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The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Pocono

Let’s do this! Pocono is a really fun and unique track, this means there is going to be opportunity for edge. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. The dom station has been so valuable these last few weeks so I am hoping to keep that mojo going!

Top Plays

Kyle Busch – This should come as a surprise to no one. To say Kyle has been knocking on the door of a win would be an understatement, and it’s clear they brought a wicked car this weekend. He has dominated all the practice sessions and will roll off first on Sunday. His track history isn’t that impressive, but lets be honest – Kyle Busch is just good everywhere. He is my pick to win and lead a bunch of laps doing it.

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie just makes it so easy sometimes. Pocono is by no means Jimmies best track, but he is coming in hot off an impressive Dover victory, but heres the kicker – he is starting 19th. He has been top ten in practice so far this weekend and stands a good chance to compete for the W. Don’t play Jimmie expecting him to dominate though, as that has clearly not been his M-O this year. Look for him to sneak toward the front as the race nears the final stage.

Chase Elliott – I guess the Hendrick cars just didn’t have it tuned in for qualifying this week, huh? Though Chase doesn’t have a wealth of experience when it comes to the tricky triangle, he has impressed here before – even winning an Arca race here. Chase’s most appealing attribute this week is his 25th starting spot. By the time it was all said and done in final practice Chase was working with top ten speed – look for that to carry over to the race on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne/Dale Jr – I should have just said “anyone out of the Hendrick camp”, eh? Both these guys, JR in particular, have really great Pocono resumes backed up by really poor starting spots. Though they haven’t impressed speedwise, I think they have the experience and prowess to make their way into the top 15 pretty quickly – and I think JR could compete for a top five if they get that thing dialed in. Be careful, I expect JR will be very highly owned this weekend, and think Kahne may be the safer play anyways.

Confusing Plays

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex official starting spot will be second, but he will start from the back after an engine change. This is worrisome. Pocono is a very demanding track when it comes to engine, and it’s a very hard track to pass at. Truex will have his work cut out for him trying to navigate back to the front of the field. Will he get there? Almost certainly. The question is how much stress he will put on the backup engine in the process. It’s a tempting fade no doubt. Here’s the thing though – you will be able to get Truex at a pretty low ownership in a year where he is far and away the fastest car at the track week in and week out. Still, with that in mind, dominating this race will be  tough when you have to go through 39 cars to do it.

Bubba Wallace – I am huge Bubba Wallace fan, and I would love to play him this week, but its just so hard to do for a few reason. The first and foremost being he had a really great qualifying effort considering the circumstances. Secondly, Bubba has a tall order making his debut at Pocano – a track that is often described as one of the hardest on the circuit. Combine that with Bubbas high risk driving style, and it becomes a very tempting fade. However, Bubba is a warrior and has a knack for performing in crunch time. This is by no means a full fade, but proceed with caution.

Value Plays

Kasey Kahne – SEE ABOVE

Dale Jr. – SEE ABOVE

Ty Dillon – Ty is REALLY good on these long flat tracks. If he stays out of trouble, which he usually does, he will certainly improve on his 27th qualifying effort. He is as close to a lock as we have at the price range. Also consider his crew chiefs propensity for bold strategy calls. This race is almost certainly going to be affected by saavy strategy, and few do it better than Bootie Barker.

Reed Sorenson – This is my favorite punt play of the week. A perennial afterthought – the number 15 Premium Motorsports collective have shown some legitmate prowess the last couple weeks. If nothing else, they are attempting to finish races, and starting 36th at $5500 you can’t really ask for much more. Barring anying mechanical failures, which is certainly a possibility, Sorenson should move into the top 30 by days end.

So there it is folks, use that to start your research. This race could go so many different ways depending on how cautions fall, so we will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.