A tradition like no other
Course Overview
Augusta National is an iconic 7,400 yard Par 72 with designed by Hall of Fame golf legend Bobby Jones and Alister MacKenzie. The course features large, super slick, bentgrass greens, wide fairways, and signature white feldspar bunkers. The greens, while large, are hard to stay on because of the tightly trimmed fringes that the ball can easily roll off of. Last year Augusta played as the 3rd hardest course on tour with golfers averaging 2.4 strokes over par. Disregarding Jordan Spieth’s record breaking 18 under finish in 2015 the winning score usually ends up in the range of 8-12 under par. It could be lower this year similar to last year with heavy winds in the forecast. Course history is incredibly important at Augusta along with pedigree. The pressure is on at this Major more than any other tournament. Statistically the course favors longer hitters with great approach games. We’ll be leaning heavily towards Driving Distance and SG: Approach along with SG: Around The Green since saving par after missing the green will be imperative. The greens are so incredibly tough that they act as an equalizer and we’ve seen bad putters have success here in the past.
It’s important to note the cut rule here at Augusta- after Friday’s round ends in order to make the cut you must be either in the top 50 on the leaderboard or be within 10 strokes of the lead. With only 96 people in the field and several of them being old former winners with no chance of doing well, it’s safe to say that at least 60% of the field will make the cut if not more.
High-End Picks
Jordan Spieth (DK: $11,500 FD: 10600)
Spieth’s course history speaks for itself with a win and 2 runner-up finishes. He was in position to defend his title last year until hole 12 of the 4th round where he blew up and allowed Danny Willett to sneak away with the win. He’s looked good so far this season with his only downfall being a poor driver. He’s incredibly fair priced on FD and makes for a chalky Rd 3-4 pick and on DraftKings he’s the most expensive player but probably still worth it if he has another top 3 finish.
Dustin Johnson (DK: $11,300 FD: $11,000)
While DJ has never won the Masters before, he broke through with his first Major last season at the US Open and since then has been the best golfer in the planet. He’s coming off of 3 straight wins including the last 2 WGC events where the best of the best all play together. If you look at the Efficiency Scoring sheet on the VIP Cheat Sheet, he ranks #1 on the slate and by a pretty decent margin. No one drives the ball better and if it weren’t for Spieth’s history here he’d be far and away the favorite. He’s going to have incredibly high ownership on both sites so be prepared for him to surpass 40% in tournaments.
Justin Rose (DK: $9,200 FD: $9,500)
Justin Rose has a long storied history of success at Augusta. He’s made all 11 cuts here in his career and has only once finished outside of the top 20- a T25 finish in 2013. Rose has made 5/5 cuts so far this season with 4 top 15 finishes, along with a gold medal finish at the Olympics. He’s very underpriced on both sites but will come with hefty ownership. He’s a lock in all cash games and should be rostered Rd 3-4 on FanDuel.
Jon Rahm (DK: $8,600 FD: $9,300)
While a first timer at Augusta hasn’t won since 1979, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a first timer coming in looking this good. He got his first Tour win at a strong field in Phoenix earlier this year and that was just 1 of 4 top 10 finishes in the last 2 months. He’s very long off of the tee and his approach game is rock solid as well. His scoring average on long par 4s is second only to DJ. He’s incredibly underpriced on DraftKings and might even still be worth is on FanDuel but to be safe you should use him in Rd 1-2 if you can.
Mid-Range Picks
Sergio Garcia (DK: $8,300 FD: $8,100)
While it may feel strange to use Sergio at a Major since he’s never won one, I still think he’s a cheap, safe bet at a solid finish here. He’s done pretty well here, making the cut almost every year and he’s played well in his 3 events so far this season. Statistically his game is exactly what we’re looking for. He absolutely excels at every aspect of tee to green but he has a bad putter.
Paul Casey (DK: $7,800 FD: $8,300)
While he may not be in the same elite form he displayed during the Fedex Cup Playoff, he’s been steadily making cuts so far this season. He’s coming off of 2 excellent finishes at Augusta- T4 last year and T6 in 2015. Casey is incredibly well-rounded statistically, performing above average in every statistical category kept on the VIP Cheat Sheet.
Tyrell Hatton (DK: $7,600 FD: $7,600)
Hatton is another first-timer expected to make waves at Augusta this week. His success on the European Tour got him invitations to the PGA Championship in 2015 where he finished T25 and he followed that up last year with top 10 finishes at the US Open and PGA Championship. Since making the trip to America for the Honda Classic, Hatton has posted 3 consecutive top 10 finishes at very strong fields. He’s been one of the best at SG: Approach in 2017 and he’s always been known as an excellent scrambler. If you look at the projections on the Domination Station, he’s tied with Justin Rose as the best value on the board.
Value Picks
Matt Kuchar (DK: $7,400 FD: $8,700)
While he’s certainly not a value on FanDuel, DraftKings has underpriced him criminally. Kuchar has made every cut here since 2010 and has top 27 finishes in 6/7 along with 3 top 10 finishes. While he’s certainly not long off of the tee, his approach game and smart golf mind keep him rolling steadily year to year. It’s not encouraging to see him miss the cut at Houston, but before that he was on a streak of 4/5 top 25 finishes. He makes for a good cash game pick on DraftKings.
Lee Westwood (DK: $7,200 FD: $7,100)
Westwood is among the best of the best course horses at Augusta. Last year we saw him tie with Spieth for 2nd and that’s just one of 6 top 11 finishes he’s posted since 2010. While his missed cut last week looked really bad, Westwood had been really rolling overseas including a T8 finish at the super strong field at Abu Dhabi (which was also a super long course) and T13 at the World Tour. (The European Tour’s championship)
Bill Haas (DK: $7,200 FD: $7,100)
Haas comes in at the exact same price as Westwood on both sites and is kind of the same play. He’s also got perfect course history here over the last 7 years, but he lacks the top 10 finishes. He does however have better recent form. He ranks 3rd on the Efficiency Scoring sheet.
Kevin Kisner (DK: $6,900 FD: $6,800)
Kisner has had a piping hot start to the season that most recently had him finishing 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Kisner made his Masters debut last year and he made the cut, so he represents a pretty strong salary saving play.
Adam Hadwin (DK: $6,900 FD: $6,300)
Adam Hadwin was always known as a lower tier golfer, but this year he has absolutely broken out into a force to be reckoned with. He’s made every single cut and he just got his first PGA Tour win at the Valspar Championship, following that up with a T6 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hadwin ranks very high in SG: Off The Tee due to a mix of power and accuracy, and his approach game has been solid. Hadwin makes for an awesome punt play on FanDuel at a reduced price, but I’d keep him in the Rd 1-2 slot.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $6,900 FD: $6,800)
Fleetwood has been a solid young golfer on the European Tour, breaking through with a win at the super stacked field at Abu Dhabi. In his first stint in North America he posted an impressive runner up finish at WGC Mexico and even posted a top 10 in America at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The statistical sample size is small, but he’s flashed an impressive tee to green game, especially around the green. The only concern with him is his past performances at Majors- outside of a T27 finish at the 2015 US Open, he’s missed the cut 3 times at the Open Championship and twice at the PGA Championship.
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Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
Taco’s Two Putt – DFS PGA – The Masters 2017
The PGA DFS Caddie: Early FanDuel and DraftKings Course and Statistical Strategy for the Masters
Shark Autopsy – Dissecting the Mass Multi-Entry Strategies of Top DFS Pros – The Houston Open
A Little Excited for Augusta: What to Expect on the Back Nine
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