NHL Breakaway Lineup Strategy Tips for FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Army Mar 8

Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL!  You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong.  Let’s fire up some conversation!

I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates.  If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com.  We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.

NHL RECAP

Since I do larger breakdowns on YouTube (thanks for the likes and subs, by the way), it’s been awhile since I’ve given you a standard write-up.  The past week has been great for both me, personally, and the DFS Army when it comes to NHL.  We have tons of new VIPs taking shots at NHL and falling in love with the game.  The coaching is outstanding because we sort of divide and conquer.  I am the cash game guy and another great player Shadysmix leans more to GPPs.

We also have at least a half dozen regulars now that contribute with both opinions and deeper questions, too.  This atmosphere fosters a groupthink, if you will, that has led to a lot of DFS NHL success.  It’s a lot of fun bringing this content to you, but at some point you just have to jump into our VIP program if you want more depth to the coverage.  We simply don’t have the time to go too deep out here in the bloggosphere.  We save that for our membership on the inside.

Target NHL Oh-ffenses for Tonight

Pittsbugh Penguins – With a whopping 6.5 o/u on this game, Vegas sees goals coming.  The Pens are the most powerful offense on the slate if you look at season long numbers.  However, if you look at just the past 4 weeks, you find they have slumped a bit.  Bring in Winnipeg, who has given up the 6th most fantasy points over the same 4 week period though, and you have a recipe for some Pens to get right tonight.  The hard part will be figuring out where the production will come from.

Boston Bruins – Vegas also loves Boston tonight.  Over that 4 week period I just mentioned, BOS ranks 3rd in fantasy points scored.  They are running really well right now.  Detroit is a middle of the road team and is on the back end of a road back-to-back, so that adds a little gasoline to the Bruins fire.  There is more value on this side of the slate.  I wouldn’t recommend fading Pittsburgh, but if money gets tight, it’s best spent over here.

Winnipeg Jets – The other side to the Pittsburgh 6.5 total lives right here.  Lots of value in this team.  They’ve been running well of late, too.  4th in fantasy points scored over the last month, and they are pretty cheap.  Their youth leads to some random inconsistencies, but they have firepower.  Pittsburgh is also falling back into it’s older ways of allowing points against after a decent stretch of solid defense.  That trend gives us a little more confidence in the Jets young players.

Ottawa Senators – The Sens draw the Stars in what should give them a little more giddy-up than normal.  The Stars play up and down and fast.  The Stars also give away points.  The Sens are tonight’s beneficiary.  No one plays the Senators heavily, so it’s a nice place to get a little off the beaten path but still stay in a very nice spot to target.  One-offs here rule the day, but there are some VERY nice value plays here for cash games.

Dallas Stars – The Stars might give up points, but they also get going north and score points, too.  While the Senators don’t typically give points away, they might be caught up in the pace of this one and allow some Stars to hit value.  I believe a lot of Stars are a tad overpriced in this one, especially on FanDuel, but taking some cheaper ones is never a bad way to go.  Very secondary offense for me.

Detroit Red Wings – Almost a complete fade.  However, this is your contrarian stack on a 3 game slate if you want to live dangerously.  Zetterberg and Nyquist likely have hands in the damage if Rask implodes or this game shoots out.

If you like what you are reading both here and on our site, you might be a VIP in the making.  As a contributor and coach I may specialize in research and eliminating the growth curve for beginners, but we have coaches in our community for the experts, too.  I serve to cut your time down by doing that early grunt work for you.  Then, our experts and pros take over to help you max out your potential no matter what it is.

Sign up at dfsarmy.com and use my code CHOP.  Using that code entitles you to a lifetime, grandfathered discount of 20% for as long as you stay a member ($25 down to $20 isn’t something to scoff at).  I’m going to add that I was told our subscriptions are going up so we can add more sports to our already mind-blowing Domination Station optimizer.  This optimizer popped not one, but TWO $11,000 winners in NBA last month!  If you get in now, that $20/mo stays put even when prices go up.  If not, well, I can’t help you other than to offer you 20% off the new price.  Don’t miss out!

