Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

Walsh’s Way : NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown – Thursday, February 16th

Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for shitty jokes, DFS advice & retweets from beat writers

TODAY’S PODCAST


Washington Wizards (-2.5, ML: -135) @ Indiana Pacers – O/U: 215

—————-Pace> WSH: 13th – IND: 15th
OFF Efficiency>   WSH: 9th  – IND: 14th
DEF Efficiency>  WSH: 12th – IND: 19th

Matchup:

*Wizards lead season series (@IND: 107 – WSH: 105), (@WSH: 111 – IND: 105), (@WSH: 112 – IND: 107)
*Teams have split the last 10 meetings
*Nine of the last 10 Wizards/Pacers games have gone OVER the total

WSH:

*7-4 on 2+ days of rest
*21-12 ATS when the total is 210+
*23-12 ATS after scoring 105+ points

-NO INJURIES

The Wizards starting lineup scores the highest percentage of the team’s points in the NBA. That’s important because, statistically, it means that their starters are probably the best players to use in tonight’s scenario. Also, if you wonder why everyone’s numbers suck from last game that’s because they clobbered OKC in about two and a half quarters on Monday.

John Wall is the most expensive player on both sites tonight, but he hasn’t been living up to his salary-based expectations of late. On a two-game slate, we’re just trying to find players that will score the most FPs, and that could very well be Wall when the night is all said and done. He’s done well against the Pacers so far this season putting up three of the Wizards’ top four FPs totals against them, including 47.6 FPD last week. The Pacers have also given up the fourth-most FPPG to opposing point guards over the last five games.

Bradley Beal hasn’t topped 30 FDP against the Pacers this season, but he’s been pretty damn close in two of those meetings. The Pacers have given some big games to shooting guards, and while Beal’s lack of consistency puts him in question for most formats tonight you can certainly fire em’ up in GPPs.

Before Monday’s blowout win over OKC, Marcin Gortat had been remarkably consistent over the previous eight games with an average of 36.7 FDP; he left Monday’s game with about four minutes left in the third quarter and never returned, finishing with 27 FDP. In an even more mind-blowing occurrence, Gortat has been just as consistent against the Pacers this season with FDP totals of 35.1, 35.7 and 38.2 FDP. The Pacers also allow their opponents to grab the fourth-most rebounds per game in the NBA this season.

After dropping two duds against the Pacers back in December, Markieff Morris battled back for a double-double (44.5 FDP) last week. Thad Young has been injured for the last seven games, and while most power forwards have struggled against the Pacers in that span, Morris’s performance was clearly the best.

Otto Porter has been solid in the month of February, but his only dud came against the Pacers. You’ve got a big choice to make on whether it’ll be Porter or Paul George you put at the SF2 spot tonight; Porter does come at a $2000 bargain on both sites.

Jason Smith could be an interesting salary-saver as he’s played at least 21 minutes in two of the last three games; he’s produced admirably every now and again this season.

IND:

*12-21 ATS when the total is 210+

-Thaddeus Young (DOUBTFUL- missed the last seven games, sprained wrist)
-Lavoy Allen (QUESTIONABLE- missed the last two games, sore knee)

The Domination Station loves Jeff Teague tonight, and I would have to agree with that fine piece of fancy analytical software. He comes at a much cheaper cost than IT2 or Wall but has still been producing at a slightly less $/PT ratio than them. Teague has exceeded or hovered around salary-based expectations in seven of the last eight games- the only misnomer was Saturday’s disaster against the Bucks, who are allowing the second-fewest FPPG to opposing point guards this season.

Paul George might be the most overrated player on this two-game slate and hopefully, he doesn’t make me eat my words. He has, however, posted FDP totals of 22.1 and 24.9 in the last three games but against the Wizards last week he dropped 39.8 FDP.

Myles Turner hasn’t shown much upside of late, so I can’t recommend him for any contest type on a two-game slate. You can do much better if you go up or down the pricing chart.

Monta Ellis should be popular tonight, and that’s when these players tend to disappoint us the most. If you are an optimist, much unlike myself, you’ll find comfort in the fact he’s posted at least 20 FPs in five straight games while averaging 29 minutes per outing in that span.

Al Jefferson is an interesting punt play at the center position. He’s not playing 20+ minutes, which kind of sucks, but he should at least get you 5x value. Anything more than that, and it’s your lucky day.

