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Atlanta Hawks (-2, ML: -115) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 210.5
—————-Pace> ATL: 10 – PHI: 5
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 27 – PHI: 30
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 4 – PHI: 15
Matchup:
*Both teams on the back-end of a B2B
*Hawks won all meetings (ATL: 104 – @PHI: 72), (@ATL: 117 – PHI: 96), (@ATL: 110 – PHI: 93)
*Hawks are 9-1 (8-2 ATS) vs Sixers in their last 10 meetings
ATL:
*9-6 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
-Thabo Sefolosha (QUESTIONABLE- groin)
-Kent Bazemore (PROBABLE- knee)
-Paul Millsap (OUT- knee)
-Mike Dunleavy (OUT- ankle)
I’m a bit skeptical about the Hawks in tonight’s scenario, regardless of all the value and great matchups they bring to the table. Both teams are on the back-end of a B2B and it’s also their third game in four nights; these games tend to be sloppy, slow and very unenergetic. I will say, though, these three games for the Hawks in four games were against the Nets, Suns and now the Sixers- these idiots lost the game against the Nets, though. Ha!
Any time a center is up against the Sixers, we have much love for them. I’m not sure who is going to stop Dwight Howard except…Dwight Howard. He’s double-doubled in each of the last two meetings with the Sixers.
Ersan Ilyasova played for the Sixers earlier this season, so I’m not sure I’d consider this a revenge game. I do think he’ll have some emotions playing a former team, but that’s not what I’m giddy about- it’s his matchup against Dario Saric and the fact that he’s posted at least 30 FDP in each of the last two games.
Taurean Prince loses some of his appeal with Kent Bazemore coming back to the Hawks lineup. I’m sure he’ll still hit value but the massive upside aspect of things totally disappears.
Tim Hardaway Jr screwed a lot of people over last night, but this might be a good spot to go back to him. Honestly, I liked this idea a lot more with Bazemore not playing so I could do without it, but it’s still intriguing for GPPs.
PHI:
*5-13 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
*47-26 ATS as the underdog, 20-11 ATS vs teams with a winning record
*19-8 ATS in their last 27 games
-Jahlil Okafor (OUT- knee)
-Robert Covington (OUT- rest/knee)
-Gerald Henderson (PROBABLE- hip)
-Sergio Rodriguez (QUESTIONABLE- hamstring)
With Robert Covington out of the lineup, that should give Dario Saric a huge boost in shot attempts. He is averaging 3.4 more FDP at home than on the road this season and his matchup against former teammate Ersan Ilyasova is one of the best on the board. This also gives a sizeable boost to Justin Anderson and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.
TJ McConnell is still a solid play, but only if Sergio Rodriguez is out.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, ML: -230) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 218
—————-Pace> OKC: 7 – ORL: 15
OFF Efficiency> OKC: 16 – ORL: 29
DEF Efficiency> OKC: 11 – ORL: 21
Matchup:
*Magic won the only meeting (ORL: 119 – @OKC: 117, OT)
*Thunder are 4-1 (1-4 ATS) vs Magic in their last five meetings
*Four of the last five Magic/Thunder games have gone OVER the total
OKC:
*26-16-1 ATS as the favorite
*13-22-1 ATS on the road
-NO INJURIES
Russell Westbrook has owned the Magic in each of the last four meetings…
Don’t forget that Victor Oladipo has himself a revenge game against the only NBA team he had ever known before this season. If you’re a skeptic like me, Oladipo’s first meeting against the Magic only notched him 17 fantasy points and change on both sites.
ORL:
*12-24-1 ATS at home
-Jeff Green (OUT- back)
Elfrid Payton could be a great ping-pong candidate with Westbrook. He did post 52.8 DKP/50.9 FDP against the Thunder earlier this season and has also exceeded 5x value in nine of his last 13 games.
Nikola Vucevic has averaged 41.7 DKP/40.3 FDP over the last eight games.
