Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
MAR 2 – Wow…last night blew chunks for me. I’m burning the game tape. The right games didn’t pan out and the mediocre game I cited on the video as a potential explosion did just that. I didn’t have enough of the NYI/DAL game either. Don’t panic. You don’t need to re-evaluate your life. It was simply a bad day. The process has proven correct. Stick with it.
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – It starts and ends here tonight in terms of primary offenses to target. First, the Blackhawks are hot. White hot. 9-1 in their last 10 and winners of their last 5, they have upped both their offense and their defense as they do what they do…flip the switch in preparation for the postseason. You don’t want to be in their way right now. Sorry, Isles fans. You in deep doo doo.
All the metrics point up for CHI. Season SOG has gone from ranked 13th on the season to 1st over the last month. They have gone from 10th on the season in fantasy points scored to 1st in the last month. The defense has gone from 13th in fantasy points allowed on the season to 23rd, meaning they are getting stingier on defense. Look at NYI for a second. They allow fantasy points. Ranked 5th in terms of giving them up on both the season and the last month, nothing has changed in that department. The last team you want to give points too is CHI right now. Add in the fact that the last 10 meetings between the teams has seen a 8-1-1 record from CHI and you see utter domination. CHI is where you start tonight when building your lineup, unless you are intentionally fading them in GPPs.
Secondary Options
Normally, I give you a few primary teams to pick from. Today, I can’t. I usually give you a few “secondary” options, too. Today, I can’t. While there are no other primary options, there are too many secondary options. I will try to narrow some down, but it’s going to be more shotgun style than organized.
Pittsburgh is always in play, but I’m not a fan tonight. They are priced like the most powerful offense in the league, but they aren’t playing like it again. SOG are down as are FPts scored. The prices don’t reflect this, so I’m largely off them when facing a mediocre team in TB that actually has played a bit better of late.
Speaking of TB, you could give a couple a look. 7-1-2 in their last 10 and winners of two straight. PIT has given fantasy points liberally over the season, but lately PIT has been on lockdown.
Arizona is on the back end of a back to back road trip and is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Add in they allow the 2nd most SOG and the 2nd most FPts on the year and over the last 4 weeks and you can call them a target. You’d think that would give a green light to Carolina, but not so fast. The Hurricanes have lost 3 straight on their own, and sport a 2-5-3 record on their last 10 games. They don’t score a ton consistently and that makes me take a little pause even against a league worst team we love to target. CAR does, however, own the matchup advantage with the 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings with the Yotes. I want to like CAR, but can’t quite call them a team to stack up.
STL and WPG is interesting. STL might have given up on their management already. Not so much the new coach, but the GM. Trading Shattenkirk might have been necessary, but it doesn’t send a good message to the team when you admit you aren’t contending for anything. I want to target that attitude with some Jets, and thought I would leading into today. However, it almost looks reversed on paper. It’s the Jets giving up the points lately (top 6 on season and league worst past month). They are shooting the puck a bit better, and they have hella young talent, but they have been rather mediocre going back quite a while now. This game has a ton of doubt in it from that vantage point. I no longer like it other than watching it on my tv tonight as a fan. I won’t have any action. By the way, STL has lost 4 straight and WPG has lost their last 2. So, there’s not a lot of recency to look at there, either.
We talked about CHI. I don’t mind looking at some Islanders. They have a top 10 offense themselves. They happen to be on their own back-to-back road games, though. If CHI hadn’t shown they’ve stepped up the defense lately, I’d be a lot higher on NYI tonight. But, I don’t know that I can completely stay away, either.
DET is not on my radar of skaters. Calgary is. Winners of their last 5, the only thing really holding me back is the lack of scoring. There have been a lot of 2-1 type games here. In terms of fantasy, you can’t go too crazy with them until they move off their rankings or play an even worse team. When it comes to scoring fantasy points, CGY ranks 21st on the season and 20th on the past month. That’s not a big enough move to mean much yet, but the winning 5 straight and having a 7-2-1 record recently does stir some headlines. Ahhh, the difference between real and fantasy rears it’s head.
Toronto is playing it’s 3rd in 4 on the road and the back half of the B2B like ARI tonight. They draw the brutal Anaheim Ducks, too. ANA doesn’t tend to lose in their house. However, you can’t deny an 8-2 head to head matchup record over their last 10 meetings with the Ducks. You also can’t ignore the Leafs shoot the hell out of the puck, and that hasn’t slowed down at all. Also, they score points. And, that hasn’t slowed, either. It’s just aggravating to be a fan and watch them give out more points than they bring in. That leads to a ton of shootouts, though, and is worthy of constant attention when it comes to DFS NHL.
Anaheim has stepped it up a bit recently, too. SOG are up from 24th on the season to 17th. So, the activity is coming up perhaps. This hasn’t quite translated into production, but signs are there. Tonight is intriguing from the standpoint of facing a very loosey goosey team in the Leafs that might be quite tired and very far from home. Add in the fact this game is scheduled to be backup goalie vs backup goalie and you might get even more excited about both sides of this one. If you took all your skaters from CHI, NYI, TOR, and ANA, you might be pleased with your night after the hammer game drops.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Corey Crawford – Limited options tonight, but Crawford tops the list in my book. I don’t need a Vegas line to love the 9-1 record and 5 consecutive wins by CHI no matter who’s in net. Again, the 8-1-1 matchup record also screams CHI is safe. Look a little deeper at Crawford’s last 7 games and you find a 6-1 record, too. My concern is the goals he’s giving up. No fewer than 2 but no more than 3 in all those games. I’d say your upside is limited here, but the safety is there for cash goalies. (Also, seeing those goals against makes me like NYI a bit more…..it’s not as if they should get shutout.)
2- Brian Elliott – Hold onto your hat, I’m popping a Brian Elliott call. But, before you think I’m stupid, let’s remember CGY is hot. Winners of 7 in their last 10 and 5 in a row, they are pretty safe when facing a below average team in DET. They carry a low Vegas total of 5, too. Now, looking at Elliott specifically we find he is quietly 4-1 in his last 5. He gave up more than 2 goals just once in a 6-5 game they won vs NSH a couple weeks ago. In fact, based on the goals against, he might be a better bet than Crawford.
Secondary Options
The above two are honestly your best bets. I don’t think I’d take Murray in PIT tonight, but I suppose you could talk me into it. He’s winning some games, but PIT is slumping a bit again and I don’t feel the win is as safe as Vegas would lead you to believe. He does see shots, so there is a floor there. Like I said, I don’t think I’ll be taking him, but you could talk me into it.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup
Wide open. Target CHI and fill in with anything you please. I wouldn’t mind breaking the usual “only 2 skaters from same team” cash rule tonight and going a bit harder on CHI skaters.
FanDuel Lineup
Fill in your Blackhawk. This one is set up to go chalk or go contrarian…..choice is yours.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut