Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Brandon McCarthy who had a very solid outing of 20.9 DKFP which was good enough for 3.4x value! For our infielder free square, we had Yasmani Grandal who also had a phenomenal night by netting us 22 DKFP which was good enough for 7.5x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Jose Bautista who didn’t do anything at the plate last night. We didn’t go 3 for 3 but had two solid squares.
Tonight
We have 11-games on the docket for this Wednesday night slate. On the pitching side of things we have two guys who are priced over 10k and after that, it is pretty spread out with not a ton of aces taking the mound tonight. On the hitting side of things, we have Coors Field in play and a couple of other high implied run totals. I think this is going to be an interesting slate tonight so let’s dive right into the free squares:
Free Squares
- James Paxton SP SEA ($7,700)
- James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Detroit Tigers at home in Safeco Field tonight. The Mariners are currently -140 favorite and the Tigers have an implied run total of 3.94 runs. Paxton started off the year really hot but has gotten roughed up a bit in his last few starts. He has the following advanced numbers: .217 wOBA given up to lefties, .286 wOBA given up to righties, 26.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 30.7 Hard%, 3.86 SIERA, and a 3.68 xFIP. Despite some recent bad starts, he has solid numbers overall on the year. He will be facing the Detroit Tigers who have been averaging right around 4.81 runs per game. They have the following ranks against left-handed pitchers on the season: 16th in BB%, 21st in K%, 10th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 10th in wOBA, and 7th in wRC+. The Tigers are a pretty solid hitting team but get a bit of a downgrade by playing in Safeco tonight. For the place and for the slate I think James Paxton is unequivocally the best SP2 on DraftKings tonight.
- Miguel Sano 3B MIN ($3,900)
- Miguel Sano and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher David Holberg tonight at Target Field. The Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.43 runs. Sano is having a solid season and has tremendous upside everytime he is up to bat. Let’s take a look at how he has fared against left-handed pitching this season: 16.1 BB%, 29.0 K%, 1.089 OPS, .327 ISO, .443 wOBA, 180 wRC+, and a 50.0 Hard%. Yea he is absolutely crushing lefties this season. He will take on David Holmberg who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: .253 wOBA, 15.5 K%, 10.7 BB%, 5.44 xFIP, and a 37.1 Hard%. I think Sano is simply way too cheap tonight factoring in the matchup. He has a ton of upside tonight and I love him as a one off and love a Twins stack tonight.
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL ($3,600)
- Carlos Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Taijuan Walker at home in Coors Field Tonight. The Rockies have a huge implied run total sitting at right around 6.19 runs. CarGo isn’t having the year we would expect out of him but I still like him in the matchup tonight. He has the following numbers against right-handers this season: 13.1 BB%, 17.7 K%, .709 OPS, .149 ISO, .304 wOBA, and a 67 wRC+. He will be going up against Taijuan Walker who has the following numbers vs. left-handers: .324 wOBA, 1.04 HR/9, 22.2 K%, 11.1 BB%, 4.26 xFIP, and a 33.3 Hard%. Not terrible numbers but he doesn’t have great numbers either and has been hit hard this year which is bad news tonight at Coors. CarGo isn’t having the greatest season but he has a great matchup tonight and is super cheap considering the implied total and park factor tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
This is going to be an interesting slate where I think we are going to be loading up on the expensive bats tonight instead of paying up for pitching. A lot of games tonight but hopefully I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Twins third baseman Miguel Sano tonight! Good luck Army!
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