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Charlotte Hornets (-4, ML: -170) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 208
—————-Pace> CHA: 15th – SAC: 26th
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 17th – SAC: 16th
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 7th – SAC: 24th
Matchup:
*Kings won the only meeting (SAC: 109 @ CHA: 106)
*Kings are 3-2 (straight up/ATS) versus the Hornets in their last 5 meetings
*4 of the last 5 Hornets/Kings games have gone OVER the total
CHA:
*2-10 ATS on Saturdays this season
*8-17 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Cody Zeller (QUESTIONABLE- missed 11 of last 12 games, quad soreness)
-Ramon Sessions (OUT indefinitely- torn meniscus)
-Miles Plumlee (OUT indefinitely- calf soreness)
Kemba Walker has been on fire lately with FPD totals of 43.9, 43.3 and 55.4- all of this coming after one of the worst slumps of his entire career. Sacramento has done a decent job against opposing point guards this season, but it’ll be a tough task to slow down Kemba with the roll he’s on. As Kemba has rolled, Nicolas Batum has gone the other way with FDP totals of 26.2, 22.3 and 29.7.
Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams have been soaking up a ton of minutes with all the injuries to their frontcourt- these two are the only reason that I’m playing the early slate today. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has played a combined 75 minutes over the last two games and posted 70.6 FDP as a result.
The Kings have struggled against wing players this season, so it’s possible that Jeremy Lamb and even Marco Belinelli could have a decent $/PT day.
SAC:
-Garrett Temple (OUT indefinitely- hamstring injury)
-Malachi Richardson (OUT indefinitely- torn hamstring)
-Arron Afflalo (QUESTIONABLE- hamstring soreness)
Willey Cauley-Stein balled outrageous in the first game of the post-Boogie era to the tune of 40 FDP in a team-high 35 minutes off the bench. His price only jumped up to $4800 over there but did climb to $5600 on DraftKings. I thought it would be Anthony Tolliver to benefit the most in the wake of Boogie, but he only posted 16.1 FDP despite playing 31 minutes; he does have a reasonable $4000 DK/$3900 FD price tag so it might be worth it to take a shot for hopes of glory at a very low ownership percentage. Kosta Koufos will continue to be popular but I’m not sure it’s worth it at this point since he only played 21 minutes in that last game.
As for the Kings backcourt, there are so many players that can possibly get minutes. The point guard combo of Darren Collison and Ty Lawson still appears to be alive and well. New additions Buddy Hield and Tyreke Evans each played 26 minutes and contributed admirably in their debuts on Thursday- Hield: 25.7 FDP, Evans: 22.3. Hield is much cheaper so expect him to be the more popular of the two today. Ben McLemore spent some time at the four, but it’s apparent that he doesn’t belong there.
Atlanta Hawks (-3, ML: -150) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 209.5
—————-Pace> ATL: 11th – ORL: 19th
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 26th – ORL: 29th
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 5th – ORL: 22nd
Matchup:
*Hawks lead season series (ORL: 131 @ ATL: 120), (ATL: 111 @ ORL: 92), (@ATL: 113 – ORL: 86)
*Hawks are 7-4 (5-6 ATS) versus the Magic in their last 11 meetings
*7 of the last 11 Hawks/Magic games have gone UNDER the total
ATL:
-NO INJURIES
I know Paul Millsap disappointed us last night, but this matchup against the Magic is one of the best on the board, as he’ll be going head-to-head against Aaron Gordon, who ranks 85th out of 94 power forwards in the NBA. The Magic have also been generous to opposing centers this season so look for Dwight Howard to have a big game in his old stomping grounds.
Dennis Schroder will likely return to the starting lineup after a one-game suspension. Schroder has posted great FDP totals of 39.7, 38.8 and 34.7 against the Magic this season, but it will be interesting to see what type of minutes he gets since the Hawks hierarchy was not happy that he didn’t return to the team from the All-Star break until late Thursday night. That’s probably a situation to stay away from, as well as with Malcolm Delaney unless we get a definitive word on what is going on.
Tim Hardaway Jr and Kent Bazemore went into the All-Star break and came out of it the same way- shitty! This should be a good bounce-back spot for them if only Millsap and Howard don’t hog all the points.
ORL:
*8-19 ATS at home this season
-CJ Watson (QUESTIONABLE- sore Achilles)
-Jodie Meeks (OUT indefinitely- thumb surgery)
-CJ Wilcox (OUT indefinitely- sore Achilles)
Elfrid Payton has the best statistical matchup of any Magic player as the Hawks have been getting torched by opposing point guards all season. I would feel much more comfortable if the player in question wasn’t Payton, but it’s a decently calculated play nonetheless. Payton did drop a team-high 52.6 FDP on the Hawks this season back on December 13th and 33.8 on January 4th.
