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The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Charlotte

Is there anything better than five hours of commercial-full racing on Memorial Day weekend? Answer – NO. It’s the biggest race weekend of the year with some of the biggest Draftkings contest of the year. This week we head Charlotte, where we expect to see a little bit of follow the leader. For more on that make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” and the podcast we dropped this morning – “Tacos Fast 40”. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kyle Larson – This is really a no brainer. Larson is not only one of the most impressive 1.5 milers so far in 2017, he starts 39th and has been one of the fastest cars in practice all weekend. The only knock on him is his poor pit stall, but that only serves to keep him from gaining spots on pit road. The top line with the TracBite and the overall speed of his car should be enough to see him blast into the top 10 with the swiftness. He will be VERY chalky this week, so keep that in mind, but he is as close to unfadeable as you can get this week.

Kevin Harvick – If this race is anything like the All-Star Race, it will be very hard to get around the leader on track. This sets up a Harvick dominated first segment, unless somehow someone can get around him off the jump – which is unlikely. I see Harvick leading until the first pit stop and probably even beyond that. The one concern I have is he certainly has not shown the dominant car so far this weekend, but to be fair – these are all daytime practices. I would hazard to guess that Childers has Harvs car setup to be fast under the lights.

Martin Truex Jr. – I think Truex Jr might be more polarizing than a lot of people expect this weekend. Here are his positives – he dominated this race last year in a magnificent way. He lead all but eight laps. He is starting 8th, which provides some safety if he doesn’t dominate in a big way. Most importantly – he has been THE GUY on 1.5 milers in 2017. Here are his negatives. He has looked underwhelming in practice (though again, daytime vs nighttime), and last time we were at this track in October, he laid an egg. Use that info as you will, but I still have a hard time going underweight on Truex this week.

Matt Kenseth – I’m not 100 percent convinced that Kenseth is truly a top play this week, but he is the most likely dominator outside of the $10000+ range. He has looked really quick in practice this week, and has a lights out track history at Charlotte. Of course we all know, he has been really poor in 2017 – but I am convinced that is not the norm, it is just a temporary thing. Look for Kenseth to hang around in the top 7 all night, and if the chips fall right, compete for a big chunk of laps led.

Fades

I honestly don’t have any obvious fades to put out this week since the field is so top heavy. I think we will have to play with just about everyone this week to make our line ups work.

Value Plays

Daniel Suarez – My favorite play of the week! Suarez has gone under the radar a little bit this year. But we can throw that out the window this week. Charlotte is a Car>Driver track and Suarez is going to have one of the best cars in the field. He is starting 19th which offers a great potential for place differential, and his $7400 price tag is absurd for an A+ level car. Play Suarez with confidence this week.

Ryan Newman – Newman is straight money at these 600 mile races. He has been fast in practice and coupled with his amazing track history – I’m fired up about Newman this week. Another guy you can play with confidence.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – I am real nervous about this call because Earnhardt has been atrocious this year. But he was given a huge discount this week, coming in at $7900 and starting 19th. He has looked strong in practice and he has expressed confidence in his race car. He also has been able to find fast laps despite his lackluster 2017 output. The one knock against Jr. is that a $7900 price tag still doesn’t give you much room to fit in those dynamite $10000+ cars. Regardless, I think Jr. has a pretty good opportunity to find his way into the optimal.

I think the most important thing to consider in terms of value plays this week, is to find guys that allow you to fit those top end drivers in. Guys like Regan Smith, Landon Cassill, Chris Buescher and (gulp) even Corey Lajoie all fit that bill. Now, I don’t think those guys are in for really stellar days – but I see them as kind of a necessary evil. So don’t be afraid to scrape the bottom of the barrel this week. Keep in mind though, 600 miles is a long way to go for less than stellar equipment.

So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.