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Memphis Grizzlies (-1) @ Indiana Pacers – O/U: 207
—————–Pace> MEM: 28th – IND: 15th
OFF Efficiency> MEM: 20th – IND: 14th
DEF Efficiency> MEM: 4th – IND: 20th
Matchup:
*Teams have not met this season
*Grizzlies have won four straight (4-0 ATS) meetings against the Pacers
MEM:
*11-22 ATS versus teams with a winning record over the last two seasons
-Brandan Wright (OUT- personal reasons)
Marc Gasol has been excellent, but the Pacers have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers over the last 10 games/fifth fewest over the last five games.
IND:
-Thad Young (PROBABLE- missed last eight games, wrist)
-Lavoy Allen (PROBABLE- missed last three games, knee)
Monta Ellis has posted at least 20 FDP in the last six games.
Washington Wizards (-8) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 217
—————-Pace> WSH: 14th – PHI: 8th
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 9th – PHI: 30th
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 10th – PHI: 15th
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (@PHI: 109 – WSH: 102), (@WSH: 109 – PHI: 93)
*Wizards are 8-2 (6-4 ATS) against the Sixers in their last 10 meetings
WSH:
-NO INJURIES
The Wizards starting lineup scores the highest percentage of their team’s points in the NBA. Fascinating, I’m aware, but it’ll be interesting to see what Bojan Bogdanovic can do for this team’s second unit. I don’t know that he’ll make an immediate impact tonight so tonight is a good night to take notes on what you see and who he plays with.
As for the starters, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have the best statistical matchups against the Sixers since Joel Embiid is on the shelf.
PHI:
*34-19 ATS as an underdog
*20-8 ATS at home
-Joel Embiid (OUT for at least next four games- knee)
Jahlil Okafor and Richaun Holmes are the only healthy centers for the Sixers so both deserve a lot of consideration tonight. Okafor will likely be the chalkier of the two, and he did post 37.8 FDP against the Wizards back on January 14th. Holmes, a preseason darling, has some intrigue here as well and I could definitely see him paying off on at the minimum price tag on FanDuel; he’s $4400 on DraftKings.
Dario Saric will also be a chalky fella tonight as well, and there’s a damn good reason for that; Ersan Ilyasova’s departure now opens up significant minutes for Saric at the four and a ton of field goal attempts as well.
Robert Covington could fly under the radar with everyone poised to roster Okafor and Saric, but he could potentially be the Sixers leading scorer when the night is all said and done. RoCo has already been seeing more field goal attempts with Embiid out of the lineup and they should be coming at a rapid pace now that Ilyasova is gone.
I’m very interested to see what Justin Anderson does with this opportunity he’s been given by the Sixers. He’s a truly gifted player but I have no idea what the minutes are going to look like; I’ll be taking notes, though.
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors (-3) – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> BOS: 18th – TOR: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> BOS: 6th – TOR: 4th
DEF Efficiency> BOS: 18th – TOR: 16th
Matchup:
*Raptors lead season series (TOR: 101 – @BOS: 94), (@TOR: 114 – BOS: 106), (@BOS: 109 – TOR: 104)
*Raptors are 7-4 (8-3 ATS) versus the Celtics in their last 11 meetings
BOS:
*18-9 ATS in road games
-Avery Bradley (DOUBTFUL- missed 20 of the last 21 games, Achilles)
Isaiah Thomas posted 56.3 FDP against the Raptors in their last meeting; he had never posted more than 40+ FDP against them in 13 prior meetings.
TOR:
*10-2 ATS versus Atlantic Division
-Patrick Patterson (QUESTIONABLE- knee sprain)
-PJ Tucker (OUT- coach’s decision)
Kyle Lowry draws a solid matchup against IT2, the NBA’s worst on-ball defender, per Defensive Real Plus-Minus. He’s been solid against the Celtics in three games this season, with FDP totals of 49.4, 44.3 and 42.9.
DeMar DeRozan had a team-high 59.6 FDP performance against the Celtics where he scored 41 real points but that was inflated by an unusual 13 rebounds for him
Jonas Valanciunas could be an excellent under-the-radar play for the Raptors. He did have a monstrous 18-point, 23-rebound performance against the Celtics back on January 10th but it’s been a while since he’s had consistent success. Norman Powell also has some appeal as he saw 28 minutes in his first game without Terrence Ross in the mix.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) – O/U: 207
—————-Pace> MIA: 21st – ATL: 11th
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 25th – ATL: 26th
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 6th – ATL: 5th
Matchup:
*Hawks lead season series (ATL: 93 – @MIA: 90), (@ATL: 103 – MIA: 95), (@MIA: 116 – ATL: 93)
*Hawks are 7-4 (4-6-1 ATS) versus the Heat in their last 11 meetings
*Seven of the last 11 Hawks/Heat games have gone UNDER the total
MIA:
-NO INJURIES
Josh Richardson is no longer on a minutes restriction and that will take some playing time away from Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters. Not only that, but this will also take some of the food off the table for James Johnson who sees a major decline in usage when Waiters, especially, is in the lineup.
