The skies are clear and the engines are hot, its time to race at Richmond. After a confusing Bristol weekend, I am excited to enjoy somewhat of a normal race this weekend. Before you tackle this article, make sure you check out the podcast I recorded last night with my colleague Taco. We go over each and every driver in the field and give our thoughts. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
For a more in-depth look at Richmond as a track, check out my article from earlier this week here. For now lets look into what I think will be the top plays, fades and values moving into this week.
Top Plays
Denny Hamlin – When we recorded the podcast last night, my favorite play was Kyle Busch. Well that has changed. Hamlin has been fast all weekend and finished out the final practice with top 10 one lap speed and top two ten lap speed. If you watched final practice you know the talk around the track is that Hamlin is one of the cars to beat, and he has a lights out track record at Richmond, including a win last fall. He’s got a palatable price tag and rolling off 16th offers some insurance if he struggles to dominate. This play only hits two of three criteria for me though (track record and practice times, he lacks momentum) so I am not confident in going all in. That said, he will probably be my highest exposed driver.
Martin Truex Jr. – What a bizarre price this is. Truex showed us that we can neglect is track history if he rolls into the weekend with a rocketship for a car – and he has done that again this weekend. Top two in both single and ten lap practice just screams domination, and his third place starting spot helps that cause. As we talked about in the podcast, I think Truex has a real potential to get by Matt Kenseth early and dominate the first two segments. The two drivers rolling off ahead of him (Kenseth and Blaney) both failed to show domination type speed in final practice so if we are playing the stats – that should get you a lot of confidence in Truex. He has decent track record here and a huge amount of momentum – so he for sure ticks all three boxes for me. That said, he starts third so he carries a little more risk than Hamlin, and I think his ownership will be a little high thanks to his practice speeds and super low price.
Kyle Larson – In his own words, Larson is not great at Richmond. However, he has a real knack for bucking the “Im not good here” trend in 2017. He had top three single lap and ten lap by the end of final practice, and offers a pretty attractive 18th starting position. Larson will be super duper chalky this weekend, and his lack of proclaimed confidence does give me pause – but he has been lights out all year, has a fast car, and won the xFinity race. Seems like a safe play even if he doesn’t dominate.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth pole start is a bit confusing, because he hasn’t shown a ton of single lap speed this weekend. He does, however, have some pretty spectacular long run speed. Kenseth hasn’t been a dominator at all this year, and I am not convinced he will dominate this week. I do think he will compete for a win though. He has shown an incredible knack for finding his way to the top five towards the end of the race, and Richmond should be know different. In races that he finished here since 2013, he boasts a worst case scenario of 7th. So use your own process for this pick, if he stays out front for that first segment he will probably be in the optimal, if Truex passes him at the start, it could be big trouble for Matty K.
Fades
I really crapped the bed with my fade last week, so I will only say that I am not impressed with the Penske cars after third practice.
Values
All of the value plays are pretty obvious this week, so the chalk is going to real. There is an opportunity to play ownership a bit this week, but I’ll leave that up to you and just stick with the good plays
Erik Jones – At $8100, Jones isn’t really a value play, but I just can’t bring myself to put him in the top plays just because he hasn’t been a top play yet this year. That said, this as close to a top play any rookie has been this year. Starting 20th provides great differential potential, and his practice speeds suggest that he can absolute compete for a win this week and maybe even dominate a portion of the race. My one concern is that he will have to beat his teammate Truex, who will have atleast as good of a car. Regardless, look for Jones to compete for a top five and have a great chance at being in the optimal.
Austin Dillon – He starts 38th. He could sneeze and be in the optimal. Play him.
Paul Menard – Menards final practice times are a big concerning, but I think they were playing with scuffs tires while everyone else was rolling with stickers. Menard rolls of 26th with a decent track record at Richmond. He has been really frustrating this year because he has found trouble towards the end of every race. At this point its just a matter of if he can avoid trouble but with how low variance Richmond is, I feel confident rolling him out this week.
Kasey Kahne – Rolling off 19th, Kahne is poised to have a breakout performance this weekend. Richmond is one of his best tracks on the circuit, and he has shown that so far in practice with top eight single lap and ten lap speed. Last year at Richmond he brought it home 6th and 4th, if he can replicate that he will be in the optimal. If he falls short of that he will still be a decent play. Really happy to play him at significant exposure this week.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. A couple other drivers we are going to talk about in the Slack forum are Kyle Busch and the other members of the Hendrick camp and as always, I will always have more to add so I will be updating my thoughts on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good look this week, and let’s make some cash.