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Alvarez’ Searching For the Free Square – A Look At The Top Value Plays For the 3/28 Daily Fantasy NBA Slate

Searching For the Free Square 

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.

Recap

We had a pretty frustrating night with the free squares. Andre Drummond started out hot, but only ended up hitting 4.5x value. George Hill just missed out on 5x value. Tony Allen finished the night by only reaching 4.1x value. Just one of those nights that we have to move on from.

Tonight

If you are playing on DraftKings tonight the slate is split up again which can make things a little weird as far as the player pool is concerned. I will only be focusing on the main slate guys so let us take a look on some of the guys I like tonight:

Free Squares

  • Ish Smith PG DET ($5,000)
    • Reggie Jackson is looking like he might be done for the season which means a lot more minutes and production opportunities for Ish. He comes into the game averaging right around .80 DKFP/M. He will be going up against a Heat team who is decent against point guards with a .97 aDVP. The Pistons currently have an implied total of right around (99)-points. This game will be a slow grind it out type game as neither team has very high pace numbers. In two games as being named the recent starter Ish has had two great games and one really bad game. I think he has the opportunity to have a very good game tonight against Miami. The VIP Spreadsheet really likes Ish as well tonight his value projections are 83% chance to reach 5x value, 58% chance at 6x value, and a great upside number with 31% chance to reach 7x value. We have him projected to get right around 33 minutes which will be on the higher end for Ish this season. The Domination Station also likes Ish tonight as well. We have him currently projected for right around 26 DKFP. Our model like Ish, and even though it is not the greatest matchup I am on Ish tonight as well. He is going to get a ton of minutes tonight which will give him plenty of opportunities to reach fantasy value. I have him personally at right around a 5.5x floor tonight, and he has the potential to reach 6.5x+ upside with a number of minutes he will be receiving tonight.
  • Taurean Prince SF ATL ($4,800)
    • Taurean Prince makes his way back on the free squares again in a matchup against the Phoenix Suns. He comes into this game averaging around .78 DKFP/M. He has a really good matchup tonight against the Suns who are notorious for being bad on defense this year. They have a 1.02 aDVP against small forwards. Taurean’s matchup is even better as he will get to go against TJ Warren who has a horrendous -2.83 DRPM. The Hawks have a huge implied total tonight sitting at right around (115)-points. This will be a pace-up game for the Hawks who play at pace of around (100) going up against one of the fastest teams in the Suns and their (103) pace number. The Hawks are still pretty banged up so Taurean will see some significant run tonight. Looking at the VIP Spreadsheet we have the following value projections for Taurean: 63% chance to reach 5x value, 28% chance to reach 6x value, and 7% chance to reach 7x value. We have him projected to get right around 32 minutes. Our Domination Station has him projected for right around 25 points tonight, and I think we will most likely see him perform in that range tonight. He has had a couple games this season where he really has put up some big numbers. I think he has a pretty safe floor tonight, and higher upside than people think.
  • Dwight Howard C ATL ($7,600)
    • Dwight Howard has the ability to put together a great game against the Suns tonight. He comes into the game averaging right around 1.25 DKFP/M. The Suns are not known as defensive stoppers by any means they own a huge 1.13 aDVP against centers this season. His individual matchup is even better as he will be going against Alex Len who owns a -2.73 DRPM. We have already talked about the numbers for the Hawks, but a fast-paced game will really benefit Dwight tonight. Paul Millsap is likely to be out for some more time which will also benefit Dwight tonight. When Milsap is off the court Dwight’s usage and DKFP/M are both slightly elevated. Our models seem to like Dwight tonight as well. The VIP Spreadsheet has favorable value projections tonight for Dwight putting him right at 68% chance to reach 5x value, 24% chance to reach 6x value, 3% chance to reach 7x value.  I think he has bit more upside than that due to his favorable matchup and game factors. He has a solid projection according to our Domination Station which has a baseline projection of right around 40 DKFP. I think Dwight has the potential to get to 50 DKFPs tonight against the Suns. We have him projected to get right around 32 minutes tonight. Dwight is pretty affordable tonight for his projection, and I think he makes a great play to lock in at center tonightt

Free Square of the Night

We have a crazy slate tonight with a split slate and end of the season shenanigans. You have to be glued into to Twitter or if you are a DFS Army VIP Member stay locked into our Slack Chat.  If you haven’t signed up and taken advantage of our VIP Spreadsheet and Domination Station you are missing out. Sign up today before the season is over! Without further ado my free square of the night is going to be Ish Smith! Good luck tonight everyone!

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