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Later on today, I will post the breakdowns from the four series that start tomorrow.
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Indiana Pacers
Cavs won season series: 3-1
Prediction: Cavs in five
All eyes will be on the Cavs, and you can’t help but feel like they had all of this drama coming their way. From all the healthy scratches to controversial comments to the fact that LeBron wasn’t satisfied with the team’s roster, thus making them go out and get former stars and turning them into minimal role players. Make no mistake about it, if the Cavs falter there will be no shortage of tears.
With all that being said, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Cavs don’t win this series in four or five games. The Pacers made some great offseason moves but could never put together that dominant run that led them to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. You can attribute that to a new group of players coming together for the first time, but the fact of the matter is they underachieved.
Cavs impact players:
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, JR Smith, Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson –
I really don’t like using anyone other than the Cavs Big3 when they’re all healthy, so play all of them with confidence each time they take the court. LeBron, Kyrie and Love have eight of the 10 highest FDP totals against the Pacers this season. Since they’re all banged up with some sort of ailment or fatigue, it’ll be interesting to see if they’ll get some extra rest or even sat down if the Cavs have a 3-0 lead.
While I do love the Big3, the Cavs really killed the Pacers from behind the arc in the regular season and that does give me some interest in JR Smith. While I mentioned that the Big3 had eight of the 10 highest FDP totals vs the Pacers, Kyle Korver managed to squeeze himself in there with games of 34 and 36. These two guys will likely eat into each other’s production, but it is something to monitor.
I’m not completely sold on this one, but it could be an interesting play to use a few times during the series. We have been able to pick on the Pacers down low and Tristan Thompson is never really that expensive. For whatever reason, he’s shown up more so in the playoffs…guess what time it is?
Pacers impact players:
Paul George, Jeff Teague, Myles Turner, Thad Young, Lance Stephenson, Monta Ellis –
The Cavs were absolutely terrible on defense this season, but I fully expect them to turn it up big time for the playoffs. In the first two games, I can see the Pacers getting thumped, but when the series shifts to Indiana I might come back around with my faith.
Paul George (Playoff Paul) has earned quite the reputation in his last few playoff stints and he was even better coming down the stretch of this season. What I’m about to say is kinda crazy, but I think he could be worth a fade in these first two games- I only say this because I think the Cavs come out with laser-like precision and crush the Pacers into submission early in this series. When everyone is feeling a bit down on PG13, that could be the spot to climb back in. He is certainly capable of winning a game in this series all by himself, but the Cavs just have way too much firepower for him to win four…..or two or three.
Jeff Teague will be a hot commodity in this series, and for good reason. I do wonder if the Cavs will leave Kyrie up against him in crunch time, but if this series goes the way I think it will…there shouldn’t be much crunch time. If the Pacers are behind a lot, Teague will have to push the tempo a little more and I can certainly get down with that.
Looking at the game theory aspect of things once again, I don’t think this all shapes up well for Myles Turner but I do like Thad Young. Ever since Al Jefferson has missed significant time, Young has stepped up and really made the most of the additional minutes.
Lance Stevenson isn’t someone that should excite you, but he’ll definitely spend more time on the court defending LeBron. He’s probably a better option later on in this series so keep that in mind.
Monta Ellis and CJ Miles will be fantastic salary-savers, just as they have been the entire second half of the season.
(3) Toronto Raptors vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Raptors won season series: 3-1
Prediction: Bucks in six
The Raptors have struggled to win Game 1s at home in the past, so I think this Bucks team will be able to take advantage of that…and I’m calling the upset! I’ve never really thought much of this Raptors team, and now they have a couple new pieces that they’ll head into this year’s playoff run with, it could be somewhat of a learning curve in these tense moments. Kyle Lowry missed a lot of time but came back with four games left in the regular season, and this is a very underrated narrative that people will overlook. Sure, he got a few games of work in but this matchup against the Bucks is one that is terrible for opposing point guards. That coupled with the fact he’s only had limited work with guys like Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker is certainly something to monitor going forward.
The Bucks aren’t without some form of baggage themselves, as they lost Jabari Parker a while back. He was a major part of their early success and created open space for Giannis Antetokounmpo; when Parker went down, you saw The Greek struggle for a while too. Teams could hone in more on him, but the return of Khris Middleton allowed The Greek to get back in a groove.
Interestingly enough, the Raptors have won 14 of their last 18 games against the Bucks. I’m well aware of this, but I’m sticking with my Bucks pick.