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (-6) – O/U: 205
—————-Pace> CHA: 19 – TOR: 22
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 14 – TOR: 4
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 9 – TOR: 8
Matchup:
*Raptors lead season series (TOR: 113 – @CHA: 111), (@CHA: 113 – TOR: 78), (@TOR: 90 – CHA: 85)
CHA:
*4-10 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
*11-17 ATS as the underdog
*3-13 ATS vs Atlantic Division
-Ramon Sessions (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Johnny O’Bryant (OUT- ankle)
Kemba Walker has averaged 40.6 FDP over the last four games and he gets a fantastic matchup against Corey Joseph, who ranks down near the bottom of DRPM for all point guards.
Cody Zeller was a major disappointment last night in a great matchup, but don’t forget that he reached 6-7x value in four of the five games prior to that.
TOR:
*21-15-1 ATS at home
*15-7 ATS after a win by 10+ points
-Kyle Lowry (OUT- wrist)
-DeMarre Carroll (QUESTIONABLE- back)
DeMar DeRozan has posted at least 44 FDP in three of his last six games against the Hornets. However, his last two games (both this season) have only gone for a combined 39.2 FDP. The Hornets did a great job of slowing down The Greek last night, so what’s to stop them from doing the same to DRZ?
Serge Ibaka gets a fantastic matchup against Marvin Williams. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in three of the last six games against the Hornets, including 39.8 DKP/37.9 FDP in the last meeting. If everything holds true about the Hornets locking down DRZ, Ibaka could be the main benefactor.
Corey Joseph just banged out 38.7 FDP against the Magic in his last game so you may hear some great things about him today. The reality is that he’s more apt to hitting for about 25-28 fantasy points, and that’s not terrible, but Monday’s game was certainly a misnomer from that great matchup.
Miami Heat (-3, ML: -160) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 209.5
—————-Pace> MIA: 20 – NYK: 14
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 18 – NYK: 17
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 5 – NYK: 25
Matchup:
*Knicks won the only meeting this season (NYK: 114 – @MIA: 103)
MIA:
*5-8 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
-Dion Waiters (OUT- back)
Once again, it comes down to the decision between Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson. I have to go with my boy TJ based on $/PT ratio, and he’s always at his best when we’re not expecting much- he only posted 7.8 FDP in 25 minutes last night so rest assured no one is even thinking about him tonight. Also, Dragic is OK on the back-end of B2Bs, but nothing special…just a lot of performances in the low-30s. TJ can certainly do that for you at a cheaper price when he’s on his game.
NYK:
*25-20 ATS as the underdog
-Derrick Rose (OUT)
-Lance Thomas (OUT- hip)
On Monday, we saw the trio of Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick Rose finally all come together, have great performances and get a win in the process. However, I’m not liking this matchup for most of them, but if the Heat end up matching Luke Babbitt against Porzingis, the second-year wonder could get off to a hot start and that’s when he’s at his best.
Willy Hernangomez has strung together some solid performances of late and I really like him for this matchup against a banged-up Whiteside. He’s not expensive and has posted at least 25 FDP in each of the last four games, including Saturday’s mega 44.1 FDP performance in 36 minutes against the Spurs.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics (-8) – O/U: 208
—————-Pace> MIL: 24 – BOS: 13
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 11 – BOS: 8
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 20 – BOS: 10
Matchup:
*Celtics won the only meeting this season (BOS: 112 – @MIL: 108)
*Six of the last eight Bucks/Celtics games have gone OVER the total
MIL:
*7-11 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
-Michael Beasley (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-John Henson (OUT- thumb)
-Jabari Parker (OUT for the season-knee)
Giannis Antetokounmpo came way short of expectations last night in Charlotte but they had plenty of defensive options to slow him down. The Celtics also have some capable bodies to slow The Greek down, but he has posted 40+ FDP against them in three straight games.
Greg Monroe certainly has a fantastic matchup against this undersized Celtics frontline- the only problem is getting the minutes. It’s not much, but he has played at least 25 minutes in each of the last three games.
BOS:
*22-30-1 ATS as the favorite
*14-22 ATS at home
-Jonas Jerebko (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
No one on the Celtics has a matchup that makes me smile from ear-to-ear, but Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Al Horford all make for the best GPP options. IT2 did post 56.2 DKP/51.6 FDP against the Bucks last time out, but that was in the midst of his ridiculous run of terror throughout the entire NBA.
Jae Crowder has been on a roll of late, reaching/exceeding value in five of the last six games, but he will apparently draw a matchup with that freakish Greek…I’m over it.
