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Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets (-1.5, ML: -125) – O/U: 220.5
—————-Pace> DEN: 8 – CHA: 19
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 5 – CHA: 14
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 30 – CHA: 12
Matchup:
*Hornets won only meeting (CHA: 112 – @DEN: 102)
*The last five Hornets/Nuggets games have gone UNDER the total
DEN:
-Darrell Arthur (OUT- knee)
-Will Barton (DOUBTFUL- foot)
-Mason Plumlee (WILL PLAY- abdomen)
If Mason Plumlee is limited in any way, Nikola Jokic would get a crack at the undersized Hornets frontline mostly to himself. In the first meeting between these two teams (a week before Plumlee was acquired), Jokic dominated the Hornets for 31 points and 14 rebounds in 33 minutes.
Since Will Barton doesn’t is doubtful, that’ll put Gary Harris over 30 minutes. However, it doesn’t give him the greatest matchup against Batum so I would be cautious there. We’ll have to see how the rest of the lineup shakes prior to tip, but that could mean more usage for Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. I might side with Chandler here since he sees time at the power forward position- a spot where opposing teams have given the Hornets fits.
CHA:
*16-22 ATS at home
-Ramon Sessions (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
Kemba Walker is a point guard. Kemba Walker is a point guard going up against the Nuggets. With two weeks left in the regular season, you know the drill by now. He did post 46 DKP/42.8 FDP against them in Denver earlier this month.
Nicolas Batum gets just as good of a matchup as his backcourt mate, and you get a little more than $1000 in savings on both sites. Batum has been a little off his game lately, but this would be the contrarian way to get exposure to the Hornets backcourt. He posted 36.5 DKP/33.4 FDP against the Nuggets in the first meeting.
Cody Zeller has dropped two duds in a row, but the Nuggets have been getting toasted at pretty much every position this season. This would be the perfect spot to use him for GPPs, or if you want to get crazy then Marvin Williams or Frank Kaminsky could work too.
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors (-6, ML: -240) – O/U: 207
—————-Pace> IND: 17 – TOR: 22
OFF Efficiency> IND: 15 – TOR: 4
DEF Efficiency> IND: 18 – TOR: 8
Matchup:
*Raptors won the only meeting (@TOR: 116 – IND: 91)
*Raptors are 11-4 (9-6 ATS) vs Pacers in their last 15 meetings
IND:
*13-21-1 ATS as the underdog
*12-24-1 ATS on the road
-Al Jefferson (OUT- ankle)
-Rodney Stuckey (OUT- knee)
-Glenn Robinson III (OUT- calf)
Paul George has posted at least 48 FDP in three of his last five games but this isn’t an easy matchup at all; because of that, some of his teammates may benefit more.
Jeff Teague had an uncharacteristically bad night in Memphis on Wednesday and ended up playing only 20 minutes. Prior to that matchup against the Grizz, Teague had posted at least 37 FDP in four of five games. This is a great bounce-back spot for him against Corey Jo, who ranks 439th out of 461 NBA players in Defensive Real-Plus Minus- FYI, that’s one spot ahead of Buddy Hield.
Speaking of those in need of a bounce-back performance, Myles Turner dropped his first dud in a while…but there’s no need to freak out, it was against the Grizzlies on the back-end of a B2B. Prior to Wednesday, Turner has posted 30+ FDP in seven of eight games. Monta Ellis also needs a bounce-back for the people after last game’s dud.
Thad Young arose from the dead and posted 16 points and 13 rebounds against the Grizzlies last game. Since the injury to Al Jefferson, Young has played at least 32 minutes and another performance like this could be on the horizon.
TOR:
*21-16-1 ATS at home
-Kyle Lowry (OUT- wrist)
DeMar DeRozan is too expensive on FanDuel but I guess you can take the chance on DraftKings. The Pacers don’t have anyone to defend him so I could see this all working out well for cash games.
Corey Joseph has been in proper form over the last two games with totals of 43.5 DKP/38.7 FDP and 42.8 DKP/40.9 FDP. I am guilty of saying the first of those two performances was a fluke, but with a great matchup in front of him tonight I have no choice but to take notice. The Pacers did just cough up a massive performance to Mike Conley in their last game.