Raptors impact players:
DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas –
With exception to the superstar on the opposing team, there’s not much really going on with shooting guards on FanDuel. DeMar DeRozan’s price has fallen off a cliff over there and he will probably be one of the highest owned players on this slate. This isn’t the great matchup of the first round for shooting guards, but the price and opportunity should more than make up for it.
I talked about Kyle Lowry coming back to the Raptors in the open, and I do think it’ll be an issue at times. Overall, the matchup isn’t a great one as the Bucks were above average against opposing point guards, but Lowry put up his fair share of fantasy points against them this season. At his current price on both sites, he’s only exceeded salary-based expectations once in three games, but not far off in the other two.
Jonas Valanciunas had some great performances down the stretch, and I’ll certainly be calling his numbers a couple times in this series- why wouldn’t I? The Bucks are terrible at rebounding and JoVal will be matched up against rookie Thon Maker who could be a bit overwhelmed by his first playoff experience.
Bucks impact players:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, Malcolm Brogdon –
Just like their counterparts, there aren’t a whole lot of matchups that I’m interested in attacking here. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the best players in the NBA and he’s capable of taking down some GPPs all by himself here in the first round. The Raptors coaching staff (and our basic intuition) has already come out and said that DeMarre Carroll and PJ Tucker will be tasked with defending The Greek- that’s OK, it doesn’t really make me incredibly nervous. After all, he has posted the four highest fantasy point totals of any Bucks player against the Raptors this season, ranging from 42.5-54.8 DKP and 40-54.3 FDP.
Khris Middleton is playing about 35 minutes per game and he’s locked in as The Greek’s sidekick. Middleton is quite affordable and if the Bucks are going to pull off this upset, he’ll have to be involved a great deal. Middleton only faced the Raptors once this season but he posted 29.2 DKP/27.6 FDP.
On the surface, Malcolm Brogdon seems to have a bad matchup against Kyle Lowry but point guards have done well against the Raptors at times this season…and that’s even before Corey Joseph took over the starting role for a while. I am nervous as to how Brogdon will perform in his first NBA playoff game, so give him a few rotations to get used to it.
The last Bucks player I wanna talk about is Greg Monroe. He’s a lot cheaper right now on DraftKings, but I know I’ll have the urge to play him at times on FanDuel. You would think Bucks head coach Jason Kidd wants to get Monroe more minutes, but trying to understand what he’ll do is something I gave up on a long time ago. Look out for how his minutes are coming along as the series goes on.
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Memphis Grizzlies
Season series tied: 2-2
Prediction: Spurs in six
Both teams are mirror images of one another, playing defense to the high heavens and running at a snail’s pace, so there’s no reason to get overjoyed about them. I made a lot of money fading this series during last season’s playoffs, and I want to have a similar outlook to it this time again, but these slates aren’t anywhere near appealing this time around.
The Grizzlies actually won the first two meetings against the Spurs, so I do think there is something to be said for the outlook of this series. Overall, I feel like the Spurs will outclass them when all is said and done. But it won’t be easy.
Spurs impact players:
Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol –
Kawhi and LMA posted seven of the eight highest fantasy point totals against the Grizzlies this season and that likely won’t change in this series. With Tony Allen out for the Grizzlies, Kawhi’s outlook got a whole lot better, especially since he comes at a little more of a discount than usual.
Pau Gasol had some decent performances down the stretch, and we could use him in a salary-saving role. It’s not a matchup that I’ll sign off on right away, but let’s wait and see how he performs in the first couple of games. I have a feeling that Popovich will use him more now that they’re in the playoffs, and he was playing very well down the stretch, even in limited minutes.
There could be some slates later on in this series where you have limited options. Danny Green and Patty Mills have turned in big playoff performances before and they are certainly capable of some more.
Grizzlies impact players:
Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, James Ennis –
Conley was on an incredible streak to end the season and he’ll likely keep that going. Of course, this matchup is undesirable on so many levels, but you must carefully pick and choose your spots on this first day of playoff action with bad scenarios all over the joint. If you are going to attack the Spurs, point guard might be the best place to do so.
Marc Gasol really struggled against the Spurs this season, so I’ll take the wait-and-see approach on him. His price tag of $7K on both sites certainly makes him worth a look but it’s certainly not my favorite area to target just yet. I do think the Grizzlies will be a lot more competitive in this series than most people think, and if that’s the case Gasol will likely have a hand in it.
