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Walsh’s Way: NBA Daily Fantasy Notes and Vegas Betting Trends – Thursday, March 30th

Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

No podcast today, we’ll be back tomorrow…and Monday for MLB!

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Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons (-6, ML: -240) – O/U: 213

—————-Pace> BKN: 1   – DET: 23
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 27 – DET: 25
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 25 – DET: 11

Matchup:

*Nets have won both meetings (@BKN: 109 – DET: 101), (@BKN: 98 – DET: 96)
*Nets have covered seven of their last nine meetings with the Pistons

BKN:

*37-33-1 ATS as the underdog
*20-15-1 ATS on the road

-Quincy Acy (OUT- ankle)
-Joe Harris (OUT- shoulder)

Brook Lopez is coming off his best post-All-Star break performance and has now scored at least 23 real points in eight of the last 10 games. BroLo has been excellent against the Pistons this season, and a lot of that has to do with the fact he added the three-point shot to his arsenal. There’s no way Drummond can defend him beyond the arc- something the Nets have figured out and used to their advantage.

Jeremy Lin has shown everyone what the Nets had been missing for most of this season, with plentiful stat lines and making his teammates better. Tonight, he gets a matchup that point guards have been able to take advantage of lately; Lin missed the Pistons matchup last week, but Spencer Dinwiddie was able to post 29.5 DKP/28.6 FDP filling in for him.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson doesn’t have the easiest matchup but he has been able to post 30+ fantasy points in four straight games, all while playing no more than 25 minutes in each game.

DET:

*23-18 ATS as the favorite
*22-16 ATS at home (14-6 in their last 20)

-Reggie Jackson (OUT- knee)
-Reggie Bullock (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)

I loves me some Pistons tonight…and yes, even against my own boys. For starters, I’d be completely shocked if the Nets swept a season series from any team that isn’t the Suns- which they did. Second, the Pistons are incredibly desperate for a win and their bad luck has to start trending the other way. Lastly, the Nets have been one of the most profitable teams to attack in DFS all season- why stop now?

Andre Drummond comes at more of a discount on FanDuel ($7500) than DraftKings ($8000) and he gets one of the most favorable matchups on the board. He has averaged 37.4 DKP/36 FDP against the Nets in nine games over the last three seasons, with five of those games going for at least 40+ fantasy points on both sites. The Nets allow the second-most rebounds per game in the NBA this season, and Drummond has grabbed at least 13 of them in 12 of the last 13 games.

With Reggie Jackson already ruled out, that gives Ish Smith another outlook of 30+ minutes. He took advantage of the same matchup against the Nets last week, in what amounted to just under 39 fantasy points on both sites.

Tobias Harris is from New York, and he had posted monster numbers this season against the teams that reside there…until Monday, when the Knicks held him to 20 fantasy points and change on both sites. I’ll give Tobias a pass on that subpar performance, but at least he’s toasted the Nets in both meetings this season…

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope does much better in these up-tempo settings, which is exactly what he’ll see tonight. KCP has crushed the Nets in both meetings this season for 34.2 DKP/31.4 FDP and 29.5 DKP/27.3 FDP.


Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5, ML: -215) @ Chicago Bulls – O/U: 210

—————-Pace> CLE: 16 – CHI: 21
OFF Efficiency>   CLE: 3   – CHI: 20
DEF Efficiency>  CLE: 23 – CHI: 14

Matchup:

*Bulls have won all three meetings (@CHI: 111-CLE: 105), (CHI: 106-@CLE: 94), (CHI: 117-@CLE: 99)
*Bulls have covered 12 of their last 17 meetings with the Cavaliers

CLE:

*28-36-2 ATS as the favorite
*11-24-2 ATS on the road
*13-22 ATS vs teams with a losing record
*1-9 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in a game over the last two seasons

-Richard Jefferson (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Kyle Korver (OUT- foot)

The $/PT production hasn’t been there too often for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving since Kevin Love returned to the Cavs lineup. LeBron has been the most successful in the five games over this span, but he’s only exceeded salary-based expectations once (3/24 @ CHA: 65.2 DKP/61.3 FDP); Kyrie only exceeded them once as well (3/19 @ LAL: 54.5 DKP/49.9 FDP).

Love could be an interesting GPP option tonight, and we have seen plenty of power forwards toast the Bulls since Taj Gibson moved on to OKC. The sneaky part here is that Love is starting to get his full complement of minutes back- he played 29 against the Hornets, 33 against the Wizards and then only 27 against the Spurs in what turned out to be a massive blowout.

