Godley has produced a great ROI in six of his eight starts this season, but today’s venue will surely put everything to the test.

Diamondbacks offense:

* Splits against Senzatela:
+ LHB: 9 HR, .258 avg, .317 OBP, .491 SLG, .807 OPS
— RHB: 4 HR, .243 avg, .300 OBP, .389 SLG, .689 OPS

+ David Peralta: 10-for-19 with a triple, HR and 6 runs over the last five games.

+ Paul Goldschmidt: 9-for-23 with 2 doubles, 2 HR, 7 RBI and 6 runs over the last five games.

+ Brandon Drury: 8-for-21 with 2 doubles and 7 RBI over the last five games.

+ Jake Lamb: 7-for-18 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI and 5 BB over the last five games.

Senzatela: 9-2, 4.10 ERA/1.21 WHIP – Last night I was a big fan of Jeff Hoffman against the D-Backs, even though the game was in Coors Field…and that wasn’t such a great idea. It’s probably not a great idea to go back to another Rockies pitcher in the high altitude, but Senzatela is 7-1 with a 3.68 ERA at Coors Field this season. I am, however, skeptical about the fact that he has coughed up 16 earned runs (6 HR) over the last 21.1 innings.

Rockies offense:

— Godley has induced the highest rate of swings on pitches outside the strike zone (10.4%) in MLB.

+ Nolan Arenado: 13-for-27 with 6 doubles, 2 triples, HR and 13 RBI over the last six games.

+ DJ LeMahieu: 15-for-27 with a double, 7 RBI and 9 runs over the last six games.

+ Raimel Tapia: 8-for-18 with a triple, 2 RBI and 4 runs over the last six games.


 

HOUSTON ASTROS (David Paulino – R) @ OAKLAND A’s (Jesse Hahn – R)
HOU -130, O/U: 10

Paulino: 1-0, 5.03 ERA/1.37 WHIP – He’s coming off the first career win in his last outing against the Red Sox, allowing one earned run in six innings. Sure, the A’s can strike out with the best of them but they also have plenty of pop that can make life rough on Paulino.

Astros offense:

— Hahn has only allowed 1 HR in 65.2 innings this season.

+ Jose Altuve: 8-for-23 with 3 doubles, HR, 4 BB and 4 runs over the last six games.

+ Carlos Correa: 8-for-23 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB and 4 runs over the last six games.

* BvP numbers against Hahn:
— Evan Gattis: 2-for-12, double, HR, BB, 2 Ks
+ George Springer: 5-for-10, all singles, 3 Ks
+ Brian McCann: 4-for-8, HR

Hahn: 3-4, 3.56 ERA/1.32 WHIP – He seems like a different pitcher since returning from the disabled list, and the 2-0 record/2.81 ERA over the last three starts would certainly support that. Hahn has done an excellent job of suppressing power so far this season, but we all know the Astros can certainly rattle his cage.

A’s offense:

* Splits against Paulino:
+ LHB: .314 avg, .351 OBP, .486 SLG, .837 OPS
— RHB: .256 avg, .304 OBP, .535 SLG, .839 OPS

+ Matt Joyce: 9-for-20 (.542 OBP, .750 SLG, 1.292 OPS) with 3 doubles, HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB and 5 runs over the last six games.


 

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