Welcome to the first day of results for our #BankrollChallenge! If you follow any of my writing/coaching from the DFS Army, or follow me on Twitter, you will quickly see I’m a pretty simplistic guy. I focus on Bankroll Management, Contest Selection, and the fundamentals of constructing solid and competitive lineups. I believe the rest is left up to luck and skill will play out in the long run………a run that is much longer than any of the newer players can fathom.
I started the #BankrollChallenge because it’s a common theme people like to read. It seems people like following along when others share their triumphs and their perils. Well, I’m going to try and teach from my challenge, and today provides the perfect starting point. If you need a refresher on the format for the challenge, and the why behind it, read the original piece here.
PRE GAME
The concept last night was simple. I noticed a pitcher giving up a high ISO to opposing hitters on both sides of the plate. He happened to be facing the Royals. The Royals, as a result, had a high implied run total from Vegas. This helped boost my confidence in grabbing some value from normally cheap and unpopular bats. We had some pricey pieces on the slate with Kershaw and Kluber pitching, along with Dodgers, Nationals, Indians, and other expensive bats. No one was going to be able to fit them all. I liked Cleveland bats as a stack, and I liked some Dodgers, too. To afford those, there was no way to use Kershaw, which I was fine with. I knew dropping to Peacock was going to be how most people would reach those brand name bats. I felt offsetting with KC Royals would help me get to Jon Lester, also in a great spot and a huge favorite to win.
Now, I don’t typically worry much about ownership. As you follow along, you’ll notice I find it an overrated concept in general these days. However, when you find a really sneaky way to avoid the pack, it will definitely set you apart in GPPs. I saw Brandon Moss at $2300 and an otherwise expensive position. Moss had a .200+ ISO and was facing a pitcher giving up a .350+ ISO to that side of the plate. The clear heavy hitters at 1B last night were all in the high $3000s, so this immediately set me apart and allowed me to spend up where others would have to search for value. I loved the numbers from Salvie Perez, Moss, Bonifacio, and Torres. Too bad three of them were scratched for the night! This put me in a serious lurch, and may have resulted in mistakes.
THE PIVOT
There wasn’t much pivoting in the GPP. The pivots came from the cash aspect of The Hedge. Instead of running the same lineup in both a 10man league and the GPP, I immediately went where I knew I had a better shot at making some money in case the GPP lineup failed. I broke up that $5 allocation to leagues into 5 separate $1 lineups. I wanted a little upside, too, so entered them in 20man contests that pay 10X for a victory. I fell short in one due to time and had to enter it in a 100man contest. I picked what I felt was the more risky lineup and dropped it in. No worries at all. I only needed one lineup to do well and save the entire night……the beauty of The Hedge.
That’s where things get fun. While I didn’t cash in the GPP, it provided the perfect teachable moment for what I preach. I constantly beat the drum that small leagues are where it’s at in MLB and that you will win them more often and be rewarded with better returns than the same lineup in bigger GPPs. I want to take the rest of the piece today and show you how this played out. I apologize in advance if you can’t see it all on your mobile device. Get to a PC at some point today….it’s worth it if you want to learn.
This is hopefully the default results graphic. Notice my score and placement in the GPP, the mincash score, and now the fun part…. 5% wins 20man leagues, 1% wins 100man leagues, and of course the last number was the winner in the GPP. Let’s look at how those numbers did. I’m going to post the results of all the leagues I entered and we will discuss them at the end.
LINEUP 1 – 20MAN
Looking at the very top graphic, you see the 5% score is 180.8. A 5% score should give us a chance to beat 20 people….1 in 20 is 5%. Here it would have blown them all away and won the league.
LINEUP 2 – 20MAN
More of the same. 180.8 wins again. You can see my best lineup of the night brought back $5 of the $10 I had invested. I’ll take those all night long. Eventually, I will hit a GPP score that will repair any of this minor damage. And, more often than that, I will hit these 20man leagues for victories and bring back the full $10. Not coincidentally, this was the 3rd lineup I built on the night. This means had I stuck with just one lineup, all $10 washes down the drain. Building multiple lineups indirectly saved my night, as it often does……and will yours.
LINEUP 3 – 20MAN
Another winner for the 5% score of 180.8! Are you seeing my point?
LINEUP 4 – 20MAN
Yes, occasionally, you will run into a beast. Nothing you can do about it. The smaller the contest, the more the variance between 1st and 2nd place. However, you had a shot with your top 5% score and would have unluckily taken 2nd place here. But, as you can see, the 180 would have taken down 3 of the 4 leagues. It was more than good enough.
LINEUP 5 – 100MAN
Along that theme, we have a 100man where a top 12% lineup gets paid. You can see the 5% score of 180.8 would have placed 7th for $4….about right on track. Now, let’s focus on the 1% score from the top graphic and see how it would have performed. Remember, there is some variance from league to league, but overall you should notice the 1% score has a shot to win….if not, it wins. Here that score was 215.6 and that was very close to a win. 2nd place ain’t bad! I think we’ve proven our concept that the scores placing in the top 5% and 1% of GPPs have a shot at winning the corresponding leagues.
RESULTS
What I want to quickly explain to you here is the comparison between the leagues and the GPP. The GPP took a 246 to win and that’s great. However, what did 215 win? In the GPP, it won 2.5X your buy in for $12.50….mincash. We saw it would have won 15X your buy in for 2nd place in the 100man league. And, honestly with a little luck, it wins the full 25X. It also would have won 10X your buy in from 20man leagues most times. You simply have to build much more rare lineups to do well in GPPs than leagues.
What you are going to see through the course of this challenge is that the GPP actually serves to drain my bankroll unless I get really fucking lucky and nail one good. You will see that grinding leagues is where your edge is…….and you will eventually connect the dots as to why 90% of the big DFS pros sprinkle GPPs into what is a overly dominant cash game contest allocation.
Keep following. I won’t play today because I hate large slates. But, I will likely fire up another set of lineups on Wednesday’s main slate when I find another $5 GPP like last night’s. If you got something from this, please consider joining the DFS Army where we coach these concepts, and please retweet this series to help me find more eyeballs as I coach the fundamentals to all DFS players!