Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Last night was probably one of the tougher slates for us on the free squares. Adam Wainwright didn’t have the outing we were looking forward too. Matt Joyce did not do anything at the plate. Austin Hedges did not even make the lineup which is something I usually make sure to update but did not foresee him having a day off. Just an ugly slate all around and we go one to the next one.
Tonight
Fortunately for us, this is a daily game and we have a really good slate to get back on the winning sides of things. Fridays are some of my favorite MLB states and this one looks to be no different. We have 15-games on the slate tonight so let’s not waste any time and dive right into it:
Free Squares
- Jameson Taillon SP PIT ($7,400)
- Jameson Taillon and the Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Miami tonight to take on the Marlins and pitcher Adam Conley. The Pirates are currently +108 underdogs, and the Marlins have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.79 runs. Taillon has pitched in 4 games this season with two solid outings and two less than stellar outings. Let’s take a look at his numbers on the season so far: 19.4 K%, 9.7 BB%, 4.03 SIERA, 3.71 xFIP, .252 wOBA to lefties, and a .343 wOBA to righties. He is having a pretty solid year so far. We already have the Marlins lineup out which is nice and although they have been having a pretty solid year averaging right around 4.74 runs this season I like the matchup for Taillon tonight. If we take a look at our DFS Army VIP Lineup Page we have DFSA Grade of 31.17 which is a nice favorable number for Taillon. We have a DFSA Grade of 67.87 for Taillon himself. I usually tend to trust Vegas and while Taillon is a slight underdog tonight I think he is the best pitcher available as a value play tonight. He is not going to rack up loads of strikeouts, but if he can get us around 5-6 strikeouts tonight and limit the earned runs I think he will reach and exceed value for us.
- Tyler Saladino 2B CHW ($3,200)
- Tyler Saladino and the Chicago White Sox will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Matt Boyd tonight at Comerica Park. The White Sox currently have an implied run-total sitting at right around 4.25 runs. Saladino has been having a decent year, but I love him in this spot against lefty Matt Boyd tonight. Let’s take a look at Saladino’s numbers against lefties this season: .071 ISO, .375 BABIP, .343 wOBA, and 124 wRC+. Matt Boyd has the following numbers against righties on the season: .325 wOBA, 5.03 xFIP, 14.1 BB%. He got rocked in his first game of the season against the Tigers and we hope that White Sox can get to Boyd again. Saladino has a little bit of history against Boyd with 7ab’s, .378 wOBA, .825 OPS. Not a huge sample size by any means but at least he has some familiarity against Boyd. I love Saladino tonight as a one off at second base as he is pretty cheap and will be getting a ton of opportunities at the plate as most projection have him batting first or second in the lineup.
- Tyler Collins OF DET ($2,700)
- I do not mind targeting White Sox hitters against Matt Boyd tonight, and I especially like targeting hitters against former Tiger Mike Pelfrey tonight. The Tigers currently have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.74 runs tonight. Tyler Collins is coming off back to back solid performances and we hope that trend continues tonight against the always targetable Mike Pelfrey. Collins comes into the game tonight averaging the following numbers against righties on the season: .115 ISO, .421 BABIP, .352 wOBA, 130 wRC+. Collins is a platoon type guy who we always like to look to target when he is facing righties. Is there a much better righty for him to face than Pelfrey tonight? Pelfrey is not a good pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and I am surprised he still has a job in the big leagues after the Tigers let him go. He has only pitched in one game this season and it did not go well. I absolutely love a Tigers stack tonight against their old teammate and will be having Collins as a one-off on teams as well. He is very affordable tonight, has a great matchup, and should see a lot of fantasy opportunities.
Free Square of the Night
I am really liking this slate compared to last nights. I think there are a number of ways to go with regards to which team we are looking to target hitters from tonight. Some big arms on the slate for pitching which means we are going to have to get creative with reagrds to our hitters. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Tiger Tyler Collins! Good luck tonight DFS Army!
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