All DFS sports are covered, and the real value is in our real-time coaching from our VIP Only slack chat forum.  Both coaches and experienced regulars put ego aside (mostly, I mean it is sports) to develop you into a competitive, winning player.  Add in our stats spreadsheets, elite lineup optimizer and player picks and you’ve found one-stop-shopping for not only NHL lineups, but all of DFS.  Give us a look!

Stacking Pads (Goalies)

Tukka Rask – This is really the only option for me tonight.  Rask isn’t exactly safe, either, but the -250 coming from Vegas has such overwhelming support I will just roll it out.  I don’t get cute with goalies in NHL.  If you saw my video yesterday, I told you Anderson and Talbot were “acceptable” alternatives to Bobrovsky, but if you did that in spite of the “don’t get cute” warning, you got punished hard and failed to cash.  It didn’t help that The Bob posted yet another shutout on top of it all.  Hopefully, that was a lesson learned to you.  DON’T GET CUTE WITH GOALIES!  Yet a bunch of players still will, as evidenced by Bob only being 46% owned in cash games last night.  Fine……their loss.  Thanks for the donation, dumbasses.

DFS NHL Value Plays of the Night

Yes, we’ll dive into some player picks for you.  But, we don’t have time to dig into all of them (there are about 15 easy ones).  If you want to learn the method to the madness, read my Cash Game Strategies and follow those tips.

Stephen Johns (DAL D2) – Cheap as hell on both sites, Johns is a relatively active Dman.  When it comes to cheap defense, you are looking for a floor here.  Shots on goal and blocked shots are your friend.  Add them up for a new stat I personally made up called SBk (SOG + Blk).  I’m looking for over 30 in the past 10 games.  (This is more beneficial on DraftKings than FanDuel for what it’s worth.)  Johns has 52 and gives you enough activity without scoring points that you can easily live with him and use the savings to upgrade.  It doesn’t hurt that Dallas is in a nice spot tonight.  It’s always nice to find deep value on the short slates where it can be very scarce at times.

Mathieu Perreault (WPG2 – PP1) – Another cheapy that has been playing very consistently lately.  Perreault has been averaging around 2.25X when it comes to points/1000 on FD, which is about right what we need in cash, and has been doing so for over a month.  He is averaging about 0.75 pts/1000 on DK, which is more than the 0.6 we look for.  Definite value play in a volatile as hell sport.  Add in how hot WPG has been running and that they are facing PIT in a 6.5 o/u game and you have a sweet value play with some upside for goals and assists.

Erik Karlsson (OTT D1 – PP1) – Erik serves on both the top D line and the top PP unit.  He logs minutes like mad, and he shoots the freakin puck!  35 SOG in the last 10 games is a ton for a blue-liner.  He also sees time on the kill with 30 Blks in the same 10 games.  On DK, that gives a hard floor of 3.5 points…..or half his salary.  When you look for 0.6 in cash games, you are 90% of the way there and he hasn’t contributed to any goals yet.  At more than a point per game player, he will contribute with that kind of volume.  12 points in 10 games sort of says it all.  He’s matchup proof right now at this price, AND he draws the generous Dallas Stars.

Patrice Bergeron (BOS1 – PP1) – Let’s look at “value” a little differently for this one.  When looking at average fantasy points scored on FD for the past 4 weeks, Patrice ranks 4th of all players on tonight’s slate.  However, he has the 9th most expensive non-goalie salary.  That’s value!  Another point per game player that pumps shots on goal (43 over the last 10 games), Bergeron is the centerpiece of the Bruins offense.  Truly poor games are very rare for him.  I would roster him over Sidney Crosby tonight without hesitation.

Of course, there are others we could talk about like Klingberg, Phaneuf, Zetterberg, or Laine, but why waste your time.  If you follow me long enough and read my content on dfsarmy.com, you will pick up on my mindset when it comes to hunting value and researching slates.

The Smelly Mitt