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, ML: -190) – O/U: 196
—————-Pace> IND: 17 – MEM: 28
OFF Efficiency> IND: 15 – MEM: 19
DEF Efficiency> IND: 17 – MEM: 7
Matchup:
*Pacers won the only meeting this season (@IND: 102 – MEM: 92)
*Grizzlies are 4-1 (outright/ATS) vs Pacers in their last five meetings
IND:
*5-12 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
-Al Jefferson (OUT- ankle)
-Glenn Robinson III (OUT- calf)
-Rodney Stuckey (OUT- knee)
Paul George (aka Paulie Georgenuts) has been remarkable in the month of March, posting 40+ FDP in nine of the last 14 games, including at least 48+ FDP in four of the last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against the Grizz will never be mistaken for an easy one, but there’s no denying the run that he’s on right now.
Speaking of hot streaks, Jeff Teague has posted at least 38 FDP in four of the last five games and Myles Turner has gone for 30+ FDP in seven of the last eight.
Monta Ellis will continue to get big minutes with all of the injuries to the Pacers. They did, however, just sign Lance Stephenson (again) so this might be the last advantageous spot for Ellis in a while.
MEM:
*3rd game in 4 nights
*Four-game losing streak
-Marc Gasol (OUT- foot)
-JaMychal Green (QUESTIONABLE- shoulder)
-Chandler Parsons (OUT for the season- knee)
Zach Randolph will be the largest piece of chalk tonight, and that’s OK. With Marc Gasol already ruled out and JaMychal Green listed as questionable, Randolph could legitimately play close to 40 minutes in this one. I’m a risky individual, so I see the benefit of fading him in GPPs based on avoiding the masses, but this matchup against the Pacers is one of the best on the board.
Mike Conley doesn’t get much of a usage boost with Gasol out of the lineup, but he has posted at least 35 FDP in six of the last eight games.
I don’t mind Vince Carter, James Ennis III and Brandan Wright as under-the-radar options to get exposure to the short-handed Grizzlies.
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5, ML: -205) – O/U: 200.5
—————-Pace> DAL: 29 – NO: 9
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 22 – NO: 26
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 13 – NO: 6
Matchup:
*Mavericks lead season series (@DAL: 91-NO: 81), (@NO: 111-DAL: 104), (@DAL: 96-NO: 83)
*Mavericks are 7-4 (6-5 ATS) vs Pelicans in their last 11 meetings
DAL:
-Seth Curry (QUESTIONABLE- shoulder)
Harrison Barnes is the only option from the Mavs that I’ll consider tonight. Barnes is the only one playing over 35 minutes on a consistent basis, and don’t worry so much about last performance because he matched up against Andre Roberson of OKC.
NO:
3rd game in 4 nights
-DeMarcus Cousins (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-Solomon Hill (QUESTIONABLE- foot)
-Jarrett Jack (OUT- knee)
-Omer Asik (OUT- illness)
Anthony Davis will certainly be a lot more appealing without Boogie in the lineup, but it might not even matter since he’s done so well against the Mavs in recent history…
If DeMarcus Cousins does end up playing, he’ll be a nice low-owned option to take advantage of. Solomon Hill might miss this game, so if he AND Boogie are out then Dante Cunningham should get significant minutes once again- he played 39 against the Jazz last game.
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) – O/U: 209.5
—————-Pace> GS: 3 – SA: 27
OFF Efficiency> GS: 1 – SA: 6
DEF Efficiency> GS: 2 – SA: 1
Matchup:
*Spurs won both meetings this season (SA: 129 – @GS: 100), (@SA: 107 – GS: 85)
*Six of the last nine Spurs/Warriors games have gone UNDER the total
GS:
*11-4 outright on the back-end of B2Bs, 3rd game in 4 nights
-Draymond Green (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-James Michael McAdoo (PROBABLE- head)
-Kevin Durant (OUT- knee)
I would caution everyone to have a backup plan if you’re rolling with the Warriors tonight. There is a good chance that both teams could sit key players because they don’t want to show their hand in what could potentially be a preview of the Western Conference Finals.
Draymond Green did sprain his ankle last night in Houston (but did come back and play), and he could be the likely suit and tie candidate. He did post a massive game against the Spurs on Opening Night, so if he does play this would make for an interesting GPP candidate
Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are a tough sell for tonight’s matchup, given the unknown status of their availability. Curry does, however, have four 50+ DKP (three FDP) performances against the Spurs over the last three season, while Klay has one 43.8 DKP/39 FDP performance in that same span. Klay hasn’t even reached 30 points on either site against the Spurs over the last three seasons, with exception to the one mentioned above.
If the big guns sit out then Matt Barnes, JaVale McGee and Ian Clark could be the benefactors.
SA:
*15-20-1 ATS at home
-Dejounte Murray (OUT- groin)
Just as I mentioned above with the Warriors, the same applies to the Spurs as well. Gregg Popovich is the king of rest, and he invented everything that we’re seeing going on in the league right now.
If all of the rest talks are a whole bunch of blown up smoke then Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge would be the top plays from the Spurs. Stay tuned for other updates on this one…
Utah Jazz (-7, ML: -285) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 195
—————-Pace> UTA: 30 – SAC: 26
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 13 – SAC: 20
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 3 – SAC: 27
Matchup:
*Jazz lead season series (@UTA: 104-SAC: 84), (SAC: 94-@UTA: 93), (UTA: 110-@SAC: 109)
UTA:
-Gordon Hayward (WENT THROUGH SHOOTAROUND/QUESTIONABLE- quadriceps)
-Derrick Favors (OUT- knee)
Rudy Gobert has been nothing short of amazing over the last six games with an average of 52.1 DKP/50.3 FDP. He is one of the hottest players in the NBA right now, so fade at your own risk.
If Gordon Hayward misses another game, that will give a much brighter outlook to guys like Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson. There are a lot of different angles to attack the NBA’s fourth-worst defense and these guys are all capable of hitting value. Hood is particularly intriguing since he’s only $3900 on FanDuel- he played 30 minutes last game and posted 30.7 FDP.
Late word has George Hill and Raul Neto missing tonight’s game, so that could give Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack some time running the point. Not interested…
SAC:
3rd game in 4 nights
-Kosta Koufos (OUT-rest)
-Garrett Temple (OUT- rest)
-Malachi Richardson (OUT- hamstring)
-Arron Afflalo (OUT- personal)
There is never a list of great options going up against the Jazz, but I think the one guy that can have success is Buddy Hield. Prior to last game, a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, Hield posted at least 28 FDP in six of eight games.
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Clippers (-5) – O/U: 219.5
—————-Pace> WSH: 11 – LAC: 18
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 9 – LAC: 7
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 19 – LAC: 16
Matchup:
*Wizards won the only meeting this season (@WSH: 117 – LAC: 110)
WSH:
*7-9 outright on the back-end of B2Bs
*14-19-1 ATS on the road
-NO INJURIES
John Wall has posted two straight 60+ fantasy point performances in each of the last two games, but keep in mind those games were against the Cavs and Lakers- two of the most advantageous spots for point guards in the NBA. By the way, if Paul George = Paulie Georgenuts, does that mean John Wall = Johnny Wallnuts?
I’m going to like Bradley Beal a lot more if JJ Redick misses this game for the Clippers; that would put Austin Rivers into the starting lineup and Beal would eat him alive. Also, it’s not crazy to think Beal could take advantage of a hobbled Redick.
LAC:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Phoenix tomorrow
*28-20-2 ATS as the favorite
-JJ Redick (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
It’s Chris Paul Bobblehead Night at Staples Center, and I’m sure he could care less; he doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy that gets up for these kinds of things. On the other hand, CP3 does get up for these marquee matchups against proven point guards. Not many point guards have had great numbers against the Wizards this season, but if you’re going to take the chance you might as well do it when they are on the back-end of a B2B.
Blake Griffin has one of the best matchups on the board as a power forward going up against the Wizards. Unfortunately, Griffin hasn’t exceeded 30 FDP in the last four games but this is a great spot to get on the bandwagon before everyone else does.
One of the reasons for Griffin’s fading numbers is his frontcourt mate, DeAndre Jordan. It’s really only the rebounds that DJ is hogging but it still takes away from Griffin.
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