Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had James Paxton who had an okay outing netting 15.40 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2x value. For our infielder free square, we had Miguel Sano who also had a phenomenal night by netting us 18 DKFP which was good enough for 4.6x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Carlos Gonzalez who had 5 DKFP.
Tonight
We have a really short slate ahead of us for Thursday night as there are only 6-games on the docket for tonight. On the pitching side of things we have Luis Severino as the high priced stud and after that, it is a pretty poor pitching slate. On the hitting side of things, we have a bunch of teams who are all around the same implied totals. Let’s dive into this tricky slate:
Free Squares
- Hyun-Jin Ryu SP LAD ($7,100)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the New York Mets at home in Dodgers Stadium. The Dodgers are currently -150 favorites and the Mets have an implied total sitting at right around 3.84 runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had a real up and down season as his game logs are all over the place. He has the following advanced numbers: .436 wOBA given up to lefties, 21.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, .316 BABIP, 34.4 Hard%, 4.13 SIERA, and a 4.08 xFIP. He will be going up against the Mets who have the following ranks vs. left-handed pitching: 22nd BB%, 10th in K%, 19th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. This is not a great slate for pitching and although I am not a huge fan of Hyun-Jin Ryu I think he has a solid matchup tonight and is the best SP2 option on the slate.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,400)
- Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Andrew Moore at Safeco Field tonight. The Tigers have an implied run total of 4.57 runs. Miguel hasn’t had quite the year we have come to expect from him, but he has been doing better as of late. He has the following numbers vs. right-handers this season: 11.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, .777 OPS, .188 ISO, .282 BABIP, .328 wOBA, 103 wRC+, and a 45.8. Despite the slower year, it’s still Miggy and he still has some really solid numbers. He will be taking on Andrew Moore who we don’t have much data on for this year. He is a pretty young pitcher and he had a 4.22 xFIP in AAA ball. Nevertheless, I love Miggy’s price tonight and I love him as a very affordable one off at first base tonight. I also do not mind a Tigers stack as well.
- Nick Markakis OF ATL ($3,500)
- Nick Markakis and the Atlanta Braves will be taking on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Matt Cain at AT&T Park. The Braves have an implied total of 4.90 runs. Markakis has been a bit of sneaky guy who I have liked playing that has gone a bit under the radar. He has the following numbers against right-handed pitchers so far this season: 10.4 BB%, 18.8 K%, .760 OPS, .091 ISO, 331 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 35.8 Hard%. He will be facing Matt Cain who has struggled in his last few starts. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters this season: .355 wOBA, 12.4 K%, 13.1 BB%, 5.59 xFIP, and a 31.0 Hard%. Those are some numbers we are looking to attack tonight. Markakis usually bats in the 3rd spot in the order and I think he will have plenty of fantasy production opportunities.
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Free Square of the Night
This is a rough slate tonight but hopefully, I narrowed down some guys we can target for the slate tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Braves outfielder Nick Markakis tonight! Good luck Army!
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