The green flag is back in the air as we head down to sunny California this week. The DFS Army is coming off an AMAZING week at Phoenix where we almost hit the optimal line up in the article. As we talked about in mid-week article, California is one of the funnest tracks on the circuit and with the way qualifying played out, I think we can find a real edge this week. Final practice had lots of spins though, so things could get wild! I still have some questions I have to investigate, so it would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
So let’s start by addressing the elephants in the room. On Friday, Jimmie, Joey and Trevor Bayne did not take a qualifying time – which means they will start 37th, 35th and 36th respectively. It super safe to say that no matter what practice says and what the track history says, that is your chalk for the weekend. I want to start by looking into those three.
First up, starting 37th, is the great Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has an undeniable track record here with and average running position of 6th and a handful of wins to boot. That said – if you are going to fade anyone of these three, Johnson’s your guy in my opinion. He will be very chalky as more casual money will see Johnson starting at the back at a track where his statistics are remarkable. But more importantly – I am not convinced he is going to perform all that well. So far this season the A-Camp at Hendrick Motorsports (Johnson and Earnhardt Jr.) just haven’t shown any speed. Combine that with his abysmal practice sessions and his backup car…I’m comfortable with using less Johnson then normal. Now keep in mind he doesn’t have to do much to hit value, so even if he finishes 15th, which is probably his floor barring any accidents, he will still score somewhere in the 50s. He is probably a cash game lock, but think about lowering your exposure in GPPs just based on how highly owned he will go.
Now onto Bayne and Logano…I am happy to play them at field or higher ownership. Joey has never really dominated at California, but he is a consistent enough driver with a good enough car to compete for a win. If he stays out of trouble, which should be easy to do on this big race track, he will find himself in the top 10 by half way.
Bayne has pretty pedestrian stats at California and hasn’t shown much in practice, but at $7,200 at 36th – he’s gonna be hard to ignore. He is steering a Ford, and the Fords have all been spectacular this year. He is a top 20 guy this weekend which should be more than enough to get him in the optimal lineup.
Top Plays
Joey and Jimmie – All very reasonably plays. Jimmie is my least favorite of the “big three”, but is probably still a top five play overall this week. This stack will be super chalky. Either embrace the chalk and try to find the other three pieces, or fade and pray, baby!
Martin Truex Jr. – Rolling off fourth doesn’t seem very attractive, but this is a big unpredictable race where multiple drivers can lead – I think Martin can click off a ton of fast laps, and even lead a handful before competing for a win at the end of the day. He had the fastest car in final practice and so far this season has shown he is the most competitive Toyota. A small note, Martin has had some really bad luck at this track in the past, so I am okay with riding that narrative and avoiding him – but I think a good car tends to transcend luck, especially at Califnoria.
Kyle Larson – Larson has been knocking on the door all season, and the script seems to be set for him to win this race. This a track that suits his style perfectly and he has competed for a win here before (back when his cars weren’t among the fastest on the track). If anyone is going to dominate this race, I think it will be him. As I said in the early article this week, he needs to keep it off the wall all race, which could be a tall order, but I think he is up for the challenge. He is my pick to win this week.
Chase Elliott – I will say it again…CHASE IS GOING TO WIN A RACE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. He has too much talent and his cars are too good not to. Along with Truex Jr, he had the fastest car in final practice and secured a 6th in his first go round at this race track last year. He is starting 13th which provides a bit of upside considering I think he will be a top 5 guy and lead laps again this week.
It’s hard to get a read on the top tier guys this week since this track is so tumultuous, but Harvick and Kenseth are both guys that got faster as practice progressed. Harvick is starting a little too high for my liking (7th) but he could be a dominator candidate. He has an unusual history of finding fast laps here.
Kenseth has been miserable all season, but has a decent track record here and will probably go under-owned. Allow your own process to dictate what to do with these guys, but I think they make for good pivots.
Fades
No obvious fades this week, allow your own process to dictate.
Value
Bayne – See above.
Erik Jones – Erik put up some screaming laps in second practice, but fell behind a bit in final practice (4th in single lap and 10 lap speed). He has only seen this track twice before in his career, but he managed a top 15 both times. He has a fast car and this forgiving race track too rookie drivers. At $7700 – he is not just a value play, he’s a top play.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney is creeping into a non-value play candidate, but I am going to keep him down here this week anyways. He struggled in qualifying and will be rolling off 19th, but he looked very strong in practice. His cars have been good this year and his poor performance last year, along with his inflated price, could push him underowned this week.
Aric Almirola – As long as Almirola keeps stinking at qualifying, I’m going to keep playing him. He hasn’t been all that impressive this season, but his place differential has been keeping him relevant. In races where he hasn’t crashed here since 2012, his worst finish is 25th, which would give him a 25 point floor. Not bad for $6500 considering I think he could compete for a top 20 giving his moderately impressive final practice.
So there you have it, a shorter article this week because I think the strategy is pretty clear cut with Jimmie, Joey and Trevor starting at the back. That stack will be very chalky so find ways to get off the chalk if you are going for a GPP win. As always my research is just getting started so I will be updating my thoughts on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good look this week, and let’s make some cash.