Annnnnnnd we’re back. After what seemed like an eternity the Monster Energy Nascar Cup Series is primed to hit the track this weekend at one of the circuits most exciting tracks! However, much like Texas, we are left scratching our heads wondering what to expect this weekend. Combined with the impending Tennessee weather, it could be a crazy week. But thats good! We tend to thrive in chaotic situations. Remember this is just a primer article, the good one that has been winning all the money is posted on Saturday. Until then it would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Bristol Motor Speedway:
0.533-mile concrete oval
Degree of banking in corners: 24 to 30 degrees
Degree of banking in straights: 4 to 9 degrees
Straightaways: 650 feet long.
Concrete racing surface: 43 feet wide.
Bristol has two pits roads: 22 pit stalls on the front stretch and 21 on the back stretch
Pit Stall Size: 25.5 feet long, 15.5 feet wide
Pit Road Speed: 30 mph
Pace Car Track Speed: 35mph
Bristol is a whole different animal from any track on the circuit (save for maybe Dover?). We go there twice a year, once in the day and once at night, and the track surface has been mangled and bastardized to no end – and that isn’t a bad thing. This year, Bristol is going back to the well with the track sealant on the bottom line that they debuted last year. For those who are new to the sport – Bristol has progressive banking. Tracks do this in an attempt to make the bottom line and top line equally fast. However, when Bristol implemented this banking style they kind of overdid it. For years after, the racing was quite dull, as everyone had to run the top line, and there was no passing. Last fall, they tried to rectify this by painting the bottom line a grippy sealant, which actually worked for most of the race and we had side-by-side racing again! Towards the end of the race, the sealant wore off, and we were back to follow the leader on the top line. During the offseason, Bristol has worked to add a more permanent form of sealant – but its effectiveness will be unknown until the race this weekend is run. This is important because IF it is effective, the potential of place differential plays being effective is much higher.
That’s not the only red flag this weekend, the weather is looking pretty crummy and I would hazard to guess that most practices and qualifying will be cancelled.
So where does that leave us? An unknown track with potentially no practice and a starting lineup set by points, not speed…oh boy. So what we can do? We have to go back and look at Bristols history, especially last fall’s race with the new sealant. We also have to look at drivers who strive when there are unknowns.
So if we look back at last fall’s race (with the sealant), Kyle Busch dominated before getting caught up in some trouble. This isn’t much of a surprise. Kyle is a great Bristol driver, and always strives in a rocky environment (he won the first race with the Car of Tomorrow, which was at Bristol). Now Joe Gibbs has struggled this year, but that won’t last. I am guessing it wasn’t much of a week off at JGR and these folks are going to come to the track with rocket ships. I will have an eye on Kyle Busch, and his Joe Gibbs teammates Denny and Matt Kenseth as well.
And this is why I will be on Joe Gibbs Racing. They always show up at Bristol. Kenseth spends 77% of laps in the top 15 at Bristol which is inhuman. Coupled with a drool-worthy quality pass percentage of 76% – Kenseth is straight money at Bristol. If qualifying is cancelled, he will start towards the back and he will be a must play.
Another one that pops up in the box score is Chase Elliott. The youngster has had a great career at Bristol with a second best 70% quality pass percentage. Chase obviously has fast cars this years and will be worth a look this week.
Next I want to talk about the elephant in the room – Ricky Stenhouse JR. This will be EVERYONES value play of the week, because he always ends up in the top ten towards the end of races at Bristol. Couple that with the fact that the Roush Fenway collective has had tremendous success in 2017, he is going to be very very chalky this week. Hopefully we get some practice this week, but I am not one hundred percent sold. He is priced up to $7,100 this week, and his stats OUTSIDE of average finish are pretty pedestrian. He MIGHT be a valuable fade this weekend, but we will talk more on Saturday.
A value play I am interested in is Ryan Newman, who has a pretty impressive driver rating for a driver priced in the 7000s, he also has a 60%+ quality pass rating at Bristol. He has had a very good season, and is experienced enough to thrive in murky circumstances. Keep an eye on him this weekend too.
So in summary, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Ryan Newman stick out as the most interesting plays this week, so spend some time with them this week. It’s going to be a wacky week, so we have to find some edge outside of practice speeds.
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