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Kickin it on the Pitch w/ TreyJ – EPL DFS – 5/12/17

2 games here.  4 games there.  The schedule is getting real funky trying to catch up for all the postponements from earlier in the year due to other competitions.  It does give us a few more chances to get that money.  As usual this article will concentrate on the main on saturday.  Without further ado…

Bournemouth v Burnley

Pretty much loving Bournemouth here.  Burnley continues to yield many shots on the road. Bournemouth has created 7 big chances in their last 3 games and 35 key pases.  Basically, they have been a terror for opposing keepers when they come into Bournemouth’s home turf.  While Burnley has given up a ton of shots on the road (19.33 average over their last 3 road tilts), they have only given up 1 big chance in that same span.  A big chance just means a chance created that a player is reasonably expected to score, like a one-on-one situation or from very close range.  

 

On the flip side, Bournemouth has given up the second most goals per game on the slate.  So what do we do with this?  We light this game up like the fourth of july.  I want both sides of this one.  I think Bournemouth gets the victory but there should be action on both sides of this.  Burnley doesn’t go down without a fight.

 

Josh King will be popular.  I will likely have my share of him, but Burnley has seen goals from all levels of the attack.  Maybe someone like Charlie Daniels catches your eye.  He crosses and shoots.  Sounds like a solid GPP play on the back line to me.  For Burnley, I am on the strikers.  They have been doing the damage, as of late and Bournemouth has been susceptible to attacks up front.  Sam Vokes has had 8 shots and 5 on target in their last 3 matches.  Nobody else has 5 shots total.  I am not going to count out Ashley Barnes, though.  He has been starting, up top, on the left side, in their typical 4-4-2 formation.  Against Bournemouth, teams have been passing the ball (and the dutchie) to the left hand side.

Stoke City v Arsenal

If you saw the #soccer-talk slack channel on wednesday, you may have noticed my little piece about Arsenal and their pseudo-experiment with the 3-4-2-1 formation.  I say pseudo because they really should adopt it fully, but after a couple wins against Boro and Man City, they reverted right back to their normal 4-2-3-1 and lost.  They went back to it against southampton and played beautifully.  I expect we see it again but who knows.  The wonderful thing about the play in this formation is that they can let up shots.  Despite the high number of attempts, the back line has enough committed defensively, that they are able to handle the pressure.

 

Stoke has been really active offensively.  On a per game basis, they have the second most shots on the slate and the most shots inside the box, in recent weeks.  If you are a DFS Army subscriber (and you really should be at this point) and peruse my team sheets, you may be wondering why I am even talking about this game.  Look for the shift later on because I do think  Stoke scores this week.  I just think Arsenal scores more.  

 

For Stoke, I am looking at Xherdan Shaqiri and Marko Arnautovic. Shaqiri makes a solid DK play with his crossing ability and Marko’s game translates more to FD scoring.  I expect that Shaqiri will be the higher owned player of the two on both sites.  Both players have been involved in the same number of goal attempts (17) in their last 3 home matches.  The next closest is 7.  On the Arsenal side of the ball, Alexis Sanchez is looking in good form with the 3-4-2-1.  As a fan, I really hope they stick with that.  The team looks energized again.  That formation gives value to Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain, especially in DK formats.

Between the Sticks

  1. Petr Cech- Arsenal is giving up the 3rd most shots per game on the slate but their defense has been fairly staunch in their new formation.

 

  1. Lukasz Fabianski – Sunderland have the 4th highest rate of shots on target, of these 8 teams, and the second lowest goal conversion rate.  Swansea also ties for the lowest number of goal attempts inside the box.

 

  1. Jordan Pickford – He is seeing the ball well, as demonstrated by that 5 save clean sheet last week.  If you didn’t see the game you wouldn’t know just how well he really played.  The pricing reflects his form.  Swansea also have the lowest goal conversion in recent weeks, on the slate.

 

For the rest of my picks, come join me in the #soccer-talk slack channel.  There you can find my team sheets loaded with key stats and info.  
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