Finally, Jonas Valanciunas seems to be getting back in the groove of things. He’s posted back-to-back profitable performances in great matchups, and he did post 30.8 DKP/28.6 FDP against the Pacers 12 days ago.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, ML: ) – O/U: 219
—————-Pace> PHI: 5 – CLE: 16
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30 – CLE: 3
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 13 – CLE: 23
Matchup:
*Cavs won both meetings (CLE: 102 – @PHI: 101), (CLE: 112 – @PHI: 108)
*Cavs are 8-1 (1-8 ATS)
PHI:
*19-9 ATS in their last 28 games
*10-2 ATS in the last 12 games vs teams with a winning record
-Jahlil Okafor (OUT- knee)
-Robert Covington (OUT- knee)
-Sergio Rodriguez (OUT- hamstring)
Point guards have roasted the Cavs all year long, so TJ McConnell is a great option for cash games. However, he usually doesn’t offer much upside and that could make him a solid fade candidate in GPPs.
Dario Saric will see an uptick in usage with Robert Covington out once again. He’ll likely draw the matchup with LeBron, and I have mixed feelings about that. On one hand, LeBron has allowed some big performances this season, but on the other hand, I feel like he could turn it up at any moment- especially with the Cavs playing as bad as they possibly can at the moment.
Richaun Holmes will benefit once again from Jahlil Okafor out of the lineup. There is no way to predict when Holmes will do well or shit the bed, but at least the minutes will be something to be happy about.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Nick Stauskas and Justin Anderson are all fine value options tonight.
CLE:
*21-10 ATS on Friday nights over the last two seasons
-Kyle Korver (OUT- knee)
-Richard Jefferson (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
We may see the most inspired version of LeBron James in quite some time. The Cavs need a win badly, and the Sixers have no one to not even stop him, let alone stick a body in front of him.
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are both in play as well. These guys up against the Sixers? Um, yeah…that’s a good idea.
A very, very sneaky play could be Tristan Thompson. Centers have been toasting the Sixers on a routine basis and I bet no one will even think about using him today with all the great options at the position.
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics (-10, ML: -800) – O/U: 217.5
—————-Pace> ORL: 15 – BOS: 13
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 29 – BOS: 9
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 21 – BOS: 10
Matchup:
*Celtics won both meetings (BOS: 117 – @ORL: 87), (@BOS: 128 – ORL: 98)
——won both games by 30
ORL:
*24-30-1 ATS as the underdog
*8-17 ATS in their last 25 games
-Aaron Gordon (GTD)
-Jeff Green (QUESTIONABLE- back)
As is the case with every point guard taking on the Celtics, Elfrid Payton has the best matchup on the board going up against IT2. Payton has really struggled in this matchup over the last two seasons, so it may not be the “open-and-shut” case that it usually is.
Nikola Vucevic is the one that may have the best chance to hit value. This Celtics frontline hasn’t slowed anyone down and Vuc has posted at least 35 FDP in eight of the last nine games. If you really want to get crazy, Bismack Biyombo could be the longest of GPP dart tosses; the Celtics have won by 30 in each of their two meetings against the Magic this season so garbage time is a very real possibility.
BOS:
*14-23 ATS at home
*22-31-1 ATS as the favorite
*25-14 ATS vs Southeast Division
-NO INJURIES
Since the Celtics have crushed the Magic twice already, I can’t imagine the third time will be any different with one team at the top of the Eastern Conference standings and the other is at the bottom. Ya know, sort of a motivation thing…
Isaiah Thomas is probably the best target here, but it’s possible for the whole gang to get in on this ass kicking. Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford and Marcus Smart are all solid targets.
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat (-10, ML: -650) – O/U: 206.5
—————-Pace> NYK: 14 – MIA: 20
OFF Efficiency> NYK: 18 – MIA: 17
DEF Efficiency> NYK: 26 – MIA: 5
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (NYK: 114 – @MIA: 103), (MIA: 105 – @NYK: 88)
*Heat are 7-2 (outright/ATS) vs Knicks in their last nine games
*Six of the last nine Heat/Knicks games have gone UNDER the total
NYK:
-Derrick Rose (GTD- knee)
-Carmelo Anthony (GTD- knee)
-Lance Thomas (QUESTIONABLE- hip)
The Knicks are 10-point underdogs against the NBA’s fifth-best defense, and could possibly be without two of their leading scorers. Next…
MIA:
-Dion Waiters (OUT- back)
Get your giggles out of the way now…
OK, good. It’s all about the Johnsons tonight- James and Tyler. Vegas expects this game to be a blowout and these guys should be able to have all the fun they want with a big lead. We’ve been waiting for a big game from Tyler, but James has posted at least 38 FDP in two of the last three games.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5, ML: ) – O/U: 200
—————-Pace> DET: 23 – MIL: 24
OFF Efficiency> DET: 25 – MIL: 11
DEF Efficiency> DET: 11 – MIL: 20
Matchup:
Bucks lead season series (@DET:98-MIL: 83), (MIL: 119-@DET: 94), (@MIL: 102-DET: 89)
DET:
*Back-end of a B2B, fourth game in five nights
*14-18 ATS as the underdog
*15-22 ATS on the road
*0-7 ATS on the road vs Central Division
-Reggie Bullock (QUESTIONABLE- foot)
-Reggie Jackson (DOUBTFUL- knee)
The Pistons are in one of the worst positions on the slate tonight. With 21 other teams to choose from, you’ll be better served looking elsewhere…
MIL:
-Michael Beasley (ACTIVE- knee)
-Malcolm Brogdon (OUT)
-John Henson (OUT- thumb)
I can’t go to Giannis Antetokounmpo in this spot because he’s too expensive and the Pistons play at a snail’s pace. I like my Greek when he’s able to run up and down the court.