Hassan Whiteside has the two highest FDP scores, 54 and 43.6, against the Hawks this season.
ATL:
-Dennis Schroder (OUT- suspended for one game, failed to report to team on time after break)
Malcolm Delaney will draw the start at point guard and that should allow Tim Hardaway Jr to spend more time at the one, while Kent Bazemore could get extra minutes as well. Ersan Ilyasova will make his debut for the Hawks and his minutes could be increased if they need him to play more at the three.
The Heat have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers over the last 10 games and Dwight Howard posted 54.4 FDP against the Heat in their second meeting this season- 26.7 in each of the other two meetings. Paul Millsap has the second-most FDP of any Hawks player against the Heat this season with 45.8 back on December 7th.
Utah Jazz (-3) @ Milwaukee Bucks – O/U: 200.5
—————-Pace> UTA: 30th – MIL: 20th
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 12th – MIL: 10th
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 3rd – MIL: 21st
Matchup:
*Jazz won the only meeting (@UTA: 104 – MIL: 88)
*Jazz have won their last five meetings (4-1 ATS) versus the Bucks
*Four of the last five Bucks/Jazz games have gone UNDER the total
UTA:
-Rodney Hood (WILL PLAY- missed last seven games, knee)
The return of Rodney Hood really puts this a damper on the upside tonight for most of these Jazz players. However, Rudy Gobert does have a great matchup against an inferior Bucks frontcourt and he posted FDP totals of 42.1, 36.8 and 46.3 against them in the last three meetings.
MIL:
-Jabari Parker (OUT for the season- torn ACL)
Khris Middleton had the All-Star break to get some additional rest and he is just way too cheap for the upside he brings to the table. Granted, they are playing the Jazz, but that’ll scare most people away and that’s where you pounce on the lower ownership.
Greg Monroe was an absolute beast just before the break, so now instead of trying to trade him the Bucks can…oh, I dunno…PLAY HIM!!! In the last three games, he’s posted FDP totals of 38.6, 48.6 and 40.1…all while coming off the bench.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-10) – O/U: 221
—————–Pace> LAL: 7th – OKC: 6th
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 24th – OKC: 21st
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 29th – OKC: 11th
Matchup:
*Teams split the two meetings (@OKC: 113 – LAL: 96), (@LAL: 111 – OKC: 109)
*Thunder are 8-1 (6-3 ATS) versus the Lakers in their last nine meetings
LAL:
-NO INJURIES
It’ll be an interesting situation to see who gets them bump in usage since Lou Williams has gone to the Rockets. You have to think it’ll be D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson, but my co-host on the NBA Daily Dispatch, Keith Hall, brought up a fantastic point on today’s show! The Lakers top-3 pick is protected this season and that might allow them to tank a lot of these games going forward. As we know, the NBA Lottery is never an exact science but this is certainly an interesting caveat to think about going forward.
OKC:
*22-11 ATS as a favorite
*18-9 ATS at home
*18-8 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Enes Kanter (PROBABLE- missed a month, broken forearm)
Russel Westbrook against the Lakers is about as easy of a decision as it gets. If you needed any extra nudging towards that decision, he’s posted FDP totals of 67.2 and 59.1 against them in two meetings this season.
OKC will welcome Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott into their trust tree tonight, but they are coming in as complimentary pieces and I’ll just take notes on the situation.
Opposing bigs have crushed the Lakers this season and Steven Adams has kept that reputation up by posting FDP totals of 39.4 and 33.2 against them this season.
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls (-6.5) – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> PHX: 3rd – CHI: 23rd
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 22nd – CHI: 18th
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 27th – CHI: 14th
Matchup:
*Suns won the only meeting (@PHX: 115 – CHI: 97)
*Suns are 3-2 (straight up/ATS) versus the Bulls in their last five meetings
PHX:
*13-5 ATS versus Eastern Conference
-Dragan Bender (OUT indefinitely- ankle surgery)
Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and TJ Warren are all interesting options for this matchup, and going forward for the rest of the season since PJ Tucker has been moved to Toronto, but it’s actually Marquese Chriss that is the most intriguing of these players. I look for him to pick up more minutes, as a result, and then starting putting together some profitable performances.
CHI:
*6-17 ATS on Friday nights over the last two seasons
-Paul Zipser (QUESTIONABLE- sprained ankle)
The Bulls will welcome Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow and Joffrey Lauvergne to town, but the main attraction tonight is the guy that didn’t get moved- Jimmy Butler. There is absolutely no one that the Suns have to get in his way, and this should be one of his better performances of the season. I’m sure he’s also a bit miffed that the team made a move that lessens their chances to be more competitive going forward.
Bobby Portis will be incredibly chalky tonight since his minutes will be increased with the departure of Taj. Portis had two solid performances (23.2 and 28.6 FDP) before the break and that should only continue with no one there to threaten his minutes. I also think that Robin Lopez could be more profitable in the team’s current situation.
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) – O/U: 203
—————-Pace> DAL: 29th – MIN: 24th
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 19th – MIN: 11th
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 17th – MIN: 23rd
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (@MIN: 101 – DAL: 92), (@DAL: 98 – MIN: 87)
*Mavericks are 8-1 (7-2 ATS) versus the Timberwolves in their last nine meetings
*Six of the last eight Mavericks/Timberwolves games have gone UNDER the total
DAL:
-Nerlens Noel (OUT- coach’ decision, did not travel)
-JJ Barea (OUT indefinitely- calf injury)
Now that Deron Williams has been waived by the Mavs, the Yogi Ferrell era begins and you’ll watch the ownership climb along with it. However, Yogi has only posted 35+ FDP twice during his recent span of six games where he played nearly 40 minutes and that’s not going to cut it for tournaments.
Nerlens Noel won’t suit up for tonight’s game, so that makes Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews and Dirk Nowitzki valuable for yet another game.
MIN:
-Lance Stephenson (OUT- sprained ankle/10-day contract expired)
Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have been breathing in heavy usage rates since Zach LaVine went down for the season with a torn ACL. Both of them aren’t exactly cheap, but this is exactly where all the meat and potatoes lie within this lineup.
Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets (-10) – O/U: 231
—————-Pace> BKN: 1st – DEN: 5th
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – DEN: 8th
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – DEN: 30th
Matchup:
*Nets won the only meeting (@BKN: 116 – DEN: 111)
*Nets have won five straight (5-0 ATS) versus the Nuggets
BKN:
-Quincy Acy (QUESTIONABLE- ankle sprain)
Jeremy Lin returns to the Nets lineup tonight, but he’s on a minutes restriction. In the limited time that Lin played this season, Brook Lopez was the one guy that really correlated well with him. BroLo is an interesting play tonight since he’s one of the only Nets that we can rely upon getting solid minutes and he did post a fantastic 60.3 FDP in that last game before the break.
Caris LeVert will be in the Nets starting lineup as well, and that’ll be interesting to see how he correlates with Lin. I don’t expect LeVert to have a monstrous game by any means, but I have been wrong before..and I’ll certainly be wrong again
DEN:
*1-10 ATS at home in B2B games over the last two seasons
-NO INJURIES
Nikola Jokic disappointed everyone last night, but don’t forget who told you to watch out for that…THIS GUY! Now that the Nuggets are completely healthy there are numerous players taking touches away from him, and I’m not paying nearly $11,000 on either site for all that disappointment.
Jameer Nelson is the only member of the Nuggets that I would trust nowadays. He continues to get solid minutes, but much unlike Jokic he’ll have the ball in his hands on every possession. Nelson has posted at least 33 FDP in five straight games- that’s at least 6x value in every game at his current price, and he’s taking on the team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ Los Angeles Clippers – O/U: 211
—————Pace> SA: 26th – LAC: 17th
OFF Efficiency> SA: 5th – LAC: 7th
DEF Efficiency> SA: 1st – LAC: 12th
Matchup:
*Clippers have won both meetings this season
*Clippers are 9-7 (8-8 ATS) versus the Spurs in their last 16 meetings
SA:
-Pau Gasol (PROBABLE- recovering from broken finger)
Kawhi Leonard is the only Spurs player that I would trust at this point. If you’re looking for a completely off-the-wall dart toss, Tony Parker is interesting…but only if CP3 is out for the Clippers.
LAC:
-Chris Paul (QUESTIONABLE- recovering from thumb surgery)
I don’t have much interest in the Clippers, but if I did, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan could make the list. DJ is especially interesting since opposing centers have posted a ton of points on Pau Gasol a lot this season.
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