When it comes to MLB DFS, there is no shortage of content at dfsarmy.com. In fact, there might be so much it’s a bit overwhelming for the newer player. Well, grab my coat tails because we are going to start fixing that today! Chin Music will be short and sweet. If you want more detailed content, you will just have to become a VIP and come to my new article (Chop’s 5 Keys for VIPs). It’s purpose is breaking down the players I mentioned below in more depth.
First and foremost, today and this whole weekend really is only possible because of so many that served our country to preserve our freedom. In this shitty political era where the left and right sit and bash each other for personal gain, it’s hard to remember a time where people actually gave of self over agenda. I can only hope someday we get back to those values. Either way, this isn’t a political space. It’s a space to jabber on about DFS and baseball….
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Quick Glance
Quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups
The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside. I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction. I tie-break with price. If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one. The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win. Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – The lead dog on the slate, and although I’m trying to find ways off him, I might be stuck. Each slate is it’s own animal and we don’t want to get too cute with pitching. -240 coming out of Vegas means he has the best shot at the win, and the KScore of 483 is the best of the pricey, solid pitchers. I just want to see more K upside when paying $10300 for a pitcher.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – Another I’d like to see more from….like a team that could hit anything right now. These bats are loaded and they just aren’t doing much. I worry about run support here more than anything. The -180 from Vegas is nice, but if the Cubs can’t score on their own, that lead is vulnerable in the late innings. The 467 KScore isn’t all that exciting either. But, it’s a price drop off Carrasco.
Brad Peacock (HOU) – Yes, I’m aware of how weird and risky this is. But, at $5700, I’m taking a look. Not because I want Coors Field exposure (I honestly don’t think it’s that big a deal anymore when all the other games on the slate are carrying totals of 8.5 and 9), but because I don’t mind loading on studs when I get a price on a pitcher I almost can’t refuse. This is like the min-priced quarterback in NFL…or the running back getting lead back carries. Peacock got the spot start and did well enough to supplant Fiers from the rotation. Granted, he only went 4.1 innings. But, he struck out 8 and earned 37 Fanduel points. For under 6k, you could do a lot worse. I might take a couple shots at him in hopes they stretch him out and he can get me 6 innings, 10 Ks, and the quality start. That KScore of 492 is second only to Rich Hill today.
Speaking of Rich Hill (LAD) – How many of you are going back to the well? He walked a career high last time out and didn’t last very long in what looked like a solid spot for the price. I won’t mind jumping back on the train until it bucks me again. His KScore of 510 is the only one over 500 on the slate today. While that isn’t an indicator to be used on it’s own, KScore doesn’t usually fluctuate a lot from start to start. If a pitcher strikes batters out, he strikes them out.
Honorable Mentions: Gsellmann (NYM), Bundy (BAL), Montgomery (NYY)
Soft Pitching to Pick On
Next, we start looking to bats. We start the process by finding the softer pitching. Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers. If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms. Someone will answer it quickly for you. I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50. I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.
Over 5.00 SIERA – Cosart (SDP
Over 4.50 SIERA – Gavaglio (SEA), Chatwood (COL), Williams (PIT), Mengen (OAK)
Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats
Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats. Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score. They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters. I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase). If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.
COL righties – BLACKMON, PARRA, STORY, cargo, reynolds, wolters
CLE both – ZIMMER, SANTANA, lindor, kipnis
SEA lefties – RUIZ, HEREDIA, seager, cruz, cano, segura
NYM – DUDA, BRUCE, CONFORTO, D’ARNAUD, WALKER, GRANDERSON
ARI – IANNETTA, DESCALSO, BLANCO, OWINGS, goldy, lamb, drury
Honorable Mentions: BOS neither, HOU neither, BAL, PIT lefites, CHC
For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP. Yes, membership has it’s privileges. Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!
#DongCall!!
We played a fun little game last year where I posted a picture of my DFS MLB “Dong Call” of the day. I tried to make the picture obscure enough it wasn’t just giving you the player’s name. My #DongCall is pictured below. Who is it? Give me a follow and tweet me @ChoppoDong if you know, and tweet me yours, too!
Yesterday’s #DongCall was Jedd Gyorko (STL)…
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Don’t forget to use the coupon code WIN to unlock your free 7-day all access pass. See you inside!