The All-Star Race is in the books and it’s time to turn 400 fast ones around Charlotte Motor Speedway. The longest race of the year provides it’s own unique set of challanges from a DFS standpoint, but luckily we are ready to attack. Make sure you check back this evening for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Charlotte Motor Speedway.
400 laps, 600 miles
Stages: 100 / 200/ 300/400 laps
Superspeedway: 1.5-mile quad oval
Banking: turns: 24 degrees; straights: 5 degrees
Straights: Frontstretch – 1952.8 feet; Backstretch – 1360 feet
The first thing that should jump out at you is those 400 laps. WHEW. For those of you who may not be fully invested into the sport yet (it’s only a matter of time!) – you are in for a LONG night. The race will kick off in the late afternoon, and finish is the dead of night – which usually means we are going to have a few comers and goers i.e. good day time cars, and good night time cars. Another thing to note is that the trackbite that was used at Bristol will again be used this weekend. It will be slathered on the top line of the speedway – but I don’t anticipate it having much effect, outside of giving Kyle Larson a free line to the front after his poor 39th starting spot.
Now let’s address the elephant in the room – Martin Truex Jr. He dominated this race last leading 392 of 400 laps. That’s insane, and an outlier. That is not to say Martin Truex Jr is a bad play this weekend – he is one of the best – but I wouldn’t go into this race assuming he will be able to pull that off again. In fact, in the October Charlotte race that happened after Truex Jrs beating, he was a ghost. He didn’t lead single lap. Moral of the story is don’t base your strategy this week on outliers. Stick to your normal strategy and don’t change your research methods.
So with all that in mind, what CAN we expect to see this weekend? My best guess would be a few 20+ laps led drivers and a couple 120+ laps led drivers. We will also have some really solid place differential guys, and one dynamite value play. This all adds up 2-3 dominators, 2-3 mini doms/place differential guys, 1-2 value studs. To start identifying those canidates, lets first look at qualifying results:
So that just about takes car of our place differential guys, right? Without even digging into stats – it’s not hard to tell who the highest owned driver will be this week. Larson is starting 39th, he looked very strong during the All-Star race on this track, and he has been an assassin no matter what track we go to in 2017. This is probably the most obvious play of the year, even moreso considering the TracBite in the high racing groove will be like a personal red carpet for him. The only concern is he will have a really poor pit stall, and will struggle to gain any positions on pit road. Regardless, this is a very low risk play with huge upside.
Well Larson serves as a bright beckon of hope at the bottom of the starting order, don’t let that blind you from the face that there is some other really great place differential plays in Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne and even Chris Buescher. While none of those guys looked particularly strong during the time we have spent at Charlotte so far, the Coke 600 is often a war of attrition- and those guys are all survivors. We will dig into those folks a little more tomorrow, but right now I want to look at who the dominator candidates are this week.
So as we talked about, Martin Truex Jr. is kind of an outlier here thanks to his overwhelming performance in spring of 2016. But with that in mind, he is still one of the top plays this week. He has been the best car on mile and a halfs this year, he has looked quick in practice so far, and he starts eighth – which helps mitigate some of the risk. Certainly keep and eye on him as the weekend progresses.
I also want to keep an eye on old Jimmie J too. There was a time that Charlotte Motor Speedway was pretty much owned by Jimmie Johnson, and we honestly are only a few races removed from that. Jimmie has shown some prowess on mile and halfs this year, and we know that Chad Knaus and Co. figured some stuff out during the All-Star Race. He is starting back in 14th, so his domination probably won’t be immediate, but I do think its eventual.
Now as dominate as Kevin Harvick has been over the last three years, it hasn’t really shown at Charlotte. He has only led 2.6% of laps here, but always seems to finish quite well. However, we saw just how important clean air was during the All-Star race. It won’t be any different this week. Harvick should lead this race until atleast the first pit stop, his potential lies in what happens after that. If he has a good car, this could easily be a big night for Harv.
Lastly, let’s take a quick glance at driver rating to see what sticks out.
So the first thing that sticks out here is Kurt Busch. Kurt has a real nose for performance at Charlotte, and though he has been just atrocious so far this year – he looked solid during the All-Star Race. He is starting 12th at just $8,200, so the potential is all there. Look for Kurt to be a sneaky play this weekend.
Its now time for my weekly Ryan Newman endorsement. Newman just has a way of ending up in the top ten of the Coke 600. It doesn’t make any sense, but it just seems to be the way things work. What’s even more promising – he is priced at $7,300!! Starting 17th!!! Newman is looking like a great value play this week.
Lastly, keep an eye on the drivers who DONT show up on that chart – Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, and Ty Dillion. Charlotte is very much a car over driver racetrack. A decent driver in a great car is a top ten everytime in the Coke 600 – and those three all have potential to have a great car, and thus a great finish. Keep an eye on them in practice, and don’t let their rookie prowess scare you off.
SO. In summary – Truex, Johnson and Harvick are your prime dominator candidates so far. Larson, Logano, Kahne and Chris Buescher all have great place differential potential. Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman are a couple of sneaky snakes who could be big time this weekend, and dont be scared of the rookies. I will have so much more to add to this after practice and the xFinity race, so make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back tonight for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.
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