Evan Fournier is back to his old ways, playing minutes in the upper-30s once again. The best way to attack the Hawks is in their backcourt and he is certainly the best guard that the Magic have. Fournier posted 38 FDP against the Hawks back on December 13th.
Terrance Ross wasted no time getting acclimated into the Magic offense as he jacked up 17 shots (eight of them were behind the arc) but he only managed to hit four of those shots. The encouraging sign was that Ross played 33 minutes, and at $4500 DK/$3700 FD that looks like solid value to me.
It’ll be a tough task for Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon against their respective matchups today, as evidenced by the fact that neither of them has topped 30 FDP against the Hawks this season.
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks (-5) – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> PHI: 7th – NYK: 12th
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30th – NYK: 15th
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 14th – NYK: 26th
Matchup:
*Sixers won only meeting (@PHI: 98 – NYK: 97)
*Knicks are 7-2 (5-4 ATS) versus the Sixers in their last 9 meetings
PHI:
*35-19 ATS as an underdog this season
-Joel Embiid (OUT indefinitely- knee soreness)
I’m a bit surprised that the Sixers are five-point underdogs in this game, but then again, I was surprised they were eight-point underdogs against the Wizards last night…and look what happened there.
Robert Covington and Dario Saric are really liking the absence of Joel Embiid for their personal numbers…trust me, they’ll both thank him when their next contract discussions come around. Both guys have been absolutely crushing it without Embiid, and the only reason not to have Covington or Saric is to get away from the high ownership percentages they’ll have attached to them.
Last night certainly wasn’t the Jahlil Okafor show like everyone anticipated, but it did turn into the Richaun Holmes extravaganza! I think you can already tell that Sixers head coach Brett Brown loves the defense that Holmes brings to the table so I’d look for him to get more minutes down the stretch going forward. However, the Knicks are suspiciously favored by a lot in this game and I could see the Sixers using Okafor a bit more than they did last night since they might need more offense. Just a little something to think about…
-Kristaps Porzingis (OUT- sprained ankle)
-Joakim Noah (DOUBTFUL- missed last six games, hamstring soreness)
NYK:
With KP out of the lineup, Carmelo Anthony should be chucking up around 50 shots per game until that big Latvian bastard returns. I really hate using Melo in all formats, but the number of shots attempts he’s destined to get and the possible rebounds that are up for grabs…I don’t know if I can shy away from that.
As for the rest of these shitbags, Willy Hernangomez and Kyle O’Quinn should log some meaningful frontcourt minutes. Melo will play a lot at the four while Mindaugas Kuzminskas (MIN DAWG US!!!) will finally get at least 20 minutes in the rotation once again- hey, Jeff Hornacek said so…it was on the internet, it must be true. As someone who lives in the NYC area, I am always skeptical about the product the Knicks will put out on the court…but this all seems too good to be true.
Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee are incredibly interesting here as well. I’m sure both of them can reach the 5x value at their respective prices but I am worried about them in tournaments if Melo decides that he wants to do it all tonight. The fact that the Knicks are such heavy favorites leans towards good vibes for everyone.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (-3.5) – O/U: 209.5
—————-Pace> IND: 16th – MIA: 21st
OFF Efficiency> IND: 14th – MIA: 24th
DEF Efficiency> IND: 20th – MIA: 6th
Matchup:
*Heat won the only meeting (@MIA: 95 – IND: 89)
*Pacers are 5-4 (6-3 ATS) versus the Heat in their last 9 meetings
*6 of the last 9 Heat/Pacers games have gone UNDER the total
IND:
*9-19 ATS playing on the back-end of B2Bs over the last 2 seasons
-Al Jefferson (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, dental procedure)
Oh, these Pacers…I seriously have no idea what to do with them. Our Domination Station loves Jeff Teague tonight (how can you hate that?) but it’s finally time that we move on from Monta Ellis– priced at $5000 on FanDuel? Keep it moving…
Myles Turner could be an interesting GPP option if Al Jefferson misses another game. Centers have done some damage against the Heat this season, but especially ones that can hit the jumper from the perimeter. I think there are better $/PT options but if you’re multi-entering then Turner isn’t such a bad idea. Lavoy Allen did step up with 25 FDP in 21 minutes last night.
Paul George has a leg cramp and he hasn’t reached salary-based expectations in the last five games. Melo is only $400 more on DK with a lot more opportunity…
MIA:
-NO INJURIES
Hassan Whiteside continues to give his owners migraines…I’m no doctor, but the best advice I can give is to lay off him until otherwise noted. Whiteside’s backup, Willie Reed, actually outscored him in fantasy points last night and that’s probably just as bad as the Okafor-Holmes massacre that went down.
