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Walsh’s Way : NBA DFS Breakdown and Podcast – Thursday, February 23rd

Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for shitty jokes, DFS advice & retweets from beat writers

TODAY’S PODCAST

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5, ML: -140) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 213

—————Pace> POR: 10th  – ORL: 19th
OFF Efficiency> POR: 13th – ORL: 29th
DEF Efficiency> POR: 26th – ORL: 22nd

Matchup:

*Magic won the only meeting (ORL: 115 – @POR: 109)
*Magic are 3-2 (4-1 ATS) against the Blazers in their last five meetings

POR:

*10-19 ATS on the road

Al-Farouq Aminu (OUT- missed last game before All-Star break, knee)
-Evan Turner (OUT indefinitely- fractured hand)

The Magic gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards prior to the All-Star break, so Damian Lillard is licking his chops to get back at it. He seemed to be back on track, but two hiccups against the Hawks and Jazz sent him into the break with a lot left to be desired. All of that should be well behind him in a favorable matchup tonight.

CJ McCollum put up a stinker right before the break but he did well enough in the seven games prior to that to warrant exposure on any given night, like tonight. He’ll likely have to deal with Evan Fournier, which is never an easy task, but it’s also not the worst idea to roll him out there for GPPs.

Now that he’s gotten some time in with the Blazers coaching staff, we should start seeing significant minutes from Jusuf Nurkic. After all, they did trade their only resemblance of a center to get him. In Nurkic’s lone appearance for the Blazers before the All-Star break, he had 13 points, seven rebounds and three steals (26.9 FDP) in 21 minutes against a stingy Jazz squad.

With Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner already ruled out for this game, look for Maurice Harkless and Noah Vonleh to pick up extra minutes. Harkless is the preferred play here but Vonleh has surprised the masses a few times before.

ORL:

*8-18 ATS at home

-CJ Watson (OUT- sore Achilles)
-Jodie Meeks (OUT indefinitely- thumb surgery)
-CJ Wilcox (OUT indefinitely- Achilles injury)

If you’re a game log watcher, you’ll take a look at this Magic team and completely write them off. That’s a big mistake since they take on one of the worst defenses in the NBA, who are without two of their best defenders.

Nikola Vucevic didn’t really wow us in his first game without Serge Ibaka but we’ll chalk it up as a misnomer since it was a blowout loss against the Spurs; after all, he still put up 16 points and 10 rebounds in the effort. The Blazers should improve a bit with Nurkic (12th in DRPM out of 71 centers) on defense but it’s not enough to make shy away from Vuc totally.

Elfrid Payton ($5200 DK/$5600 FD) and Evan Fournier ($6000 DK/$5400 FD) have some different views on how they’re priced on each site but I do like their matchups tonight at that cost. Again, most people will see their recent game logs and you might be able to take advantage of that with an underwhelming grasp of their ownership percentage.

Aaron Gordon is still at a very cheap $4900 DK/$4500 FD price tag and he’ll be playing 30+ minutes between the three and four since Ibaka has departed Orlando.

I liked Terrence Ross in the last Magic game before the break…and then he didn’t even play. Bastard! Well, he’s making it up to everyone by entering the starting lineup at $3800 DK/$3500 FD and that certainly makes him an appealing GPP dart.


Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons (-4.5, ML: -190) – O/U: 207.5

—————Pace> CHA: 16th – DET: 25th
OFF Efficiency>  CHA: 16th – DET: 23rd
DEF Efficiency>   CHA: 7th  – DET: 12th

Matchup:

*Pistons lead season series (DET: 112 – @CHA: 89), (@CHA: 87 – DET: 77), (@DET: 115 – CHA: 114)
*Teams have split the last 10 meetings

CHA:

-Cody Zeller (OUT- missed 10 of 11 games before All-Star break, quadricep soreness)
-Miles Plumlee (OUT indefinitely- missed the last game before the All-Star break, calf soreness)
-Ramon Sessions (OUT indefinitely- surgery on torn meniscus)

Kemba Walker has posted three of the highest four FDP totals against the Pistons this season with 34.4, 36.6 and 44.9, the latter being the most recent. The matchup for him is a good one, and he’ll look to piggyback on those two good performances he showed before the break.

