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The Competition Caution 2017 NASCAR DFS Richmond Preview

After a week off and a rain filled week of NASCAR insanity, we are poised to return to semi-normalcy this week as we rip into Richmond for a little short track fun. Richmond is a really fun track that certain drivers really excel at, so there is certainly and edge to be found. That said, it’s been a bit of a strange year. Kevin Harvick as not been able to replicate his dominance, the Toyotas seem to lack the overall speed advantage they enjoyed last year, and Hendrick clearly is a step behind – save for the brilliance of Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus. Historical stats are still significant, but it is becoming more and more important to monitor the practices and similar races with this aerodynamics packages. The best way to keep up with all this is to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. Let’s start our research by taking a high-level look at Richmond:

Track Specifications:
Short Track: 0.75-mile oval, 60-foot width with 10-foot apron
Banking: turns: 14 degrees; front stretch 8 degrees; backstretch 2 degrees
Straights: Backstretch – 860 feet; Frontstretch – 1290 feet
Stages: 1 ends lap 100, 2 at lap 200, race finish is lap 400 (OT possible)

Richmond is a very unique racetrack with not much in the way of sister tracks to lean on for statistics. So let’s look back at some historical Richmond stats. I want to start with average running position, a stat I’ve grown to love.


Two things jump out here that I want to investigate. I am going to gloss over Kevin Harvick for now, and focus on Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. I would say these two drivers are among the elite so far this year, even though Kyle Busch has had some bad luck. They both have been bringing fast race cars to the track and should do so again this weekend. If they do that, given their history at Richmond, I think these two will be your best bet for dominators. Lets start with Kyle Busch.

Good luck finding a Richmond stat that Kyle Busch doesn’t appears near the top of the field, because he is very VERY good here. He has finished in the top five at 60% of the races he suited up for here, and finished inside the top 2 for 43% of those times. His worst finish EVER is 24th, which is staggering. He gets to the front, stays out of trouble, and competes for the win EVERY. DAMN. TIME. Even if the Joe Gibbs cars are missing a step, I anticipate Kyle will be a big factor this weekend.

Brad Keselowski is kind of an enigma at Richmond. In late 2013-2015, Brad K was a world beater at Richmond. He was leading lots of laps and competing for wins all most every time he hit the track. Last year his performance petered off, but I think that has more to do with Joe Gibbs’ dominance during that time. I still think Brad K. is one of the best Richmond drivers in the field, and he will no doubt have one of the best cars. Keep an eye on him in practice, if he shows any speed at all – I will have him in my lineups REGARDLESS of starting position, because he is likely dominator.


Another stat I have grown to love is quality passes. It is a great indicator of a drivers ability to manipulate the different lines of a race track, and can expose those likely to be solid differential plays. Obviously this means I am going to keep an eye on Ryan Newman this week. Newman has struggled mightily at Richmond as of late, and really doesn’t show up much in the stats – except quality passes. Statistically and historically, Richmond is Ryan Newmans second best track and his confidence is high. His practice performance will be very telling, but I will almost certainly have exposure to the Rocket Man.

It’s worth noting that you may have noticed, Kevin Harvick has shown up a lot too. I am not sold on Harvick as a dominator this season, so I want to see him in practice before we talk too much about him – so circle back for him.

Kasey Kahne is another one with a solid track history. He has had consistent positive place differential at Richmond over the last few years, and has had top fives. If any of the Jimmie Johnson mojo can rub off on the rest of the Hendrick camp, Kasey Kahne should be motoring this weekend.

The biggest challenge this week is going to be find quality value plays. Richmond doesn’t have a whole lot of incident exposure so gaining spots through wrecks is unlikely, so we need to target either super poor qualifiers that have quantifiable power, or the super scrubs that have more power than the true back markers.  We will dig into this a little more during Taco’s Fast 40 on Friday, so make sure you check back.

So in summary, Kyle Busch, Brad K., Newman, Kahne, and MAYBE Kevin Harvick stick out as the most interesting plays this week, so spend some time with them. It’s going to be a great week.

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