Turn off the lights, were going back to nice hot, slick racing this weekend at Dover, Delaware. This is a really fun racetrack full of action so we are in for an amazing week. Make sure you check back all week for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast on Friday, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Dover International.
Track Specifications:
Superspeedway: 1.0-mile oval
Track/Race Length: 1.0 concrete oval, 400 laps, 400 miles
Banking: turns: 24°; straights: 9°
Straights: Front stretch – 1,076 feet; Backstretch – 1,076 feet
Pit Road Speed: 35mph
Pace Car Speed: 45mph
As you can see, Dover is a one mile concrete bullring – think Bristol on steroids. Bigger, faster and just as dangerous. For a one miler, Dover is incredibly fast. This means if you crash, you are probably going to take some damage, this is going to put a premium on drivers with a history of low incidents. Additionally, Dover is a track that traditionally features a lot of comers and goers. Sure, there is a good chance one driver will click off 125+ laps led, but there is also a chance we have a handful of drivers click off 50+ laps aswell.
Dover isn’t really world-known for it’s competitive nature, but it does lend it self to potential place differential plays. Take a look at last springs race at Dover.
Some notes to take from this info:
- You’ll notice that the top five all started outside of the top nine, and this isn’t really an outlier.
- Dover has a way of picking drivers from the back and throwing them to the front.
- Look at all the drivers that led significant laps. Kenseth, Larson, Keselowski, Truex Jr., and Harvick all led 40+ laps.
- This race had a huge pile-up crash that took out a lot of good cars.
Now, let’s look at last fall.
Some notes to take from this info:
- Less place differential here, but still some notable plays including Elliott, Dillon, and Gordon.
- Alot less competitive, only Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson led significant laps.
- This race was a real snoozer, and only six cars ended up on the lead lap.
The takeaway from this is that this can be a bit of tumultuous race. However, we can find respite in the consistencies. There WILL be a 100+ lap leader, and there WILL be a lights out place differential play. Now there isn’t much we can do about place differential until qualifying takes place. So until then, lets find some dominators.
You see that guy up at the top? “Jimmy Johanson” or whatever? He is really good here! Can you believe that!? If you stayed up and watched the Coke 600, you heard Johnson say that Dover is his favorite track, and the stats back that up. Average running position, finishing position, driver rating, laps led and fast laps since 2005 are all topped by JJ. As such – he is priced accordingly topping the salary scale for the first time in a long wild. How Johnson was pretty quiet here in 2016, but I wouldn’t let that scare you. Johnson is just an animal at Dover and is the favorite to dominate this race. What’s more? Bristol is probably the most comparable track to Dover, which Jimmie Johnson won earlier this year.
So looking at fastest laps, if we ignore that “James Johnson” guy, there are a couple other guys that correlate in terms of fast laps and running position. The first one that sticks out is Matt Kenseth, who has really been turning it on these last couple weeks. He qualified well for the Coke 600, and stuck around the top five nearly all night, so he has some momentum. This is a great track for him, and at the comparable track earlier this year – he brought home his best finish of the season. He is priced pretty fairly this week, so keep an eye on him.
Kyle Busch is another guy jumping off the page, but doesn’t he always? Average finish of 14th and an average running place 10th is nothing to scoff at, pair that with 5.5% of laps led at Dover – Ky. Busch is going to be a factor this week.
Next, I wanna chat briefly about a couple of guys who aren’t jumping off the page here: Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. These guys have been dominating this year, and they were the dominators back at Bristol. They don’t carry the best stats at Dover, but those are deceiving. Both drivers have been competitors here (and everywhere), and will continue to do so this weekend.
Lastly, I want to look at Driver Rating to see who is a candidate to be a solid value or low owned play. The bell of the ball from that standpoint will be Clint Bowyer. Bowyer performs lights out at Dover no matter what kind of equipment he is in – and he is in great equipment this weekend. I also like Newman, Kahne, Stenhouse and Menard as guys who can get around here. I’m also going to keep my eyes on Regan Smith and Erik Jones as we work through practice.
So in summary – look at Johnson, Kenseth, Ky. Busch, Larson and Truex Jr. as your lap leaders, and Bowyer, Newman, Kahne, Stenhouse and Menard as some value candidates. I will have so much more to add to this after practice and the xFinity race, so make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back tonight for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.
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