CHI:

*22-18 ATS as the underdog
*16-20-1 ATS at home

-Cristiano Felicio (PROBABLE- back)

The Cavs defense has fallen off a cliff and Jimmy Butler should be able to take full advantage of this. Yes, the price tag has risen to extreme levels ($10K on both sites) but I think that’ll keep his ownership down a bit. Also, Butler’s numbers have been off the charts since D-Wade played his last game and he’s showed up each time against the Cavs this season…

Rajon Rondo will have a great matchup going against Kyrie, and he’s excelled twice in this spot already. In the first meeting, Rondo posted a triple-double on the way to 57 DKP/50 FDP in 36 minutes and then followed that up with 28.5 DKP/27.9 FDP in 25 minutes the next time. He is one of the more volatile players in the NBA, but everything should be fine since the Bulls had three full days of rest before tonight’s game; most of Rondo’s duds come in B2Bs and really bad matchups- certainly not the case here.

Nikola Mirotic has two monster performances over the last three games, and it appears like Fred Hoiberg is getting more comfortable with him lately. The encouraging sign is that Mirotic’s minutes have gone up incrementally each time out against the Cavs this season, and subsequently the fantasy points as well.


Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-10.5, ML: -700) – O/U: 220.5

—————-Pace> LAL: 6   – MIN: 25
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 23 – MIN: 10
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 30 – MIN: 24

Matchup:

*Teams split season series (@MIN: 125 – LAL: 99), (@LAL: 130 – MIN: 119 in OT)
*Lakers have covered six of their last nine meetings with the Timberwolves
*Seven of the last nine Lakers/Timberwolves games have gone OVER the total

LAL:

*28-35-1 ATS as the underdog
*16-21 ATS on the road
*19-33 ATS vs Northwest Division over the last three seasons
*9-19 ATS in March over the last two seasons

-Brandon Ingram (OUT- knee)

D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson have been getting force-fed minutes as the Lakers come down the stretch, so that part is appealing. I do worry somewhat about the T-Wolves being such massive favorites because they are rarely favored…let alone by double-digits. All in all, I’ve been preaching “quantity over quality” these last couple of weeks and this is the exact scenario that I’m talking about.

Julius Randle is another guy that has been getting more minutes and he does have a great matchup. I feel like you can find better $/PT guys at the power forward position tonight, but he has shown that he can go off for a huge game every now and again. It’s not a bad idea to have him in a couple spots if you’re multi-entering.

Larry Nance Jr has gotten solid minutes over the last three games, including 35 against these same Timberwolves last week. Most of that was matchup-based (and overtime) but if Luke Walton goes the same route tonight I feel like you can take advantage of that with lower ownership. LNJ isn’t a great fantasy point/min player, but if he gets more time on the court he can definitely reap a great ROI on the $4600 DK/$4100 FD price tag.

MIN:

*10-14 ATS as the favorite
*15-22 ATS at home
*11-20 ATS vs teams with a losing record

-Nemanja Bjelica (OUT for season- foot)
-Zach LaVine (OUT for season- knee)

Karl-Anthony Towns, Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins all posted massive numbers against the Lakers last week and they’ll be looking to do the same tonight. Surprisingly, Wiggins is the cheapest of these three on both sites, and to say he enjoys playing the Lakers would be understatement of the year. He’s all over the Domination Station, and for good reason…

Gorgui Dieng is a much better option on FanDuel at $5200 ($5900 on DraftKings) and he’s posted 30+ FDP in three straight games while playing at least 35 minutes each time out. Dieng can abuse this Lakers frontline all night so this is a no-brainer for me.

Kris Dunn is finally starting to show why the T-Wolves used the fifth-overall pick on him in last year’s draft. He’s posted an average of 29.3 DKP/28.5 FDP over the last three games and offers a ton of value at his $3900 price tag on both sites.


Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5, ML: -575) @ Phoenix Suns – O/U: 220

—————-Pace> LAC: 18 –  PHX: 2
OFF Efficiency>   LAC: 6   – PHX: 24
DEF Efficiency>  LAC: 17 – PHX: 27

Matchup:

*Clippers won all three meetings (@LAC: 116-PHX: 98), (@LAC: 109-PHX: 98), (LAC: 124-PHX: 114)
*Clippers are 9-2 (7-4 ATS) vs the Suns in their last 11 meetings
*Seven of the last 11 Clippers/Suns games have gone OVER the total

LAC:

*8-10 on the back-end of B2Bs
*21-17-1 ATS on the road

-Austin Rivers (OUT- hamstring)

The Clippers are still fighting to get that #4 seed in the Western Conference so I don’t see any of their players resting tonight. I do, however, expect the Clippers to jump out to a massive lead and have this game wrapped up quickly (even on the back-end of a B2B). The Suns have gotten hammered at the onset of most games (by subpar teams) and usually chip away later on when their opponents put the B team in and let it ride on auto-pilot.

It goes without saying that Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have some of the best matchups on the board. None of them come at a discount, so I would leave them aside for GPP purposes only, but you can still get your Clippers exposure in other ways.

I’ve heard a lot of talk about JJ Redick today, but you have to remember that he was questionable going into last night’s game and the Clippers could be cautious here. In any event, Jamal Crawford should see about 25 minutes in this game and I prefer him over Redick tonight, especially if the hype continues to grow throughout the day. Crawford has killed plenty of people’s lineups (including mine) this season but he will face little-to-no resistance against an eight-man squad.

PHX:

*16-20 ATS at home

-Devin Booker (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-Leandro Barbosa (QUESTIONABLE- hamstring)
-Dragan Bender (OUT- ankle)
-Eric Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler, Brandon Knight (OUT- rest)

If Devin Booker sits out, that’ll make TJ Warren and Tyler Ulis exceptions to the “quantity over quality” theory once again. These guys are going to play absurd minutes, and if all goes according to plan, they’ll get a good portion of those absurd minutes against the Clippers B team in a scrimmage-like setting.

Alex Len, Alan Williams and Marquese Chriss can also be thrown into the QOQ theory. I don’t like any of their individual matchups, but if the Clippers B team gets meaningful minutes things will be a lot easier for them.


Houston Rockets (-2, ML: -115) @ Portland Trail Blazers – O/U: 228.5

—————-Pace> HOU: 3   – POR: 12
OFF Efficiency>  HOU: 2   – POR: 12
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 16 – POR: 22

Matchup:

*Rockets have won both meetings (@HOU: 126 – POR: 109), (HOU: 130 – @POR: 114)
*Seven of the last nine Rockets/Trail Blazers games have gone OVER the total

HOU:

*24-12 ATS on the road
*25-11 ATS vs teams with a losing record

-Ryan Anderson (OUT- ankle)
-Montrezl Harrell (OUT- personal)

I’m fully aware that James Harden doesn’t have to do as much heavy lifting for the Rockets nowadays, but it’s tough to ignore his recent history against the Blazers. Fading Harden is always a nail-biting experience, and even more so on a five-game slate. What to do…..what to do? He has missed salary-based expectations in two straight games, but keep in mind, that was against the Warriors (2nd in defensive efficiency) and Thunder (9th in defensive efficiency)- the Blazers are 22nd.

This is the perfect setting for Lou Williams and Eric Gordon. I keep seeing a lot of love for Sweet Lou across the industry, so it might not be the worst idea to dupe the masses with E-Gordon in a couple GPP lineups.

Don’t look now, but Trevor Ariza has posted two straight massive performances (35 DKP/34.3 FDP in 41 minutes and 50.5 DKP/46.2 FDP in 37 minutes) with Ryan Anderson out of the lineup. He’s been solid against the Blazers in recent memory, and now he’ll have added benefits.

POR:

-Ed Davis (OUT for the season- shoulder)
-Festus Ezeli (OUT for the season- knee)

Damian Lillard has been on a roll lately, but he’ll draw one of the toughest matchups on the board against Patrick Beverley- a scenario that hasn’t played out well in recent history…

CJ McCollum is a better option than Lillard tonight, mainly because he’ll draw the matchup with Harden and he comes at a significantly cheaper price. Shooting guards have been crushing the Rockets and I see another instance of this happening. There is one minor drawback to this matchup, though- McCollum sees a lot of time with the second unit, but so does Beverley, and that means he’ll draw that tough matchup for a couple minutes of two rotations. Overall, the matchup with Harden should be enough to at least get him to value.

You can tell that it wasn’t just another game for Jusuf Nurkic against the Nuggets on Tuesday; he finished with 33 points, 16 rebounds, three blocks and two assists- good for 62 DKP/58.2 FDP. The Rockets are allowing the most PPG inside the paint this season so I can see Nurkic having yet another field day.


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