Zach Randolph had the highest fantasy point total (46.5 DKP/44.2 FDP) of any Grizzlies player against the Spurs during the regular season. He didn’t play much at all in the last three games (not at all in one of them) so that’s why his game logs may look rusty down the stretch. But make no mistake about it, Z-Bo had a rejuvenation of sorts this season and most people might overlook him with Gasol back in his usual role. This may be a guy to look at sooner than later.
I’m not crazy about Vince Carter and James Ennis III, but they will be playing a ton of minutes while Tony Allen is out.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Utah Jazz
Clippers won season series: 3-1
Prediction: Clippers in seven
This is likely the last run at a title for this core group of Clippers players. The Western Conference has not been the easiest terrain over the last few seasons but they have just simply not lived up to their expectations and changes are likely in order if they can’t get it done for the umpteenth time.
Utah is a very tough place to play, so that’s why I think this series goes the distance. The Jazz have a couple key players that are banged up right now, and that could be their Achilles heel in the end.
Clippers impact players:
Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford –
There’s not a whole lot to like when you’re going up against the Jazz, but I’ll tow the motto of the day once again- we really don’t have much of a choice, do we? At least this time we have it narrowed down to three players. Hint: they are bolded above.
Chris Paul is my favorite of the bunch, mainly because we have seen him do well in this matchup before. He posted a team-high 55 DKP/51.7 FDP against the Jazz this season and we’ll likely see him try to carry the load for this Clippers team. CP3 was consistently meeting salary-based expectations down the stretch of the regular season, and I like the fact that we know he’s in top form with a lot of motivation in his mind as well.
Blake Griffin had one big performance of 53.5 DKP/51 FDP against the Jazz this season. He also had some great numbers coming down the stretch of the regular season, and I do like his matchup a little more than the statistics will lead on.
On the other hand, DeAndre Jordan will have to deal with that beast of a human being for multiple games…good luck. Gobert was statistically the best defender in the NBA this season (that in itself is about as unappealing as it gets) but you also have to worry about DJ getting in foul trouble.
With Austin Rivers out of the lineup, JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford are both solid options to save you some salary at the shooting guard position.
Jazz impact players:
Rudy Gobert, Gordon Hayward –
Gobert is the one Jazz player above all that I’ll be interested in rostering this series. Let’s talk about The Stifle Tower in the individual sense first- DeAndre Jordan gets a better reputation as a defender than he actually is, and Gobert is capable of hanging big numbers on anyone. He did post a team-high 48.5 DKP/44.3 FDP against the Clippers this season and has been reaching salary-based expectations on a consistent basis. The other aspect of why I like Gobert so much is because the Jazz are back at full strength, from a roster standpoint. Yes, guys like George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors are banged up, but they still take away a lot of fantasy points from one another.
Hayward is a guy that I’ve always liked, but his matchup against Luc Mbah a Moute is not one that I’m particularly interested in. He is also someone that is affected by the Jazz being at full strength, so it might be best to take the wait-and-see approach with him and see how the team’s health holds up over the course of the series.
Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks
Wizards won season series: 3-1
Prediction: Wizards in seven
Surprisingly, the Wizards have the fewest playoff minutes of any roster in this year’s playoffs. I couldn’t believe that stat when I saw it, but I read it on the internet…so it must be true. The one thing I like about the Wizards is their home court advantage; from a point-differential aspect, they weren’t that great, but throughout the course of the season it was in DC that they played their best ball.
The Hawks will have a massive size/toughness advantage down low so they’ll have to use that to their advantage as much as possible. I feel like homecourt is going to be the overbearing factor in this series and that’ll win in the end. They certainly won’t make it easy on the Wizards, though.
Wizards impact players:
John Wall, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, Bradley Beal –
Point guards against the Hawks were a great investment this season, but they have managed to keep Wall just under salary expectations at his current $9700 DK/$10,100 FD price tag. Just as it was during the regular season, he is a better option on DK where he’s slightly cheaper and you can get the double-double and 3PT bonus numbers. For all of the shit we give Wall about not reaching expectations, he has posted four of the seven highest fantasy point totals for any Wizards player against the Hawks this season.
