Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Jake Odorizzi who had 12.95 DKFP which was good enough for 1.8x value. For our infielder free square, we had Evan Longoria who did nothing at the plate for us. For our outfielder free square we had Brandon Belt who managed to get 3 DKFP. Not a great day by any means, but we move on the next slate and try to improve.
Tonight
After Monday’s slate, we have a monster 15 game ahead of us for Tuesday. On the pitching side of things, we have Chris Sale and two other pitchers who are priced over 10K. On the hitting side of things we have Coors Field on the slate and after that, the implied totals are pretty even across the board. Let’s not waste any time and dive into this huge slate:
Free Squares
- Brandon McCarthy SP LAD ($6,400)
- Brandon McCarthy and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the New York Mets tonight at Dodgers Stadium. The Dodgers are currently -205 favorites and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.51 runs. McCarthy had a really solid start to the season but his last couple starts have been a bit of a disappointment. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers to see how he has done this year: .259 wOBA given up to lefties, .267 wOBA given up to righties, 20.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 23.6 Hard%, 4.26 SIERA, and a 4.01 xFIP. He will be taking on the Mets tonight who have the following numbers against right-handers this season: 5th in BB%, 27th in K%, 7th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 8th in wOBA, and 8th in wRC+. The Mets are a pretty solid offense but I am going to default with Vegas on this one and think McCarthy can keep this team in check tonight. He has solid advanced numbers and I think he is very affordable as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Yasmani Grandal C LAD ($2,900)
- In this same game tonight we have the Dodgers and Grandal taking on Mets pitcher Robert Gsellman. The Dodgers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.99 runs. Grandal has been in a bit of a cold streak but he has a great matchup tonight against Gsellman. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 6.8 BB%, 27.8 K%, .772 OPS, .172 ISO, .329 wOBA, 105 wRC+. and a 35.7 Hard%. He gets a matchup against Robert Gsellman tonight who has the following numbers vs. lefties this season: .302 wOBA, 21.6 K%, 9.0 BB%, 4.04 xFIP, and a 32.2 Hard%. Even with his cold streak, I think Grandal always brings upside to the table. The Dodgers have a pretty big implied total tonight and I like the potential for Grandal tonight at an extremely low price.
- Jose Bautista OF TOR ($3,900)
- Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Nick Martinez tonight at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals of the night sitting at right around 5.76 runs. Bautista is having a pretty solid year so far this season. He has the following numbers against right-handed pitching this season: 13.1 BB%, 21.8 K%, .844 OPS, .223 ISO, 124 wRC+, and a 33.6 Hard%. He has been absolutely crushing righties this season. He will be taking on Nick Martinez who has struggled a bit this year. Here are his numbers vs. right-handed bats this season: .331 wOBA, 2.43 HR/9, 13.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 4.53 xFIP, and a 25.9 Hard%. I think the Blue Jays are going to be one of the highest owned stacks of the night and it will be for good reason. I know Joey Bats is a bit pricey for a value play but they way he has hit right-handed pitching this season plus the matchup makes him my favorites outfielder of the day.
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Free Square of the Night
We are going to try and get back on the winning side of things tonight. I love Tuesday states as they are perfect for GPP’s. A lot of games tonight but hopefully I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista tonight! Good luck Army!
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