Nicolas Batum has not fared as well as Walker, with a scattered range of FDP totals (19.3, 26.7, 35.5) against the Pistons this season. His matchup against KCP makes me cringe a bit and he’ll likely take a backseat to production if Walker ends up having another good performance against the Pistons.

With Cody Zeller and Miles Plumlee both ruled out already and Roy Hibbert traded to Denver, that leaves the Hornets frontcourt solely manned by Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams. Just from a physical standpoint, it’ll be a tall task (pun intended) for Kaminsky to try and man up one of the NBA’s most opposing forces in Andre Drummond, but his $6300 DK/$6000 FD price tag for around 35 minutes alone is well worth it; same goes for Williams, who should play a similar amount of time at $4700 DK/$5100 FD but beware of the erratic production. It’s likely that we’ll see Michael Kidd-Gilchrist take on some minutes at the four while Jeremy Lamb and Marco Belinelli pick up extra time as well.

DET:

*7-0 on 2-3 days of rest

-NO INJURIES

There hasn’t been much consistency for the Pistons in this season-long matchup with the Hornets, as seven different players make up the seven highest FDP totals. Andre Drummond had, by far, the best performance by a Pistons player against the Hornets this season with 54.5 FDP.

Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith are both staying put in Detroit…yay! Now we get to play coin flip for the rest of the year with these two idiots- same goes for Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris, although, Leuer has played at least 34 minutes in four of the last five games and that’s appealing for $4600 DK/$4700 FD.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, could tonight finally be the night? The night, when you finally regain that swagger that made us KCP groupies stick with you during this current rut? Hopefully, he got his mojo back over the break because it’s really tough to fade a guy that is playing minutes in the upper-30s and priced at $4900 on both sites.


Houston Rockets (-3, ML: -150) @ New Orleans Pelicans – O/U: 227

—————Pace>   HOU: 4th  –  NO: 9th
OFF Efficiency>  HOU: 2nd  – NO: 27th
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 14th –  NO: 8th

Matchup:

*Rockets won the only meeting (@HOU: 122 – NO: 100)
*Rockets are 6-3 (5-4 ATS) against the Pelicans in their last nine meetings
*Six of the last nine Rockets/Pelicans game have gone UNDER the total

HOU:

-Lou Williams (OUT- trade isn’t official yet)
-Patrick Beverley (QUESTIONABLE- left last game before All-Star break, strained groin)

This game sets up very well for James Harden, who should be able to take advantage of a team trying to find their new identity. One area that I believe Harden will flourish is the transition game- with a lot of bigger bodies in the Pelicans lineup, it’ll be impossible for them to run up and down the court with this Rockets team. If the Rockets stick to their usual gameplan, Harden can be the highest scoring player on tonight’s slate.

The Rockets will have a very thin rotation of 10 guys tonight- they traded away James Ennis and KJ McDaniels today and the trade that brought Lou Williams to Houston just became official an hour ago. It’s not like Ennis and McDaniels were playing big minutes, but it’s still something to monitor for this game. If a few of their guys get into foul trouble, which they definitely can against AD and Boogie, a some will be asked to do more than usual; that could make Montrezl Harrell and Nene Hilario actually worth something.

Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Patrick Beverley all have some GPP appeal, as usual, but it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint who is going to have the best night of the bunch.

NO:

-Terrence Jones (DOUBTFUL- missed last four games before All-Star break, sprained thumb)

There’s no avoiding the elephant in the room with Anthony Davis welcoming DeMarcus Cousins into his statistical party that is the New Orleans Pelicans frontcourt. I think AD profiles much better than Boogie for this contest, given the fast nature of the game. However, I do not think the Pelicans will try to ease Boogie into the rotation since they have stated many times since the trade that they are feverishly trying to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. With all that being said, I don’t mind fading either guy because it might just be the intelligent move to watch how this whole experiment works out from a fantasy perspective.

Jrue Holiday is now in a position where he should be consistently reaching double-digit assist totals with AD and Boogie alongside him. Going forward, you’re not going to get much of an argument from me in regards to playing Holiday, but tonight he’ll be defended by Patrick Beverley and that’s not my cup of tea.