Markieff Morris will make an interesting case study in basketball history one day, but for now, I’ll keep it somewhat simple. He had two solid games (38.2, 37 DKP – 36.3, 35.8 FDP) against the Hawks in the first week of the season, but he disappeared for long periods of time after the All-Star break. However, Markieff reemerged for two exceptional games in his last two appearances before the playoffs. If you were a regular listener of the NBA Daily Dispatch this season, you’ll know that I love stretch fours against the Hawks- Millsap is just simply not as mobile as he used to be. With Ian Mahinmi out for at least a week, look for Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre Jr and Jason Smith to see a couple more minutes than usual.
I’m not in love with the matchup for Marcin Gortat up against Howard, but he will be forced to play a lot more minutes as well with Mahinmi out.
Bradley Beal hasn’t flourished much in this matchup against the Hawks…while John Wall has been in the lineup. If you remember a few years back, Beal was en fuego in that playoff matchup while Wall was injured. Beal did post a massive 52.8 DKP/48.8 FDP total against the Hawks in their last regular season meeting, but it’s not something I would expect to see on a regular basis.
Last, but not least, I can’t forget about my Bojan Bogdanovic- former Nets great. The production hasn’t been there for him down the stretch of the regular season but he could definitely be a nice add-in on DraftKings for big GPPs. When he’s on…he on.
Hawks impact players:
Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway Jr –
For the Hawks, it’s all about their star players down low. Simply put, the Wizards don’t have the manpower to deal with either one of them. As you can see, it’s been a highly profitable endeavor for them during the regular season. Note: the one misnomer you see from Millsap came in limited minutes.
Tim Hardaway Jr is probably the only other Hawks player that I’ll have constant exposure to over the course of this series. THJ had his best game of the season (43.5 DKP/41.9 FDP) last time he played the Wizards and also notched 30+ fantasy points in four of his last six regular season games.
Point guards against the Wizards weren’t the greatest matchup during the regular season and Dennis Schroder consistently missed value against them. I’m sure Schroder can pop off with at least one or two dazzling performances in this series, but your guess of when it happens is as good as mine.
Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers
Warriors won season series: 4-0
Prediction: Warriors in four
This will be an incredibly difficult matchup for the Blazers in this series, as evidenced by the four losses (first two were by a combined 68 points, the second two by a combined 10) during the regular season. It’s going to be a lot more difficult if Jusuf Nurkic were to miss multiple games because of that lower leg injury.
Regardless of his availability, the Warriors are pretty damn lethal with their quartet of studly individuals. I don’t see this series lasting too long.
Warriors impact players:
Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala –
There’s not much to say that hasn’t been said already about this Warriors team. The matchups aren’t worthy of grinding down to a fine powder; it’s pretty simple- the Warriors have put on one of the most amazing offensive shows in NBA history and the Blazers suck on defense. The Blazers’ defensive numbers improved drastically with the acquisition of Nurkic, but him not being at 100% (or even on the court) will present a number of problems. It is worth noting that Kevin Durant had three of the four highest fantasy point totals against the Blazers during the regular season. Also, the Blazers backcourt duo is among some of the worst statistical defenders in the NBA so look for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to go nuts a couple times in this series.
It’s going to be tough to fit most of these guys in the same lineup as Westbrook on the opening slate, but it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to make multiple lineups in that scenario. You can also use Andre Iguodala for savings and to get extra exposure to the Warriors, especially while Matt Barnes is out of the lineup.
Blazers impact players:
Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Allen Crabbe –
The good thing about the Blazers getting their asses kicked is that they’ll be in up-tempo mode for the entire series. This is where the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum will excel big time- McCollum actually has the two highest fantasy point totals of active Blazers players (Mason Plumlee had the second-highest output).
Assuming that Jusuf Nurkic can get back to 100% health, he should be able to feast against an undersized Warriors frontline. There have been plenty of centers to post big numbers against them this season, but it’s really just a matter of whether he’ll be his usual self. Keep an eye out for that throughout the series.
I don’t mind Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe or Maurice Harkless at times during this series. With all the firepower on the same nights that their first games are scheduled on, you’ll need some extreme value in awkward places.
Boston Celtics vs Chicago Bulls
Season series: Tied 2-2
Prediction: Celtics in seven
These two teams usually play each other close and I expect nothing other than that this time around. Sure, the Celtics overachieved this season and the Bulls underachieved, but there are plenty of matchups for the underdogs to take advantage of. Rebounding and being physical down low are two very weak links for the Celtics, something the Bulls can certainly exploit.
