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JD’s Junk Yard Dogs for DK DFS April 12th 2017 Playoff Edition

Back with another Junk Yard Dogs blog post, where I discuss players from the junk end of the cost scale who might be able to help with your line up builds.

Welcome to the Playoffs!  The first round of NHL playoffs is always one of my favorite times of the year.  Usually 2 games at least on TV every night, its intense, its fun, and I find the first round generally the least predictable which makes for good watching as a fan.  This is my first year doing DFS during the playoffs, so although I know just from being a fan that playoff hockey is different from regular season hockey, its hard for me to put into words how it will impact us as far as our lineup choices go.   Games tend to be closer, with tight checking lower scoring.  Special teams take on more importance, as you almost never see the Stanley Cup champs not having at least a top end power play or penalty kill.   It seems refs tend to let more things go in the playoffs, which means more limited pp opportunities, so teams with good ones can really use that to their advantage.  You can anticipate seeing less of our so called value plays as they tend to be 3 and 4 liners and 3 rd pairing defense, which can translate into less ice time in those close games, and less ice time means less opportunity to get us points.  Having said that we still need to look at these guys to help us find value plays so we can pay up elsewhere, so let’s dive in.

The theory behind this is based on @choppodong ‘s Bottom Up line up building videos, which if you haven’t watched you really should. You can find them here ( YouTube ). For more detailed versions, join dfsarmy.com‘s vip program and gain full access. Use OPENINGDAY to unlock a no-catch 7 day pass that shows you cheatsheets, stats pages, the optimizer, and our slack forums with access to all our coaches focused on making you a better player.

Please remember I am not one of the coaches, but am really just sharing my own research.
This is focused on cash games on DK. I am not speaking to what position they or their teams are in for today’s specific games, just pointing out players you might want to look at for your bottom up build. These guys provide value for their price.
Remember, for value we are looking for players hitting about .6 points or more per $1000 in price. We are generally looking at players whose DK cost is $4500 or under. This isn’t to say there aren’t value players at higher cost, but the purpose of this blog is to help you find those cheaper plays that leave you lot of cap room to fit in those studs you want.
Numbers shown are their price and avg points over the last 10 games, and all players listed have hit value in at least 6 of those 10 games. In some cases with Defense there is another number in brackets. This number is their avg points from shots and blocked shots alone. These players are hitting value on avg even without being involved in scoring.

 

DEFENCE

Nurse (EDM) 3.1k  2.8 pts (2)

Larsson (EDM) 3.2 k 2.2 pts

Schlemko ( SJ) 3.3 k 2.9 pts (2.3)

J. Johnson (CLB) 3.4 k 2.7 pts

Beaulieu ( MTL) 3.5 k 2.7 pts

Girardi (NYR) 3.5 K 2.3 pts

Russell ( EDM) 3.7 k 3.9 pts ( 2.6)

Ceci ( OTT) 4 K 2.9 pts ( 2.1)

Sekera ( EDM) 4.2 k 3.4 pts ( 2.2)

Vlasic (SJ) 4.2 4 3.4 pts (2)

Did you notice the pattern?  4 out of my 10 D men are Oilers.   Edmonton has been playing really well lately, led by 100pt man McDavid, but are obviously getting lots of support from the back end.  The downside?  The Oilers has a team do not have a lot of playoff experience.  That can sometimes be a downfall.  Talking heads often say a team needs to lose to learn how to win.  So it wont surprise me if the Oilers don’t come out of the first round.   The Sharks have some injury problems though, starting with Big Joe upfront who is day to day at this point.  There are 2 Sharks on the list as well.   This could be an interesting series.

 

WINGER

Lehkonen ( MTL) 3.7 k 4.1 pts is the only winger that met our threshold for value.  Although he is on the 3rd line he has been hot lately greatly exceeding his value.

CENTRE

Barbashev (STL) 2.8 k 2.1 pts

Hanzel ( MIN) 4.5 K 3 pts.

The usual slim pickings at centre don’t leave us much.  But looking one step further we see that Barbashev has been moved up to centre the 1st line along side Tarasenko and Schwartz.  Both those guys are hitting their value level but their price exceeds what we are looking for in this article.  But this puts Barbashev in a great spot to hit some points tonight.  The only question that would stop me from rostering him tonight is which Wild team will show up?  If Dubnyk is on this could be a short and low scoring series.  If it’s the guy of the last couple of months it really opens things up for these Blues players.

 

Goal is a really tough spot tonight, as due to excluding some teams from the playoffs, all of our potential free squares are off the board, so even though the vegas odds aren’t out as of writing, I wouldn’t call any game an easy call.  Bobrovsky should get some year end hardware for his shelf, but is playing the penguins.  Dubnyk has been all world at times this year, and all not at other times.   Rask might seem like a good play, but the Sens won every game against Bos this year.   So I think putting our heads together in chat to pool our info to get some consensus might be the best advice I can offer you for that.

For what its worth, I am predicting that this is the year for the Capitals.   Which means Tor will sweep them with my luck!