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Kickin it on the Pitch w/ TreyJ – EPL DFS – 4/24/17

BONUS! The schedule gets a little funky this time of year.  We have the FA Cup winding down and there is champions league soccer and all of it throws the schedule off a bit for select teams.  We had 4 matches on saturday and 2 on sunday but sound math says that there should be 4 games missing.  Well here ya go.  Chelsea v Southampton on Tuesday. Arsenal v Leicester, Middlesbrough v Sunderland, and Crystal Palace v Tottenham on Wednesday.  On DK, that Chelsea/Southampton match is on an interleague slate.  If you are playing it, good for you.  If not, just pay attention to the rest of it.  

Chelsea v Southampton

Southampton has been giving up goals to the opportunistic.   We have seen goals come from up and down the pitch, so do your research there.  Chelsea hasn’t allowed a goal from a non-forward in 2017.  I could very well see Manolo Gabbiadini getting off the schnide, here.  I do not see a shutout here, as southampton, from a stylistic standpoint, has the type of team that can match Chelsea in a possession game.  It probably shades toward the Chelsea side but that could mean there is enough value to support looking at the the other side of this match.

Arsenal v Leicester

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  Arsenal has been reeling and some of their stars have been thinking about jumping ship over the summer.  Arsene Wenger to the rescue!  He did something these past couple games that he has not done since 1997 and employed a different formation than his usual 4-2-3-1.  If you are focusing your research on just their recent home matches, you would get a different picture than their most recent 2 matches in all competitions.  We should see Arsenal attack in a 3-4-2-1 formation.  They are 2-0 with it and Arsenal look renewed. What we likely won’t see is Arsenal that possesses the ball 60% of the game, but the overall product is much improved.

 

So how does that help us?  Watch to see who they use up front.  This new style of play requires more out of them.  It will almost certainly be Sanchez and Ozil as 2 of the 3 in the attacking roles, but a surge from Danny Welbeck and a somewhat uninspiring run in the FA Cup semis from Giroud could net Danny Welbeck a Premiership start.  Alexis Sanchez, among other, have become useful again.  

 

On the Leicester side, they are dealing with a few injuries.  The most notable are Wes Morgan and Islam Slimani.  Leicester has a plethora of capable centerbacks, so they can fill Morgan’s void. Slimani was a mainstay up front and that will put a bit more attention on Jamie Vardy.  While Arsenal have been better defensively, they still force teams to get in tight to get the goals.  They defend the long shots well and Cech is playing as well as he has all season.  If I am going to use Leicester, I want their forwards.  I probably only want Jamie Vardy.  Just when you think  he should stop scoring he continues to score.  He does have an entire season of sucking to make up for.

Middlesbrough v Sunderland

A showdown of the two worst teams in the Premiership.  Neither of these teams do well when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net but maybe that is what they need to get in gear.  Attacking this game is not for the faint of heart.  It could be a nil-nil match or it could be 2-2.  My money’s on the former.  If you are a cash payer, you may want to stay away from anyone not manning the back line.

Crystal Palace v Tottenham

Can anyone stop Palace?  They have won 7 of their last 8 and look to be peaking at the right time.  Good things could be in their future next season.  As for this game, they have a tall task.  Tottenham has been a force when they have had their attacking pieces.  Yea I know Danny Rose is still out but they have adjusted since his injury.  The only thing I could see is that they have been a little weak on their left side.  Maybe this means Wilfried Zaha could join the scoring party?  

 

For Tottenham, the scoring should get done up front.  There has been solid input from the likes of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen.  Eriksen actually makes a solid cash play.  He has at least an assist or a goal in 6 of his last 8 games.  Harry Kane has 54.55% scoring odds.  Dele Alli has 42.11% scoring odds. After Diego Costa, these are some of the best scoring odds on the slate.

Between the Sticks

  1. Jordan Pickford – Boro has a tough time getting balls on frame but sunderland gives up a lot of shots.  Worth a shot in GPPs.
  2. Petr Cech – Arsenal have been working hard on the defensive side and Petr Cech is still a world class keeper. They should give up a fair number of shots

 

For the rest of my picks, come join me in the #soccer-talk slack channel.  There you can find my team sheets loaded with key stats and info.
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