The current Celtics on this roster don’t have much playoff experience and haven’t even won a road playoff game over the last two seasons. The Bulls have some experience from a couple of their players but are a very inconsistent team, and we’re not sure which one we’re getting each night. When they are on their game, though, it could make things very difficult for the opposition. Overall, the Celtics have just a little more talent on their roster but I believe the Bulls will take them to the wire.
Celtics impact players:
Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Al Horford, Jae Crowder –
It’ll be interesting to see whether the Bulls put Butler on IT2 down the stretch of close games. If I were Fred Hoiberg, I would, and we’ll probably see that more than we think. If that happens it could create plenty of opportunities for Bradley, Crowder and Horford. Overall, I’m not impressed with the Celtics supporting cast as fantasy options, but Horford is the one exception; he will draw Mirotic and Portis most of this series, which was one of the more profitable endeavors for power forwards down the stretch.
UPDATE: With the news of Isaiah Thomas’s sister passing away, it puts a major wrinkle into how the Celtics will go forward. As tough as it will be, he could play in tomorrow’s game but maybe miss Game 2 or 3. I have NO IDEA how this will all play itself out, but if he does miss time it’ll be Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier getting his minutes. Avery Bradley would get most of the production.
Bulls impact players:
Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo, Dwayne Wade, Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis –
Butler has been a savage this season but the Celtics do have a trio of capable bodies that could at least slow him down for spurts. He did miss two of the meetings but posted 34.8 and 40.9 FDP against them when healthy.
Rondo and Wade have loads of valuable playoff experience and four rings between the two of them, so this does help the Bulls’ outlook. Rondo has the much better matchup from a fantasy perspective and I expect him to grab a lot more rebounds than usual over the smaller Thomas, thus making him the best $/PT option on the board at his current price; look for that tag to increase as the series goes along. Both he and Wade are incredibly cheap right now for the upside they bring to the table, though.
RoLo, Mirotic and Portis are the guys that can take advantage of this weak Celtics interior. Taj Gibson had a few big games against the Celtics this season and these guys should be able to pick up the slack.
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Rockets won season series: 3-1
Prediction: Rockets in five
This will be the most highly anticipated first round playoff series, and for good reason, as it features the two marquee MVP candidates. I’m pretty sure that Russell Westbrook already locked it up, but the NBA is doing something different this year with the award and not announcing it until after The Finals are over. Technically, the voters aren’t supposed to take the playoffs into consideration, but I would find that very hard to do if given the opportunity.
Most of the regular season meetings were extremely close, but the Rockets are clearly the better team here. The one thing here to realize is that James Harden doesn’t have to go above and beyond on the stat sheet for the Rockets to be successful. He did a great job all season of making his teammates better, and that’s the main reason why I like them to move on to the next round.
Rockets impact players:
James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon –
Of course, Harden is the straw that stirs the drink for H-Town but OKC (a solid defensive team) has done a great job of keeping him in check from a fantasy perspective. Harden averaged just over six turnovers per game against OKC during the regular season, but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. Andre Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he makes it difficult for Harden to post the absurd numbers that we’re used to seeing. I’m incredibly nervous to fade Harden, but from a $/PT perspective, it’ll make sense often during this series.
Now, just because Harden doesn’t have monstrous numbers against OKC this season, that doesn’t mean everyone else can’t. The tricky thing with the Rockets is that you have to pick the right player on each given night because they rarely all go off together. Trevor Ariza, Lou Williams and Clint Capela have all had great success against OKC at some point in the regular season so these would be the best options to do it once again.
Thunder impact players:
Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo –
Clearly, Westbrook is the best option of these entire playoffs. He’ll cost you nearly the same price as a kidney on the open black market but it’s certainly worth it. If you thought Westbrook was inspired during the regular season, you haven’t seen anything yet. We’ll likely see his motor working on overdrive, especially since Harden is on the other side of this matchup. It’s also inspiring to see that Westbrook has improved incrementally each time out against the Rockets, even in a very tough individual matchup with Patrick Beverley.
The Rockets were incredibly vulnerable down low all season and that’s where Kanter and Adams come into play. Now, I’m not looking to use either guy as the anchor of my offense (I’ll save that for Westbrook), but if we see the Thunder favored by a big number at any point in this series that is where I’ll look to incorporate one of the two.
Oladipo will have the benefit of drawing the Harden or Ariza matchup- either of those guys are at a severe disadvantage on the defensive end. It came way back in the first meeting with the Rockets, but Oladipo posted a massive 55.5 DKP/49.5 FDP performance at that time, and also two other ones that were right around salary expectations.