E’Twaun Moore actually becomes the most intriguing fantasy option from a $/PT perspective with all the moves that have taken place. Also as a plus, now he doesn’t have to share minutes with Buddy Hield or Tyreke Evans.

Tim Frazier even becomes a relevant fantasy piece once again since he’ll actually see the floor after warmups. Hollis Thompson was signed as well, and he could play some decent minutes somewhere down the line.


New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, ML: -650) – O/U: 223

————–Pace> NYK: 12th – CLE: 13th
OFF Efficiency> NYK: 15th – CLE: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> NYK: 25th – CLE: 20th

Matchup:

*Cavs won all three meetings (@CLE: 117 – NYK: 88), (CLE: 126 – @NYK: 94), (CLE: 111 – @NYK: 104)
*Cavs are 9-1 (5-5 ATS) against the Knicks in their last 10 meetings
*Eight of the last Knicks/Cavs games have gone OVER the total

NYK:

-Brandon Jennings (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game before All-Star break, sore Achilles)
-Joakim Noah (QUESTIONABLE- missed last five games before All-Star break, sore hamstring)

Carmelo Anthony is still a member of the Knicks, much to the chagrin of…well, everyone. He hasn’t done that great against the Cavaliers this season because…well, the Knicks haven’t done that well against them. The Knicks are longshots to win this game, and that’s basically how I’d label Melo’s chances of having a big game tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis really caught my eye with a few solid performances before the All-Star break and I love his outlook tonight in a favorable matchup against Channing Frye. Sure, the Knicks could very well get their asses kicked but he could certainly do his thing. However, KP hasn’t had great numbers against the Cavs over the course of his career and his best game (47.6 FDP) against them came last season when Melo wasn’t in the lineup.

The Knicks point guard situation gives me a headache, and it’s very surprising that Derrick Rose did not get moved at the deadline. He does have some appealing qualities tonight- the matchup against Kyrie and his backup, Brandon Jennings, is dealing with some Achilles soreness so they may not push him too hard.

CLE:

*11-2 on 2-3 days of rest
*24-40 ATS against teams with a losing record over the last two seasons

-Kevin Love (OUT indefinitely- arthroscopic knee surgery)

LeBron James has posted the three highest FDP totals (44.7, 48, 51.2) of any Cavs player against the Knicks this season. He’s got a matchup with fat lazy Melo and I rank him as one of the best players on tonight’s slate. That’s all I got to say about that.

Kyrie Irving had two solid outings (38.6 and 41.4 FDP) against the Knicks, and actually sat out the last meeting between the two teams. Without Kevin Love, it’s Irving that sees the biggest boost in usage, shots and all those other fancy peripherals.

Channing Frye will continue to get solid minutes with Love out of the lineup as well. I wonder if people will forget all about him since the Kings provide bargain bin pricing at the same position tonight?

If Tristan Thompson were cheaper, I’d appreciate the fact that he’s played at least 35 minutes in five of the last six games. He’s been all over the map against the Knicks this season and you probably don’t have to take this unnecessary risk.

I am, however, intrigued by Iman Shumpert at $3500 DK/$3900 FD. He’s had plenty of time to heal his aching bones and did play 26 minutes in each of the two games before the break.


Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (-12, ML: -1000) – O/U: 230.5

————–Pace> LAC: 18th – GS: 2nd
OFF Efficiency>  LAC: 7th  – GS: 1st
DEF Efficiency>  LAC: 9th  – GS: 2nd

Matchup:

*Warriors won all three meetings (GS: 115 – @LAC: 98), (@GS: 144 – LAC: 98), (GS: 133 – @LAC: 120)
*Warriors are 10-1 (7-3-1 ATS) versus the Clippers in their last 11 meetings

LAC:

-Chris Paul (OUT- medically cleared to play, recovering from thumb surgery)

The Clippers would certainly welcome the return of Chris Paul to their lineup, but it is not happening tonight. Blake Griffin actually had a very good game against the Warriors last time out and that makes him a very interesting play tonight. You have to think the Clippers are going to put up a fight at least once against the Warriors this season, so that gives Griffin a little more appeal.

DeAndre Jordan should be able to feast against whomever the Warriors throw his way. However, there are lots of cheap options at center so this would just be a way to diversify some lineups.

Since CP3 remains out you’ll see Raymond Felton, Austin Rivers, JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford all handle those minutes.

