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The Competition Caution 2017 NASCAR DFS Pocono Preview

MFW LAST WEEK AT DOVER

Good lord we had a good week! The DFS Army dominated Dover with a couple of big GPP top tens, a couple GPP wins, and a $300 ticket win. The projections were spot on and The Sway Bar article identified 4/6 of the drivers in the optimal – including Danica and Jamie Mac. We are riding high into one of the strangest tracks on the circuit – Pocono. The “Tricky Triangle” as it’s known features three very distinct corners and three straightways that differ in size and speed. It’s a tough race to finish, and even tougher to win. As always – there are drivers we can expect a good day out of regardless. But first, let take a closer look at Pocono:

Superspeedway: 2.5 mile tri-oval
Track/Race Length: 2.5 tri-oval, 160 laps, 400 miles
Stage 1 ends lap 50; Stage 2 end lap 100; Final stage lap 160
Pit Road Speed: 55mph
Pace Car Speed: 65mph
Fuel Window: 33-36 laps

First thing to note is we only have 160 laps to play with this week, which means place differential will be at a premium. This makes for a very chalky week, so finding a way to differentiate from the crowd will be essential to take down GPPs. Also take note of the track length – 2.5 miles. It takes nearly a minute to get around this long course, so lead laps cars are not hard to find. Expect to see a lot of lead lap contenders come Sunday.

First off take a look at last years first Pocono race.

So if you go back and mine that stats, the average starting postion in this optimal was 17th! The highest starter, Matt Kenseth who rolled off third before finishing seventh, logged 31 laps led and 22 fast laps. Elliott and Kurt Busch also found some dominator time off of less than stellar qualifying efforts. So along with three “mini-dominators” we had Kyle Larson who was guided by a +10 place differential, Bayne who clicked off +11 place differential, and AJ who was good for a +16 place differential. So put it all together and we want to look for 2-3 guys who can dominate, and 2-3 value type plays who stand to gain 10-12 positions by the time the checkered flag waves. Cool.

Now there was another Pocono race in 2016, but we can write it off completely. During that race, it started raining half way through green flag pit stops and the race was called official. This led a Chris Buescher win and a Regan Smith top five, along with a lot of other weird finishes. I mean just look at this nonsense.

It was a weird race. One thing to note across both these races is that the stud in practice didn’t seem to be the stud come race time. Granted, both of these races were affected by rain – but I think it will be viable to fade practice time in favor of strong track history and potential place differential. So who can we look at for potential dominators? Let’s go to the Driver Rating.

Yes you are reading that right – Kurt Busch is back on the menu! No one puts together these three corners better than Big Busch. Ignoring races where he found trouble – he as an average finish of 6th since 2013. He is always a contender at Pocono and given his recent resurgence into relevance, I think he will be a strong play this week.

Speaking of getting it done at Pocono – Denny Hamlin knows his way around too. The first two times Denny stepped foot on Pocono Raceway, he qualified and finished first – in large part thanks to Nascar Racing Season 2003 for the PC, but thats a story for another day. While DH boasts an impressive 12.1 average finish ALL TIME at Pocono, he hasn’t had that success as of late, espically considering how well he usually qualifies here. Given his 2017 struggles, I am not super excited about Denny unless his qualifying effort is poor.

Kyle Larson is another one we will have to keep a close eye on this week, as we do every week. In his six starts at Pocono he has finished no worse than 12th and has led laps in four of those races. Now consider his supercharged 2017 campaign and it’s not hard to tell Kyle Larson will be a weapon this weekend.

Next, my favorite value finding stat – quality passes. Pocono is a trick place to move forward, and if any of the drivers on this list qualify poorly it should instantly put them on our radar. Most notable here is Mr. Kidney Stone himself – Ryan Newman. Flyin’ Ryan is a straight savage on Pocono for a couple reasons. The first and foremost being he is just fast on big tracks like this. Secondly, he is impossible to pass on a track that lends itself to tough passing anyways, and thirdly – he is one of the few drivers in the field that transcends Poconos natural “no pass” presence. Cross your fingers for an outside the top 20 starting spot for Newman, because that will be one pick taken care of.

Flipping through that list, let your finger fall on Clint Bowyer too. Clint has had success at Pocono, and can get around cars there. His equipment and performance have been much improved latley, though his luck has been a bit garbage. Look for Clint to buck that trend, and if he can find his way outside the top 15 come green flag Sunday, plug him in!

Another driver who isn’t really hoping off the page this week, but stands to have a pretty good run is Ty Dillion. Ty really excels at these big tracks, and if you dig deep enough you can find some stats to support this. Ty is coming off a couple really strong performances, and should have equipment far better than his price. As always, this will come down to starting spot – but keep on eye on Ty this weekend.

There is it is folks, start there! Make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back tonight for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.

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