The Competition Caution 2017 NASCAR DFS Sonoma Preview

With half the races left in the season, it time to turn right into Wine Country! This week we head to the first road course of the year – the 1.99 mile animal known as Sonoma. I love road course racing because of the immense challenge it presents drivers who get limited time to perfect the art of going left and right. It is going to be a tremendous weekend and one where we stand to have a huge edge if we approach it correctly.  As always, let’s begin by taking a look at Sonoma:

1.99 mile Road Course with 10 turns
218.9 miles, 110 laps [350 kilometers]
Stages: stage 1 ends lap 25; stage 2 ends lap 50; final stage ends lap 110 (unless OT)
Pit Road/Stalls: 16′ wide by 29′ long, 58′ wide
Pit Road Speed: 40 mph
Pace Car Speed: 45 mph

There is so much to talk about this week, but I am going to save the actual predicting until after practice. For now, I just want to talk about Road Course racing in gereral, and some new names we will see this week.

 

Road Course Racing

So step one to solving the puzzle we are being presented with this week is understanding how Road Course Racing differs from our typical oval weeks – and yes, it’s more than just turning left and right! The buzzword of the week will no doubt be strategy. This is because the time in takes to get around this course means you can pit at pretty much anytime without going a lap down. This has led to a trend of what is called “running the race backwards” or “trying to cross the finish line with exactly no fuel in your gas tank, in order to minimize your time on pit road. We can expect lots of teams to employ this strategy this weekend more than ever since they can also use the planned stage cautions to map out their race. Every team will have a different strategy to get through this weekend, which means the fastest cars may not find their way to the front if their strategy isn’t lit.

Why is strategy so important at Sonoma? Because road course racing doesn’t present a lot of opportunity for on track passing outside of restarts. Once the field has been undergreen for 2 or 3 laps you are no longer racing the other 39 drivers, you are racing the track trying to put down the fastest lap you can time after time. If you are able to hot lap faster than the car infront of you, good luck getting by him. Without getting the bumpers involved (which isn’t out of the question), Sonoma only presents three real opportunities to make a true efficient pass per lap. We already established that we will probably only see 90 green flag laps at the most, and now consider you will only be in a position to pass 20% of the time (that’s probably a generous estimate). Add this all up and you’ll see that each driver will only have around 54 opportunities to make an ontrack pass ALL DAY on Sunday. When we look at average quality passes, we can see that the best driver in the field only capitalizes on these opportunities 50% of the time.

It all adds up to a big old heaping helping of “were gonna need strategy to move forward”, and strategy is difficult to project. But more on that later.

Another quick note I want to make about road course racing is that not every road course is the same. Infact the two road course we know, Sonoma and Watkins Glen, really couldn’t be more different. Sonoma is all about patience and finesse, whereas Watkins Glen is about aggression and grit. When the media says “that driver is a good road course racer”, we really need to investigate which kind of road course they are good at. Of course there are individuals who are good at both, but there is also people who are better at one than the other. Don’t lean too much on stats from Watkins Glen when attacking this slate.

“Road Course Ringers”

At the time of publishing, DraftKings hadn’t released pricing for the week. When that pricing does come out, expect to see some names you don’t recognize, and some names you do recognize priced higher than usual. I’ll dive into this a little more during the Sway Bar, but heres a quick rundown of the newbies.

AJ Allmendnger – AJ is by no means a newbie, but he is poised to be priced a bit higher than he usually is this week. This is thanks to his reputation as a “road course ace”…and he is!…at Watkins Glen. You are going to hear a lot about how AJ is a favourite this week and how elite of a road course racer he is. He will probably practice really well and maybe even qualify in the top five, but when you dig into his FINISHES at Sonoma, it tells a grim tale. In his 7 starts at Sonoma AJ has only two top tens, no top fives, and a best finish of 7th. His average finish is 20th! TWENTIETH! For whatever reason, as good as AJ is at a lot of different types of road course, Sonoma just isn’t his cup of tea. That is not to say he won’t be a contender this weekend, but I would lower your expectations a little.

Kevin O’Connell – Driving the 15 that we usually see Reed Sorenson in will be Kevin O’ Connell, a perennial “road course ace” making his MENCS debut this weekend. O’Connell’s career highlight is third place finish at Road America in the xFinity series back in 2014. However, he has never drove a national touring car at Sonoma. His lack of MENCS experience coupled with his less than stellar equipment is enough for me to write off O’Connell this weekend, pending practice results.

Alon Day – Another driver making their MENCS debut, Alon Day has driven about every type of car under the sun – including Formula Three, Indy Lights, xFinity and Camping World Trucks. This week he will pilot the number 23 car we usually see Gray Gaulding and Ryan Sieg. Day certainly has some talent, and the equipment won’t be the worst in the field, but I am always wary of drivers stepping into a MENCS car for the first time. Just look at what happened with Bubba Wallace at Pocono. I am interested to see competent Day looks in practice, and will be referencing him more as my content comes out later in the week.

Boris Said – SAIDHEADS REJOICE THE KING IS BACK. Boris Said is a TRUE road course ringer with over 50 MENCS starts, almost all of them at either Watkins Glen or Sonoma. Said is an incredible talent that comes with poise and experience, and has an average finish of 27.2 in his last 5 tries at Sonoma. Here’s the problem – he will probably qualify in the top 25, which negates any place differential potential. I love Boris Said, but I think his single lap speed will outweigh his benefits when the long runs start.

Billy Johnson – Another guy making his MENCS debut, and probably the only ringer that inspires some confidence in me this week. From the sport car world, along with limited xFinity experience, Billy Johnson is a generational type racer. He is UBER UBER talented and will pilot the number 43 car we usually see Aric Almirola in (don’t worry, Bubba will be back next week). It will be interesting to see where Johnson gets priced this week, because he has real top 15 potential. I have no doubt Johnson will be able to put together some fast laps, its just a matter of how well he takes to the other intricacies of the MENCS series.

Josh Bilicki – Yet another sports car guy making his MENCS debut. Here’s the rub – despite how talented he may be, he is drivng the #51 Cody Ware/Timmy Hill machine. Going to be tough to play him this week.

Tommy Regan – Taking over for Derrick Cope this week is Tommy Regan. A really curious case because well he does have some Truck series experience, he has never made a road course start in any of the top three series. Regardless, he is in Derrick Copes car so…you know.

So there you have it, everything you need to know about the newbies. If I had to rank them in terms of vitality, it would probably go Johnson, Said, Day, O’Connell, Bilicki and then Regan – but that could change after practice and qualifying. As we talked about, strategy is going to reign come Sunday, so Taco and I are working hard to see who that benefits most. Make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back Friday for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.