Glenn Robinson III posted 29.2 FDP out of nowhere last night in Cleveland, so that’ll make him a decently calculated punt on this slate. To offer some comfort, he’s played 22 and 26 minutes in each of the last two games. Will it continue? I have no idea…


Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls (PK) – O/U: 213.5

—————-Pace> BOS: 17th – CHI: 23rd
OFF Efficiency>   BOS: 6th   – CHI: 18th
DEF Efficiency>  BOS: 17th – CHI: 13th

Matchup:

*Teams have split the season series (@CHI: 105 – BOS: 99), (@BOS: 107 – CHI: 100)
*Bulls are 5-4 (4-5 ATS) against the Celtics in their last nine meetings
*Six of the last eight Celtics/Bulls games have gone OVER the total

BOS:

*2-10 ATS after 3+ consecutive wins
*18-8 ATS in road games
*23-10 ATS in road games when the total is 210+ over the last three seasons
*33-15 ATS when playing on B2B days over the last three seasons

-Avery Bradley (OUT until after the All-Star break, Achilles)
-Jaylen Brown (OUT until after the All-Star break, hip)
-Gerald Green (WILL TRY TO PLAY- injured in last night’s game, heel)

Isaiah Thomas has averaged only 40.1 FDP over the last seven games, and that’s just not getting it done at his $10,000 price tag on FanDuel. I’d rather play him over on DraftKings at $9200 where the production is more valid at that price. Time to be positive- IT2 has posted FDP totals of 41.2, 51.6, 56.5, 47.5, 46.6 and 54.4 the last six times the Celtics have played on the back-end of B2Bs.

Marcus Smart was my GPP play from the Celtics in yesterday’s article, and that certainly worked out well. I know most people will feel like he’s a smart (pun intended) fade because last night’s 46.5 FDP was boosted by eight steals, but that’s certainly not the case. Avery Bradley and Jaylen Brown have already been ruled out, but Gerald Green will try to play; that doesn’t sound hopeful at all. At Smart’s price, it’s a no-brainer on the minutes he’ll receive alone.

Al Horford hasn’t reached 30 FDP in the last five games, but it’s not like he was producing massive upside before that. In this time that Horford has struggled, Kelly Olynyk has stepped in and exceeded salary-based expectations in the last three games. In a $/PT sense, it’s a no-brainer going Olynyk over Horford tonight. Jae Crowder hasn’t shown much upside in a while and he’ll likely draw the Bulls best defender. Next…

Amir Johnson could be a popular salary-saving option, but his volatile minutes and production leave him suitable for GPPs only. He did post a solid 44.7 FDP against the Bulls in their last meeting, but only 9.7 in the first. Our Domination Station is a big fan of Terry Rozier tonight. He’s played at least 19 minutes in the last four games, but the production has waned of late; if the DS says it’s coming back, it’s coming back damnit! James Young is also interesting as he’s posted three-straight double-digit fantasy point performances.

CHI:

-Nikola Mirotic (WILL PLAY- practiced in full yesterday, back)
-Dwayne Wade (OUT- went through parts of yesterday’s practice, wrists)
-Paul Zipser (OUT until after the All-Star break, ankle)

Jimmy Butler will be the most productive player on the slate tonight, book it! He seems to be fully healthy now and his matchup against Crowder or Smart looks a lot better on paper than it does in real life. Dwayne Wade is out tonight and Butler typically goes into a full-on beast mode in these situations.

Now comes the real fun- where is the rest of the production coming from?

Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant will be the starting tandem in the Bulls backcourt, but Rajon Rondo is still very appealing since he’s played at least 23 minutes in each of the last four games- more minutes than Grant has played. Rondo also posted FDP totals of 26.7 and 30.3 against the Celtics this season, albeit in 34 minutes each time. The minutes for MCW are pretty solid, but you have to wonder how much production he’ll have with Butler back.

Taj Gibson will typically get minutes in the upper-20s, but we’re still waiting for the production to come back around. I don’t mind him from a salary-saving aspect because there aren’t too many power forwards on this slate that moves the meter and the Celtics are terrible down low.

That leads us to the Robin Lopez and Cristiano Felicio– RoLo is starting to see fewer minutes lately because of the emergence by Feliciano. The minutes for Felicio have gone up incrementally over the last four games, but you never know what kind of production you’ll get from a guy like this. Isn’t this what two-game slates are all about?


DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball NBA cheat sheet in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code ADOTWALSH to lock in at 20% off the monthly membership fee. That’s just $16 a month for our premium chat, coaching from sport-specific experts, cheat sheets and optimization tools. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.