Greg Monroe loves taking on his former team…
Khris Middleton likes playing the Pistons too, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the last three games. In that last dud against the Pistons, Middleton only played 18 minutes because it was his third game back from injury and he was being eased back into the swing of things.
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, ML: -190) – O/U: 192
—————-Pace> DAL: 29 – MEM: 28
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 22 – MEM: 19
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 15 – MEM: 7
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (MEM: 80 – @DAL: 64), (@DAL: 104 – MEM: 100)
*Seven of the last 10 Grizzlies/Mavericks games have gone OVER the total
DAL:
-Salah Mejri (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
The Mavericks are running one of the worst rotations in the NBA for DFS purposes. Harrison Barnes gets the most minutes on a consistent basis and he’s probably the only one I would take a chance on. The Grizzlies defense has actually been one of the worst (in terms of efficiency) since the All-Star break, but I’ll let other people take the chance on Mavericks.
MEM:
-Marc Gasol (OUT- foot)
-JaMychal Green (OUT- foot)
-Andrew Harrison (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-Chandler Parsons (OUT for the season- knee)
Mike Conley just posted the second-best fantasy point total of his career (59.8 DKP/55.6 FDP) on Wednesday, nearly two months to the day after posting a career-best night against the Suns. That was certainly an unexpected outburst from Conley, especially since that game had the lowest total on Wednesday’s slate. However, Conley now takes on the team allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the point guard position this season, and it doesn’t help that teams are among the slowest in the NBA.
I was hoping Gasol and Green would both be in the lineup tonight. I’ve talked about the Mavs getting abused by bigs off the bench a few times recently, and Zach Randolph was actually one of the case studies. The last time these teams met, he toasted the Mavs for 24 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.
Vince Carter and James Ennis III are both viable for GPPs, especially with all of the injuries to the Grizzlies roster. Both guys are seeing upwards of 30 minutes lately, but it’s actually been Ennis producing more in a $/PT aspect.
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans (-10.5, ML: -700) – o/U: 205.5
—————-Pace> SAC: 26 – NO: 9
OFF Efficiency> SAC: 21 – NO: 26
DEF Efficiency> SAC: 28 – NO: 6
Matchup:
*Kings won both meetings (@SAC:102 – NO: 94), (@SAC: 105 – NO: 99)
SAC:
-Ty Lawson (OUT- rest)
-Kosta Koufos (OUT- rest)
-Arron Afflalo (OUT- personal)
-Malachi Richardson (OUT- hamstring)
Buddy Hield would probably love to drop a career-high numbers of points on the team that just drafted him in June. Given all of the injuries to the Kings lineup, Hield should be able to put up a record number of shots and that’s a good thing against this Pelicans backcourt defense.
Willie Cauley-Stein could be a sneaky GPP option while everyone is focused on Boogie. It’s not the greatest matchup for WCS, just a way to differentiate yourself in large tournaments.
Darren Collison will get a ton of minutes without Ty Lawson in the way. He hasn’t been in the greatest form of late but nearly 40 minutes should do the trick.
NO:
-Alexis Ajinca (QUESTIONABLE- hip)
-Jarrett Jack (OUT- knee)
-Omer Asik (OUT- illness)
It would be an incredibly difficult to convince you not to play DeMarcus Cousins against his former team…Ya know, the one that drove him (even more) batshit crazy? Yeah, you all know that narrative and the motivation he’ll have to do well tonight. The only reason not to roster Boogie is to avoid an all-time high ownership level.
Anthony Davis could very well be an amazed bystander in the Boogie show tonight, but he’s also a very interesting GPP option…ya know, if you’re a narrative hater.
