UPDATE: I TOTALLY FORGOT ABOUT THE TEXAS REPAVE – IT’S ESSENTIALLY A NEW TRACK. THIS ARTICLE STILL MAY BE OF SOME USE, BUT IM GOING TO HAVE TO START MY RESEARCH OVER AND ATTACK THIS FROM A DIFFEREN PERSPECTIVE. CHECK BACK SATURDAY FOR MORE UPDATES. SHOUT OUT TO /U/STEEDYG14 ON REDDIT FOR MENTIONING IT!
Martinsville was the best. Martinsville was just the best. We have an amazing week with some GPP wins and I can’t wait to keep it going at Texas. This is the primer article, the good one that has been winning all the money is posted on Saturday. Until then it would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Today we will spend some time learning about Texas, and which drivers are primed to make it happen. Let’s start by getting a high level overview of Texas:
Track Specifications:
Track Length: 1.5 Mile (334 laps = 501 miles)
Race Length: 500 Miles (1) 500 Miles (2)
Width: 80 feet in turns 1 & 2
Width: 60 feet in turns 3 & 4
Banking in Corners 1 and 2: 20 degrees
Banking Corners 3 and 4: 24 degrees
Banking on Dogleg: 5 degrees
Banking on Backstretch: 5 degrees
Frontstretch: 2,250 feet
Backstretch: 1,330 feet
Pit Road: 45 pit stalls for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Pit Road Speed: 45mph
Pace Car Speed: 55mph
So we have 334 laps on a 1.5 mile Dogleg oval, much like Atlanta which we tackled a few weeks ago. The most glaring difference is that Texas is much less punishing on tires. Luckily, we were at Texas only a couple months ago. Now keep in mind, this race was run with a much different aero package, but I still think we can learn from the 2016 battle.
So Joey dominated, what else is new? Outside of Joey, Carl Edwards and Truex are the only others who led more than a handful of laps. This isn’t uncommon at Texas, one or two dominators is usually the norm, so it will be important to find those. To do that, lets look into average running position at Texas since 2005.
Let’s talk about Chase Elliott. I have been saying for weeks that Chase is going to win one of the first races of the season, and I’ll my research is pointing towards this being the week. Chase has an amazing handle on Texas and has won here in the xFinity series. In his first two races here he racked up an average finish of 4.5 to post against an average running position of 8.5. If you pair that with his incredible start to 2017, he is in a great position to pick up his first career win this week.
Another one to watch this week is Erik Jones, who has dominated at Texas in every series, and this is one of the few tracks he has Cup experience at. In his first Cup start he had an impressive average finish of 11th. Pair that with his excellent start to 2017, I really think he is a contender this week. Keep an eye on him in practice.
Next I want to look at fast laps, because they will play a huge part this week.
I think Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are inherently good plays this week. To start, Kyle Busch is really good at Texas and is knocking on the door of a win every week. His team is bringing great speed to the race track and as you can see, he has a nose for fast laps here. So let’s bookmark him.
Next, Matt Kenseth has pretty much stunk this year, along with most of Joe Gibbs Racing. BUT, they are getting better, as Kyle Busch showed last week. Texas is probably one of Kenseth best track, so if he is going to turn it around this is the track to do it.
Next, the elephant in the room – Jimmie Johnson. To the surprise of no one, Jimmie Johnson tops just about any stat you look at for Texas. But, as you all know, he has really struggled this year. I think if we see Jimmie showing speed during practice we are really going to need to consider him. He is so so good at 1.5 miles and will probably go under owned based on his struggles. Keep an eye on JJ.
While it is too early to dig into real value plays, I think it is worthwhile to look at Kasey Kahne, who has above average stats at Texas, and Ty Dillon and Daniel Suarez who will have better equipment than everyone else in their price range at – at a track where car can outweigh driver.
So to summarize, we really need to keep an eye on Chase, Ky. Busch, Matt Kenseth, Johnson, Kahne, Ty. Dillon and Suarez. We need to find our two dominators in practice, and we need to find a couple place differential guys to build our core. Lets get it! See you Saturday.
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