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Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Last week’s picks
Jason Dufner – Cash – (MC / 23 DK points)
The most popular cash game player of the week came up flat with a disappointing missed cut. Dufner saw cash game ownership around 50% across major cash game tournaments and was the highest owned player in both the $25 giant double-up and then $5 giant double-up. Dufner made a late run on Thursday and looked like he would squeak into the weekend before a double bogey on the par four 17th, the fourth-easiest hole on the course. Everything lined up for Dufner to do well here; key stats, course history, and recent performance were on his side but Golf has lots of variance. Dufner is not a top five player in the world and anyone outside of the elite range should not come as a shock when they miss a cut, and even then it’s not that surprising. The only positive of playing Dufner in cash was that because of his high ownership his missed cut did not entirely destroy line-ups that included him.
Adam Hadwin – Cash (T53 /49.5 DK points)
Hadwin joins the list of chalky cash game players I employed that didn’t fare well this week. Hadwin saw ownership ranging from 35% in the $25 giant double-up to just over 25% in the $5 giant double-up. Much like Dufner the stats lined up but the performance was less than spectacular. At his $8400 price tag, you want more than a sub 50’s finish and that’s all that Hadwin was giving this week.
Marc Leishman – GPP (T34 /54.5 DK points)
Leishman received a salary bump this week and was priced at $9300. I thought this along with other players priced would create lower ownership on Leishman, which it did. Across major GPP’s Leishman saw anywhere between 9-13% ownership. Paying attention to Leishman you would notice a trend this year, tremendous tee-to-green game and horrible putting. This had resulted in a string of finished between 20-50th as well as a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitation when the putting showed up. That was the thought around playing Leishman this week in GPP formats. Unfortunately, the whole game did not show up and Leishman had another performance where he left us wanting more. With his price, you could still afford Spieth, Rahm or Kisner so it wasn’t entirely bad on the Leishman front.
The Memorial – Course Preview
The PGA Tour is leaving Texas and heading to Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. This tournament is memorable for being founded by Jack Nicklaus and played on the Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Nicklaus designed course. The course plays at 7,392 yards as a traditional par 72 (four par threes/fives). Over the years we have seen an all-around game needed to succeed here.
When analyzing any course for what is needed to succeed there is no better person to ask than the designer. Nicklaus was quoted last year stating, “Muirfield Village, basically, is the same course that opened in 1974, although overall it’s just a better design. It’s still a course where placing the ball in the proper areas is more important than power.” With lots of water, lots of sand and thick rough there is potential for trouble off the tee. Although accuracy is perhaps more important than distance off the tee the course still gives bombers who can stay accurate an advantage on many holes. Muirfield features slightly wider fairways than what the PGA pros are used to seeing which alleviates some of the pressure on guys that aren’t always down the middle. Overall I will be looking for players who can combine accuracy with power, instead of favouring one stat over the other.
Nicklaus (and many others) also believes this course is more of a “second shot course.” The greens are smaller than tour average and with lots of trouble around the greens, approach shots are very important this week. Although this may seem obvious approach shots become even more crucial with smaller greens. The more opportunities a player can give himself for birdie the better, especially in Draft Kings format, so I will be leaning heavily on shots gained: approach for this week.
The greens are not only small but also very fast. Muirfield Village Golf Club features greens measuring 13 on the stimpmeter – that’s very high. Week to week we see putting as a highly volatile statistic. With a higher stimpmeter we see putting become tougher, which often leads to weaker putters struggling while good putters adjust. With a higher stimpmeter I feel DFS players should factor in putting statistics more than they usually do. Strokes gained: tee to green is still more indicative of success but weighting putting more heavily than you usually do sounds like a good idea to me. Specifically, looking at putters who perform well on greens with a higher stimpmeter rating can lead us to players who will save strokes with the flat stick at Memorial.
Like last week at Dean & DeLuca, The Memorial Tournament is an invitational – meaning we see a smaller player field. With 120 players the field is even smaller than last week and with at least 70 players still making the cut, we will see 58% of the field at minimum making the cut. This can allow for a ‘stars and scrubs’ approach to be more successful in both cash and gpp formats than in a traditional 154 player field.
Memorial PICKS!
Justin Thomas – GPP – DraftKings
Thomas is $7600 on DraftKings, which is absolutely absurd. Not only has he shown he can win on tour he also can rack up fantasy points well doing it. This year JT has the highest birdie or better percentage and highest eagles per hole on tour. Thomas does not have great course history missing 2/3 cuts at this event but is a different player now in his career then over the last three seasons. According to our Domination Station projections Thomas has the 2nd highest fantasy pointer per dollar of players above $7000 and is only behind my next pick.
Kevin Kisner – Cash – DraftKings
Kisner has been red hot as of late. Aside from the Wells Fargo Championship Kisner has made every cut this year (10/11) with four top tens and one win. Kisner has also shown an all around game that is suited for this course. Kisner has gained strokes in all four metrics the PGA Tour uses and according to our DFS Army Field Adjusted Statistics that can be seen in our VIP Spreadsheet Kisner outperforms the field in all important statistics except driving distance. With a price of $7600, Kisner is 26th highest salary despite having the 10th best odds to win the tournament.
Byeong Hun-An –GPP/Cash – FanDuel/DraftKings
An has been consistent this year making all 12/12 cuts this season. Well that makes him a great cash game play I also think he is a great GPP play in both formats. On DraftKings An will surely see ownership because of his fantasy points and made cuts stand out for his price; but at $6900 he is surrounded by Leishman, Johnson, Haas and Schwartzel. Last year An placed T11 here showing he can play at this course. On FanDuel An’s salary is $7500; which I think is still good for the quality of player you’re playing. With FanDuel’s new system of all eight players scoring all four rounds you’ll need players to make the cut and An has been good for that all year long.
Matt Kuchar – GPP/Cash – FanDuel/DraftKings
4/26/15/1/2/8/5. Kuchar has been ridiculously good at this course over the years. Kuchar has also been great even since the Masters making six straight cuts and being within the top 40 five of six times. Our Domination Station projections have him as the highest value of any players over an $8000 DraftKings salary. With soft pricing on DraftKings this week it’s easier to roster two of the top studs, this could suppress Kuchar’s ownership despite the ridiculous record here.
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