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At the end of this article is a link to a new challenge I’m starting this week. Follow along by giving it a read!
Quick Glance
Quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow! He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice. I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky. When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys). Also, find his page on site at DFS MLB Weather.
MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups
The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside. I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction. I tie-break with price. If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one. The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win. Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!
Jose Berrios (MIN) – For once we get a MIN pitcher to recommend instead of target with bats! Vegas is telling us to pay some attention to this matchup, and with a solid KScore of 474 I can see why. The White Sox aren’t a great team and seem to have cooled off a touch from last week. The salary is higher than I’d like, but the potential is there.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – When it comes to similar factors (identical KScore to Berrios and damned near identical salary), I will look to other factors to break the tie. Vegas gives less love to Carrasco here, so I’d lean away from him. However, it’s really splitting hairs. Another thing you could do is look into both his recent form and see if he’s tested his ceiling a few times, or you can even look back to facing BAL specifically and see if you can pick up on anything there. These are both too deep for this type of article, but both factors are easy enough to find if you use the google machine.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) – Lower price, same Vegas money line, much lower KScore, but more consistent run support this year. Montgomery stacks up ok as a pivot play off the other two if you really need the money for cash type games.
Jeff Hoffman (COL) – This is your #RideTheLightning play of the day! Dipping into Coors isn’t fun, but when you have solid indicators and nothing around them that compares, sometimes you just have to suit up and hop on. If you are a GPP player, this takes out ARI for bats, but it allows a COL 3-man stack and they are in a good spot today, as you will see below. There are plenty of other bats floating around in high scoring games to make this work if ARI doesn’t get to Hoffman for 5 or 6 runs. That KScore is actually the highest on the slate today.
Soft Pitching to Attack
Next, we start looking to bats. We start the process by finding the softer pitching. Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers. If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms. Someone will answer it quickly for you. I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50. I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list. NOTE: Opponents will now be in parentheses.
Over 5.00 SIERA – Guerra (PIT), Gausman (CLE), Hill (NYM), Holmberg (@MIN), Verlander (@SEA)
Over 4.50 SIERA – Ross (TOR), Williams (@MIL), Newcomb (SFG), Pivetta (STL), Pill (@LAD)
Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats
Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats. Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score. They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters. I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase). If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.
NEW – bold players have what I’m calling #200on200 matchups. This means the pitcher gives up a .200 iso, or better, to a particular handedness to a batter and the batter has a .200 iso, or better, on his career vs the handedness of the pitcher. This is proving to be an ideal power matchup. Remember, soft pitching matching up against power hitting leads to boomskies.
COL – TAPPIA, CARGO, DESMOND, STORY, ARENADO, lemahieu, blackmon
ARI right – GOLDY, blanco, peralta, lamb
NYY right – SANCHEZ, HOLLIDAY, judge
LAD – BELLINGER, PEDERSON, TURNER, TAYLOR, SEAGER, PUIG
CLE – RAMIREZ, EE, CHISENHALL, JACKSON, zimmer
MIL both – THAMES, SHAW, SOGARD, BROXTON, arcia, pina
Honorable Mentions: TEX, MIN, TOR, NYM, STL both
For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP. Yes, membership has it’s privileges. Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!
#DongCall!!
We played a fun little game last year where I posted a picture of my DFS MLB “Dong Call” of the day. I tried to make the picture obscure enough it wasn’t just giving you the player’s name. My #DongCall is pictured below. Who is it? Give me a follow and tweet me @ChoppoDong if you know, and tweet me yours, too!
Yesterday’s #DongCall was Trey Mancini (BAL)…. For today, all three are viable and hot right now. However, one of them is the most consistent source of home runs in the league this year…
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Don’t forget to use the coupon code WIN to unlock your free 7-day all access pass. See you inside!! And, if you like Bankroll Challenge articles, you will love the one I just started today… click on #BankrollChallenge to read it next.