Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in baseball; Golf however offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more PGA updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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AT&T Byron Nelson Pick Recap
Byeong Hun-An – DK: $8000 FD: $7500 – GPP/Cash – (T5, 90 Draft Kings Fantasy points)
An was my favourite play of the week in both Cash and GPP formats. I felt his mixture of recent play and how he lined up for the course made him a great value at his $8000 price tag. An’s 90 Draft Kings fantasy points were the fifth highest total of the week making him a successful play. His ownership was around 20% in both GPP’s and Cash on Draft Kings and although I thought that number would come in a little lower I was more than happy to be overweight as I watched An throughout the week.
Smylie Kaufman DK: $7100 FD: $6200 GPP Flyer (T35, 68 Draft Kings Fantasy points)
At the start of the week Smylie was my flier and as the week went on it became obvious others had the same thought as me. Smylie had come in with three consecutive made cuts and a few decent performances. When looking at initial pricing I felt Smylie would go under the radar, as obvious plays right above and below his salary were present. Well this was all true and the $7000-7200 Draft Kings range was under owned Smylie led the ownership for this group and averaged right around 10% ownership across major GPP’s. Smylie over performed his salary in relation to Draft Kings points as he came in tied for 47th in highest salary and finished tied for 32nd in Draft Kings points. Upon analyzing the final results this pick appears good but not great. Smylie made the cut and overall had an alright tournament; well he in no way was leading your team to the big GPP win he wasn’t hindering any line-ups from making money.
Brandt Snedeker – DK: $8400 FD: $9200 – DK Cash – (MC, 19.5 Draft Kings Fantasy points)
I have a rule that I have followed for some time and decided to break for this event. Well playing a player coming back from injury can suppress ownership and make them a good game theory GPP play the risk associated is often a bad idea for cash game line-ups. Snedeker had withdrawn the week prior with a wrist injury which I decided to ignore based on his price. I felt that because the injury only caused Snedeker to miss one week that he would be fine. I also thought that the course was a great fit for his game and still do think that. Snedeker however did not have his best outing and missed the cut. In hindsight I shouldn’t have taken the risk, as there were many other players in good spots for cash. DFS is all about learning in order to get better and this is definitely a moment I can learn from.
DFS Army Course Preview – Dean & Deluca Invitational
The PGA Tour heads from Irving Texas to Fort Worth for the Dean & Deluca Invitational (formerly known as the Crowne Plaza Invitational). Despite the sponsor change the Colonial Golf and Country Club has remained the host course over the years so any and all course history will be relevant. When looking at past winners of the 7,209 yard par 70 there appears to be a specific skill set that succeeds at Colonial. Over the last ten years winners include; Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson (twice), Chris Kirk, Boo Weekley and Steve Stricker while runner ups include; Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar and Jim Furyk. What I am trying to get at here is for the most part players that are bald and/or balding seem to do really well here. In all seriousness this list includes course managers; guys that place the ball and chose when are where to go for birdies. Bombers haven’t fared well and after further analysis it becomes apparent why.
As mentioned earlier this course is a Par 70 with only two par fives. The two par fives are 565 and 635 yards; not exactly distances bombers can routinely take advantage of. Well the 565 yard par five yielded only eight eagles in 2016 the 635 yard par five saw zero. Well this mitigates a bombers advantage to score on par fives the overall course setup further hinders bombers and inaccuracy of the tee is punished throughout. Colonial Golf and Country Club has smaller then average fairways, which will put drivers back in the bag. When players do choose to use the driver accuracy becomes important due to the small fairways; something a traditional bomber isn’t always the greatest at.
To go along with smaller than average fairways Colonial also sees some of the smaller greens we see on tour. Players will have to be accurate on approach shots in order to create birdie opportunities. With smaller greens misses will also happen and players will need to scramble and save par in order to stay in contention throughout the week.
With all of that being said strokes gained tee to green will be my highest weighted stat of the week as it is the greatest indicator of future success. I will also be looking for players that hit greens in regulation, par four scoring, driving accuracy and scrambling as measures that are needed to succeed here
Finally, the Invitational sees a field of around 125 players instead of the traditional 144. Theoretically this should mean that we will see more 6/6 line-ups due to a higher percentage of players making the cut. With a higher number percentage of players making the cut you can generally take more risks when constructing line-ups.
PICKS!!!!
Jason Dufner – Cash – DK: $9000
There are many reasons to like Dufner in cash games this week. Dufner has made nine straight cuts dating back to January 19th and has placed in the top 25 of the field seven times in this stretch. Dufner is also a horse for the course and has made five straight cuts here with two runner up finishes and a sixth within this time frame. Dufner is also simply underpriced, he is the 11th highest salary of the week despite being tied for 5th in odds to win (26 to 1). Our Domination Station projections agree as Dufner is projected to have the highest fantasy points total per dollar of salary of any player above a $8000 salary. Don’t overthink it in cash and lock in the obvious play of Dufner.
Adam Hadwin – Cash – DK: $8400
Adam Hadwin has become a virtual lock for many over the past few months in cash game formats and for good reason. Hadwin has made 11/11 cuts this season and with a win has shown he has the upside to compete in any tournament. What makes Hadwin even more intriguing this week is he sets up so well for the course. Hadwin fits the mould of former winners and has found success in both his starts here; placing T22 here last year and T5 two years ago. Much like Byeong Hun-An last week Hadwin is a better par three/four player than par fives and with a par 70 course the weakest part of his game is minimized.
Marc Leishman – GPP – DK: $9300
As players are talked up (or down) throughout the week expected ownership changes but it appears to me that Leishman may fall into a dead zone below top guys and above Dufner/Mickelson. We are certainly not used to seeing Leishman’s salary this high and this could further supress his ownership. Leishman also sets up well for this course; as evident from his six straight made cuts in six years here at Colonial. According to our DFS Army field adjusted statistics that can be found on the VIP PGA Spreadsheet Leishman is first in both Greens in regulation and SG: Tee to Green. Leishman is another player who performs better on par fours (21st in scoring average this season) than par fives (45th). Overall Leishman could see low ownership based on price but has the game to win here.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
Schnarr’s Super Picks PGA DFS Preview – Dean & DeLuca Invitational 2017
Taco Tuesday DFS PGA Podcast – Dean & DeLuca Invitational 2017
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