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Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Erin Hills – Course preview
It’s finally US Open time! The tour heads to Erin Hills in Wisconsin. If you have not heard of this course before that is because it has never actually played host to the US Open before. Erin Hills was constructed in 2006 and has only hosted the 2011 U.S. Amateur. As a new event, there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the course and what type of player will succeed here so let’s break it all down.
This year, and as we have come expect with the US Open the course is long. Erin Hills will be playing at 7,741 yards; longer than anything we are used to seeing on tour. The par 72 course features four par 4’s over 500 yards and three of four par fives over 600 yards. For exact hole lengths, the image below presents the length of each and every hole.
For those who want an even greater understanding of the course and holes, Erin Hill’s website has a terrific hole by hole flyover to give you a grasp of exactly what the players will be dealing with.
Looking at the distance naturally, leads us to believe that bombers will dominate. With the sheer length of the holes players who can get the ball our further will have an advantage. However, there is some trouble in fescue if players have a drive that is way off. See Wesley Bryans tweet or Kevin Na’s Instagram for an example of what the pros will be dealing with. The fescue plays rather far from the fairways, especially with the changes today to four of the holes, but if players are off we will see some big numbers.
Although the fescue is close to the rough the fairways are wide for the most part. Players will have an opportunity to bomb the ball but one high score can make a huge difference in finishing performances.
As a result, I will be prioritizing driving distance as a key stat this week. This stat is always important but if players are having trouble off of the tee this week it really will not matter how good the rest of their game is. Because of the width of fairways, I am leaning towards targeting distance more than accuracy, however, I believe accuracy will also be crucial to avoid fescue and the big number that can take you out of the tournament. Overall, for the shots gained: off the tee I will be looking at the overall metric while heavily weighting the distance aspect.
If players find their way to the fairway (or punch out from the fescue) they are presented with the challenge of approaching the green. Aside from hole #1 and #17, we see treacherous greenside bunkers. Unlike many courses we see on tour where players are comfortable missing in the sand you do not want to with the deep bunkers.
The greens, like in most US Open’s have lots of slope which will cause many balls to roll off. This makes approaches that much more important; being a few feet further than another player can be the difference between a birdie putt and scrambling for par. As a result, I will be prioritizing shots gained: approach this week.
Specifically, I will be taking into consideration approaches from greater than 200 yards. With such a long course players will have lots of long iron shots regardless of how far they can drive the ball.
As mentioned earlier with sloping greens and the overall length of the course even the best players will be scrambling this week. Well shots gained: around the green is usually less of an indicator of success than the other shots gained metrics it will be important this week. Players won’t be hitting greens like we are used to seeing and a player that routinely loses strokes around the green could be in for big trouble this week.
The greens are bentgrass for the weekend and as always with the US Open, they will be fast. Although putting can sometimes be random finding the players who are good at bentgrass, fast greens and have been putting well recently can lead you to find the guys who will gain strokes on the greens this week.
Erin Hills Picks!
Henrik Stenson – GPP – (DK: $9300 FD: $9100)
It would have been hard to believe a year ago that Stenson is being touted as a GPP play over a cash game play by anybody. After a string of missed cuts, it appears as if Stenson has found his game again – with finishes of T16, T3, and T26 in his last three starts worldwide. When Stenson is on he is one of the best in the world tee-to-green and is exceptional with long irons. This has been on display over the years but shown perfectly at Chambers Bay in 2015. Stenson carded the lowest total round of the tournament on day one with a 65 but struggled the rest of the week on route to a T27 finish.
One more thing going for Stenson; he is leading in our VIP Spreadsheet field adjusted stats for strokes gained putting.If Stenson can put it together for four days he can find himself in contention for his second major.
Louis Oosthuizen – All formats – (DK: $7400 FD: $8400)
Although his price on DraftKings makes Oosthuizen more appealing there than on FanDuel I will still be including Oosthuizen in line-ups on both sites. All of the stats I am keying in on this weekend Louis checks out on. He has gained strokes in all four shot tracking metrics, has a mixture of length and accuracy off of the tee and throughout his career has outperformed the competition with long approaches. According to our VIP Spreadsheet Oosthuizen is one of four players to be gaining strokes once field adjusted in all of our tracked categories. Erin Hills has drawn many comparisons to Chambers Bay and although they are different Oosthuizen’s T2 at Chambers bodes well for him here.
From a cash perspective, Oosthuizen has made 9/9 cuts this season with all finishes inside of the top 50. With a low downside at his price, he is a great option. In GPP’s due to all of the top players playing Oosthuizen’s ownership should not be that high and if he has a performance similar to Chambers Bay in 2015.
Matt Kuchar – All formats – (DK: $7600 FD: $8600)
Kuchar is coming into Erin Hills in great form; making seven straight cuts with five finishes inside of the top 12. Kuchar is not the longest hitter on tour but his mixture of distance and accuracy will be a major asset for the week. I think his lack of distance off of the tee will scare off some of the field and allow you to get a great player at a great price with suppressed ownership. Back to the Chambers Bay comparison, Kuchar finished T12 there in 2015 and is primed for a solid finish this week.
Francesco Molinari – All formats – (DK: $7000 FD: $7800)
Molinari fits the Kuchar mould of players who will get overlooked because they do not bomb the ball. None the less Francesco has been dominant this year tee-to-green ranking 4
th on tour with other elite players. Although it would be nice to have the extra 15-20 yards off of the tee I’ll take the stability of Molinari who is 2nd in driving accuracy this season. At Chambers in 2015 Molinari finished T27 but this season he is a new player.
There are plenty of other viable options including obvious plays at the top such as Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth. Throughout the week our team at DFS Army along with dedicated, insightful members keep the conversation going throughout the week in our VIP slack channel. With the code WIN it is free for 7 days; what better time to sign up then the second major of the year?
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