a Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
We had another decent night with the free squares again. The only disappointment out of the group was Willy Hernangomez who got up to 4.3x value last night. Our other two squares fared much better. The free square of the night TJ McConnel put together a very respectable 5.6x value performance. Dwight Howard was the ultimate square though by dominating the Sixers and putting in a 7.4x value night. We had some of our VIP Members hit it big last night. First I’ll start off by congratulating user @kmarciano who took down the 75k Sharpshooter:
The second shout out goes to user @levig who dominated the leaderboard taking home over $9,000+:
Congrats!
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Tonight
We have had some decent nights with the free squares and we look to keep it going on this 5-games slate tonight. I don’t know if the value is going to be as obvious as some plays were last night. Let’s take a look at some of the guys I like tonight:
Free Squares
- Gorgui Dieng PF/C MIN ($5,900)
- Gorgui Dieng has a terrific matchup tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are a bottom 5 team defensively against big men which should shape up well for Dieng tonight. He will be going up against Ivica Zubac who has a -3.19 DRPM last among all centers on the board tonight. Gorgui averages right around .88 DKFP/M. The Timberwolves have an implied total of right (115)-points. This will also be a pace up game for the Timberwolves who have a pace number of (97) going up against the speedy Lakers who own a pace number of (101). Gorgui is in good form right now going for over 6x fantasy value in his last 3 games. I think that streak could continue tonight as the Lakers front court poses little threat to Gorgui. The Domination Station has a projection of 29 DKFP for Gorgui tonight. We also have him projected to get right around 34 minutes as well. Gorgui just played the Lakers recently and he went off for over 32.5 DKFP. I think Gorgui has a reasonable 5.5x floor tonight, and if he gets going on the offensive side of the ball he could reach 6.5-7x value.
- Jamal Crawford SG LAC ($3,900)
- With news of Austin Rivers missing some time for injury Jamal Crawford is simply just too cheap tonight. He comes into game tonight against the Suns averaging right around .75 DKFP/M. He will be going up against a Suns team that has struggled to defend shooting guards this year. They have a 1.10 aDVP against opposing shooting guards. The Clippers currently have an implied total of right around (115)-points. They play at a pace of right around (98) and will be going up against a Suns team who plays much faster with a pace of (103). Jamal has played pretty well recently in his last 5 games with a game in there in which he went off for 12.3x value. The VIP Spreadsheet really likes Crawford as well tonight. The value projections are as follows for Jamal: 81% chance to reach 5x value, 66% chance to reach 6x value, and solid upside numbers with a 46% chance to reach 7x value. We all know about Crawford’s upside, but his floor is relatively stable tonight. The Domination Station has a favorable projection for Jamal as well. We currently have him sitting wth a 23 DKFP projection. We also have him going for right around 31 minutes tonight. It is going to be hard to pass on Jamal Crawford as he could easily go off for right around 25-30 DKFP. He is probably the top sub $4,000 player on the board tonight which helps allow you fit in the high-priced studs.
- Patrick Beverley PG/SG HOU ($4,900)
- Beverley has burned fantasy owners the last two games, but I think he gets back on track tonight against the Trailblazers. Bev comes into the game averaging right around .77 DKFP/M. He will be going up against a Portland team who has a 1.04 aDVP. His individual matchup is probably one of the best on the board as he will be going up against Damian Lillard who owns a -1.47 DRPM. This is going to be one of the highest scoring games of the night, so you are going to want to get some exposure to this game. The Rockets have an implied total of right around (115)-points. They play at a pace of right around (102) and the Blazers play at a pace of right around (98). I talked about it in the intro but Beverley has seriously disappointed owners the past few games. I think we have to put that behind us and take advantage of the great matchup and situation tonight. Looking atVIP Spreadsheet we currently have the following value projections for Beverley: 55% chance to reach 5x value, 26% chance to reach 6x value, and 8% chance to reach 7x value. I am a little bit more bullish on Beverley tonight and think he has a safer floor than that. The Domination Station likes him a bit better with a DKFP projection of right around 25. We also foresee him getting right around 33 minutes. Beverley has a great matchup in what should be a high-scoring game. I’m going to roster him at a very affordable price tonight.
Free Square of the Night
Smaller slate tonight, but some huge tournaments on both sites. We had some DFS Army members do awesome last night, so lets hope that trend continues. If you haven’t signed up and taken advantage of our VIP Spreadsheet and Domination Station you are missing out! Sign up today before the season is over! Without further ado my free square of the night is going to be Gorgui Dieng! Good luck tonight everyone!
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