GS:

*11-1 on 2-3 days of rest
*15-7 ATS against teams with a winning record

-Zaza Pachulia (WILL PLAY- missed last eight games before All-Star break, shoulder soreness)
-David West (QUESTIONABLE- recovering from thumb surgery)

Three meetings against the Clippers have turned into three blowout wins for the Warriors, and tonight has high hopes of a fourth.

Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have consistently lit up the Clippers this season and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again tonight. Curry has posted the better FDP totals (60.8, 51.1, 43.8) of the two and the best two performances came when CP3 was in street clothes, just as he’ll be tonight. Durant has been no slouch against the Clippers and he is certainly in play as well.

Klay Thompson and Draymond Green aren’t bad options, but I’d rather spend my money elsewhere on better $/PT options that are all over the board tonight.


Denver Nuggets (-7.5, ML: -310) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 221

—————-Pace>  DEN: 5th  – SAC: 27th
OFF Efficiency>   DEN: 8th  – SAC: 17th
DEF Efficiency>  DEN: 30th – SAC: 24th

Matchup:

*Kings won only meeting (SAC: 120 – @DEN: 113)
*Kings are 6-2 (straight up/ATS) versus the Nuggets
*The last eight Nuggets/Kings games have gone OVER the total

DEN:

-Danilo Gallinari (WILL PLAY- missed eight games before All-Star break, groin soreness)
-Wilson Chandler (PROBABLE- missed two games before the All-Star break, illness)
-Kenneth Faried (DOUBTFUL- missed four games before All-Star break, sprained ankle)
-Emmanuel Mudiay (QUESTIONABLE- missed six games before All-Star break, back soreness)
-Darrell Arthur (QUESTIONABLE- missed two games before All-Star break, knee soreness)

Nikola Jokic should have the ultimate feast against a severely undersized Kings frontline. My only issue with Jokic is that he could lose some touches if a couple of his ailing teammates make their way back into the Nuggets lineup. Power forward is an interesting position tonight, with so many value options available to us, but you may get Jokic a little more under-owned than you usually would.

There have been plenty of Nuggets players mentioned in trade talks- Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried– and of course, none of them got moved. If everyone on this team is fully healed from their injuries before the break, it’s going to be a chaotic situation; I have no idea who will benefit the most, but I feel like Chandler always outperforms Gallo. Faried is listed as doubtful tonight so look for a couple more minutes from each guy, and maybe even Juancho Hernangomez.

Jameer Nelson will still be in the starting lineup, even when Emmanuel Mudiay comes back to the lineup. Mudiay is still questionable for this game but obviously, makes Nelson a more attractive play if he’s out.

SAC:

-Ty Lawson (WILL PLAY- missed four games before All-Star break, leg soreness)
-Arron Afflalo (QUESTIONABLE- injured during last game before All-Star break, hamstring soreness)
-Garrett Temple (OUT- missed multiple games before All-Star break, hamstring soreness)
-Malachi Richardson (OUT indefinitely- torn hamstring)

 

Darren Collison will have to deal with the return of Ty Lawson. Hopefully, people will forget that Lawson exists and roster Collison when he’ll only be getting around 30 minutes, as opposed to the 40 he was playing before the break. Look, we all know that point guards against the Nuggets are as primo as it gets but I’d rather be on the sidelines watching how this scenario plays out between Collison, Lawson and all the other guards that make up the Kings roster.

Expect Willey Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos to be two of the more highly owned players on tonight’s slate. At either the minimum or near minimum prices on both sites, they’ll be playing 30+ minutes against a Nuggets frontcourt that has been had at times this season. Anthony Tolliver could be a very sneaky play at the power forward position that goes overlooked as a result of everyone hitching their wagon onto the WCS and Koufos wagon.

A lot of focus will be on Buddy Hield tonight but I’m not sure that he’ll be worth the risk. Keep in mind, he’ll be put in a similarly crowded backcourt situation that was in New Orleans. On the bright side, the Kings did basically trade him straight up for Boogie so they’ll definitely want a return of some sort from that deal.

Tyreke Evans will be on a 27-minute restriction for this game, but that’s OK for a guy that has a $4200 DK/$4500 FD price tag.


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