The west coast swing is winding down and our bankroll is headed north! After a fantastic week at Phoenix where we were able to identify five of the six drivers in the optimal lineup in my Sway Bar article. Despite all that, I have to eat a bit of crow this week. Here was my analysis on Ryan Newman in that article:
“Newman is sneaky good at Phoenix. An average running of 15.7, and a good start to 2017 makes him an elite value play this week. I don’t think Richard Childress Racing is in a position to win a race at this point in time, and they have had some logistical errors over the last few weeks. I am looking for them to put those in the past this week, and it should result in a top 15 result for Newman, against a poor 22nd place qualifying performance.”
So here is my apology – apparently RCR is in a position to win a race at this point and time! Regardless, the win was just icing on the cake to a fantastic week. Now we move on to California, a track that has produced some of the most exciting races on the circuit over the last few years. To start, let’s take a look at California.
Track/Race Length: 2.0 mile D-shaped oval, 200 laps, 400 miles
Superspeedway: 2.0-mile oval 75 feet wide with a 15 foot apron
Banking: turns: 14°; front stretch 11°; backstretch 3°
Front Stretch: 3,100feet
Back Stretch: 2,500feet
Pit Road: 2,200 feet long with 44 individual pit stalls
Pit Road Speed: 55mph
Pace Car Speed: 60mph
California is big, fast, and gives drivers lots of options to get around. Take a look at some clips from last year and you will see cars running the yellow line, cars screaming around the middle, and cars high, wide and handsome. No matter your driving style, you can make it fit at California. That is what makes California such a fun race. The long, looping, banked corners put the race in the hands of the drivers when you are turning left, and the long wide straight aways throws the onus on the engine builders and their ability to lay down power.
Well we only go to California once a year, we can lean on last years Michigan race for two reasons. They used the 2017 package in the second Michigan race, and Michigan is a very similar track to California (the corners are a little more banked). We can also, of course, lean on last years race, so let’s start there.
If you can imagine…Kevin Harvick dominated the race. Lets compare all that information with last years race at Michigan.
The first thing that jumps out at me is good runs for Harvick and Johnson at both races. The second thing is how impressive the young drivers were with the 2017 package at a 2 mile track. Larson go his first win, Chase ran second and led laps, and Blaney eked out a top five. All these drivers are priced under $10,000 – so we could find some anchors in somewhere in this three. Lets look back at driver history at California.
Whew! Jimmie Johnson can get it done at Auto Club – but that’s not what we are looking at right now. Chase Elliott has only run one race here in the top series, but he ran fantastic. Couple that with the fact that is cars are better in 2017, and he clearly likes the 2017 aero package – Chase is certainly someone we will want to keep our eye on this weekend.
Ryan Blaney crashed out in his one start in California, but he ran well before that. He flirted with the top ten all day, and finished the day with an average running position of 14. Blaney clearly has power this year, and liked the 2017 aero package. His price has been trending upward (now at $8,300) but depending on his qualifying day – he is worth looking at.
Lastly, Kyle Larson. Three second place finishes in a row is downright cruel, but here’s the good news – he’s gonna have a real shot at the win this weekend. Larson and his crew have brought it most consistent cars to the track so far this season, and I expect that to continue this weekend. Larson’s California stats aren’t stellar – but they don’t tell the whole story. Larson brought him home second in his first ever start at California in 2014. Since then, his tendency to run the wall has cost him – as he tends to push the issue and hit the wall far too often. However, we have seen a different Larson this year. He is running the bottom really well and I expect he will keep it off the wall this year. I really think Larson can dominate this race, and he will certainly compete for a win if he keeps his head on straight. He could be a great play this weekend.
Now to find some value to look at, let’s look at driver rating at California since 2014, and compare to Michigan’s race last year. While nothing jumps out right away, I think Newman, Menard, McMurray and Austin Dillon are all worth investigating as the weekend progresses. Landon Cassill is also a guy who has a fantastic place differential history at California, so spend some time with him this week too.
So spend your weekend investigating Johnson, Harvick, Larson, Elliott, Blaney, Newman, A. Dillon, McMurray and Cassill, and we will catch up during The Sway Bar this Saturday. I have a really good feeling about this week. If you want to get in on the action, get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
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