If the Boogie show gets wild, there’s a good chance that Jrue Holiday will be racking up the assists. There hasn’t been much hoopla over Holiday lately but he’s quietly averaged 37.1 DKP/35.2 FDP over the last seven games. Tim Frazier
Washington Wizards @ Utah Jazz (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 206.5
—————-Pace> WSH: 11 – UTA: 30
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 8 – UTA: 13
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 19 – UTA: 3
Matchup:
*Jazz won the only meeting (UTA: 102 – @WSH: 92)
WSH:
-NO INJURIES
John Wall has posted three straight games with at least 60 fantasy points- a streak from him that we have not seen in quite some time. Even though he goes up against the Jazz, the matchup gets a slight upgrade with George Hill out; that will put Wall up against the likes of Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack. I have even more confidence in Wall since his shot has been on point these last three games, shooting 44-for-69 from the field over that span.
UTA:
*15-22 ATS at home
-George Hill (OUT- groin)
-Derrick Favors (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Raul Neto (QUESTIONABLE- groin)
Rudy Gobert has been one of the best players in the NBA over the last few weeks. He wasn’t needed much in their last game against the Kings, but prior to that Gobert had exceeded salary-based expectations in four of five games. The Wizards haven’t been that resistant against opposing centers so I can see this one working out well too.
When George Hill is out of the lineup, Gordon Hayward typically becomes the primary ball-handler for the Jazz. He’s not going to bring the ball up the court each time but you’ll see some upticks in his stats, especially tonight in a great matchup in an up-tempo setting with the Wizards. Rodney Hood is still absurdly cheap on FanDuel, and he’ll get a slight boost here as well. Joe Ingles isn’t as cheap but he can work.
Joe Johnson might be my favorite play tonight since he’ll get matched up with Markieff Morris, one of the laziest defenders in NBA history. You’ll find Iso Joe as a small forward on FanDuel, but he’s been playing the four with Derrick Favors on the shelf.
San Antonio Spurs (-1, ML: -115) @ Oklahoma City Thunder – O/U: 208.5
—————-Pace> SA: 27 – OKC: 7
OFF Efficiency> SA: 7 – OKC: 16
DEF Efficiency> SA: 1 – OKC: 9
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (@SA: 108 – OKC: 94), (@OKC: 102 – SA: 92)
SA:
*20-15-2 ATS on the road
-Dejounte Murray (OUT- groin)
I’m not big on Kawhi Leonard since he’ll be matched up with Andre Roberson, but will be more interested in LaMarcus Aldridge, however. The guy has just been so damn consistent.
OKC:
*23-13-1 ATS at home
-NO INJURIES
Every time you fade Russell Westbrook, your fingernails are guaranteed to be shorter by the end of the night- it’s science. I’m not sure what stance I’m going to take on the situation yet, but the odds of having him in my lineup are pretty good.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5, ML: ) – O/U: 231
—————-Pace> HOU: 3 – GS: 4
OFF Efficiency> HOU: 2 – GS: 1
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 16 – GS: 2
Matchup:
*Warriors lead season series (HOU: 132-@GS: 127), (GS: 125-@HOU: 108), (GS: 113-@HOU: 106)
HOU:
*Back-end of a B2B, third game in four nights
-James Harden (OUT
-Ryan Anderson (OUT- ankle)
-Nene Hilario (OUT- rest)
-Montrezl Harrell (PROBABLE- personal)
James Harden was somewhat affected by that nagging wrist injury so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Rockets be cautious with him on the back-end of a B2B. Now that doesn’t necessarily mean they will sit Harden, but it could certainly mean reduced minutes. Proceed with caution…
If the above is true with Harden, that will pave the way to major value with the rest of the Rockets- Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverley and Trevor Ariza would be the main candidates. Unfortunately, this game tips off more than three hours after lineup lock so gather as much info on the situation as you can.
Montrezl Harrell is interesting here at $3000 DK/$3900 FD, especially since Nene Hilario will be resting tonight. Harrell missed the Rockets’ last two games due to the birth of his child, so he’ll have the baby narrative and lot more stamina than the rest of his teammates who will be playing their third game in four nights.
GS:
-Kevin Durant (OUT- knee)
-Kevin Looney (QUESTIONABLE- hip)
Stephen Curry will draw the matchup with Patrick Beverley, but it might not be a terrible idea to take a chance there since Damian Lillard did well against the Rockets’ best defender last night and the game was last night, meaning they won’t have a full tank tonight.
Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will be hot commodities tonight, and for good reason. They have two of the best matchups on the board, and hitting value shouldn’t be an issue.
Matt Barnes has popped up on the Domination Station and Andre Iguodala will work in this spot too.
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