Welcome to a quick-hitting column designed to get your DFS MLB research pointed in the right direction. Many of us don’t have the time in our days to pour over every detailed baseball statistic when trying to build our own winning lineups. As a result a lot of us turn to lineup sellers and providers for convenience. In the DFSArmy, we believe there is no better satisfaction in building your own competitive lineup. By teaching you the fundamentals of construction, and providing some time-saving research, we are attempting to reassure our members that it CAN BE DONE! Building winning lineups doesn’t have to take all day.
If you haven’t seen our early season content, you need to look at how far we’ve come. Every other day, you will see an alternating format between Al Walsh of “Walsh’s Way” and Adam Burns of “Analytic’s Corner.” These slate breakdowns are about the best I’ve seen in a few years of scouring the web looking for a way to make my research more efficient.
Quick Glance
Quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
MLB Pitching – Foundation to Winning Lineups
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – You’re going to hear this all year most likely. Just start here on FD and move on. Find your value, and cut your production in Coors tonight as a result. It’s just the way it has to be for the fundamentally sound lineup builder. Take risks in bigger GPPs, but realize it doesn’t usually work out when choosing to fade Kershaw. KScore – 522, for reference.
Dallas Keuchel (HOU) – Usually a decent choice at home, I’m not on him tonight. KScore – 387 tells me the strikeout potential just isn’t there with Kershaw on the slate.
Danny Duffy (KCR) – Not a huge Vegas favorite and in a hitting park. KScore – 419 also suggests the strikeout upside isn’t there to compete at this salary level with Kershaw.
Michael Wacha (STL) – Wacha has been a pleasant surprise early this season. At this price point, you can actually compete with Kershaw by getting into Coors tonight. If you are going to fade Kershaw, you need to save thousands and make up for it in bats. KScore – 434 and facing an anemic TOR team in a pitcher’s park? Not a bad place to take a shot.
Vincent Velasquez (PHI) – Not as dangerous as the BOS or NYM games, but a significant pitching risk nonetheless. Rain chances will have you glued to the radar this afternoon. You can’t handle a delay with a pitcher. But, the KScore of 500 is second only to Kershaw on the slate and ownership should be really low. VV has the upside to win the slate in terms of fantasy points tonight.
Results
I don’t show you this to toot my horn. I do so to show you my process works. Read through it. Follow along day to day. I try my best to articulate everything I have to my fellow DFS players. I don’t make a habit out of holding back information like many other “pundits” and “experts” around the industry. With me, what you see is what you get.
And, the coaching works, too. A couple of recent testimonials….
Winners of all shapes and sizes live here now. Big ballers and #SmallaBallas like me. No experience, a lot of experience, somewhere in between also makes no difference. Join in and learn and/or help others learn. If this is you, the Army needs your help growing the best DFS MLB brand in the industry!
Who to Attack with Bats
In a simple list form, these are your pitchers running over a 5.00 SIERA: Covey (CWS), Hahn (OAK)
These are running over 4.50: Zimmermann (DET), Blach (SFG), Cashner (TEX)
Simply put, we want to load up on the hot hitting bats facing these running poorly pitchers.
Building winning lineups is as simple as starting the best pitching and targeting the worst pitching with your bats. People love to overthink this stuff. And while outliers in lineups do exist, playing the odds from Vegas will lead you in the right direction more times than not.
Follow me on Twitter @Choppodong and inside the dfsarmy.com where our contributors and coaches talk with you in real-time. Our goal is to get you up to speed, competitive, and building winning lineups whether you’ve been playing for 3 years or whether this is your first season and you’ve never watched a game of baseball. It doesn’t matter to us. Use code OPENINGDAY for a free VIP trial in the Army. See you inside!
MLB Hitting – Bats for Your Winning Lineups
Here we look for the higher implied MLB totals out of Vegas in terms of scoring runs. And, where possible, we try to focus on the side of the plate the pitcher shows weakness. Sometimes he shows weakness to both sides.
Primary
WAS both – Eaton, Turner, HARPER, ZIMMERMANN, Murphy, Werth
COL lefties – BLACKMON, LeMahieu, Arenado, Gonzalez, Reynolds, Story
ARI righties – POLLOCK, Owings, Goldschmidt, Lamb, TOMAS, Peralta, IANETTA
MIL lefties – Villar, THAMES, BRAUN, Shaw, Santana, Bandy
MIN both – Dozier, Kepler, SANO, Mauer, GROSSMAN, Castro
SDP righties – Margot, MYERS, Solarte, Renfroe, HEDGES…..special note (this is likely where all the Kershaw lovers go for value)
Secondary
LAA lefties, CIN lefties/both, SEA righties, BAL lefties, HOU righties, BOS righties
These are your focus spots tonight. Look into their numbers and roster the best from each lineup you can. I like OBP as a stat because it shows you players NOT MAKING OUTS, which is of primary importance in MLB. If any of the above made you feel skimmed or confused, read through my Top 10 Ways to Win at Daily Fantasy Baseball and you will see a more detailed description of my process.
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. And, don’t forget to use your code OPENINGDAY when signing up for that 7 day pass at DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related.
We played a fun little game last year where I posted a picture of my “Dong Call” of the day. I tried to make the picture obscure enough it wasn’t just giving you the player’s name. Today, I’m doing that again if you scroll back up and look at the lead picture. Who is it? Give me a follow and tweet me @ChoppoDong if you know!