Miami’s backcourt situation isn’t any better, but at least we know one thing for sure- Tyler Johnson is a better fantasy option than Goran Dragic…and he has been for the longest time. TyJo is a huge favorite of mine (hell, he was almost a Brooklyn resident) but the price differential between him and the starter is ridiculous. The only thing that prohibits this from being a perfect situation is the fact that Dion Waiters and Josh Richardson are back in the mix. Also, remember that James Johnson basically lays in a casket as long all four of these guys are in the lineup- since they have been coming back piece-by-piece, JJ has posted FDP totals of 35.3, 28.1, 18.7 and 11.9 in the last four games. Gross.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks (-1) – O/U: 205
—————-Pace> NO: 9th – DAL: 29th
OFF Efficiency> NO: 27th – DAL: 22nd
DEF Efficiency> NO: 9th – DAL: 17th
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (@DAL: 91 – NO: 81), (@NO: 111 – DAL: 104)
*Mavericks are 6-4 (5-5 ATS) versus the Pelicans in their last 10 meetings
NO:
*5-16 ATS on Saturdays over the last 2 seasons
-E’Twaun Moore (OUT- personal reasons)
-Omer Asik (OUT- illness)
I’m so glad everyone rolled out the red carpet for Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins on Thursday- all that did was expose how incredibly thin this team’s rotation is, and I can only hope the public comes off of them since the Pelicans took a 30-point beatdown on the chin. Both of their $9,500 DK/$10.000 FD price tags are exactly the same on both sites and this is much more appealing than it was the other night. I say roll them both out if you can afford it.
Jrue Holiday could legitimately play 48 minutes tonight- I’m not even kidding. E’Twaun Moore has already been ruled out and that leaves guys like Tim Frazier, Hollis Thompson (not available on FD) and Jarrett Jack as the only backcourt options.
DAL:
*24-13 ATS after a loss by 10+ points over the last 2 seasons
-JJ Barea (OUT indefinitely- strained calf)
We talked about Yogi Ferrell being a potential landmine yesterday…and it came true. He’ll continue to get solid minutes but the guy to watch here is Seth Curry, who couldn’t disappoint you if the effort was applied. Ferrell, Curry and even Wesley Matthews are all in play for this game considering the Pelicans backcourt situation is a last-second thrown together jamboree at best.
Nerlens Noel will be in the lineup tonight and that gives me the heebie-jeebies about Dirk Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes. Sure, one could pop off in a multiple-entry sort of way, but I’d rather take notes on this situation tonight.
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-9) – O/U: 216.5
—————-Pace> CHI: 23rd – CLE: 14th
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 18th – CLE: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 15th – CLE: 19th
Matchup:
*Bulls have won both meetings (@CHI: 111 – CLE: 105), (CHI: 106 @ CLE: 94)
*Teams have split the last 16 meetings, but the Bulls are 11-5 ATS
CHI:
*13-26 ATS on Saturdays over the last 3 seasons
-Cameron Payne (WILL PLAY- missed last night’s game, illness)
-Michael Carter-Williams (OUT- patellar tendinitis)
-Paul Zipser (DOUBTFUL- ankle sprain)
This is another situation that I can’t quite put my finger on. It looks like Cameron Payne is going to be thrown into the mix and we have no realistic expectation on how many minutes he’ll play. Michael Carter-Williams is out, though, so that means Payne and Jerian Grant are the only ones manning the one spot.
Jimmy Butler will be a lot more appealing if LBJ doesn’t play tonight, so keep that in mind. He did play 43 minutes last night but the Bulls are trying to get themselves into the playoffs and that should put him in full IDGAF mode.
The #FreeBobbyPortis movement got off to a 16-minute start last night…ha! All kidding aside, I think he’ll be much more useful against a Cavs team that will probably have bodies out there that stretch the floor. Haven’t you guys ever heard about saving players for the back end? Nikola Mirotic took a dump on the Portis party last night by playing 37 minutes and posting 29.6 FDP in the process.
CLE:
*8-1 ATS in February this season
*19-33 ATS versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons
-Kevin Love (OUT indefinitely- arthroscopic knee surgery)
If LeBron James doesn’t play tonight, ABC executives will collectively have a massive panic attack. Much to the dismay of people that care about them, all of us degenerate DFS players can laugh and play Kyrie Irving in the process…after all, Kyrie’s usage rate jumps to nearly 50% when LBJ and Kevin Love are off the court. WOWOWOWOW!
In the event LBJ misses tonight’s game, that does open up opportunities for Channing Frye, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, Kyle Korver and pretty much everyone else getting meaningful minutes for the Cavs. Who benefits the most? Sheeeeeeeeeiiiiit…..
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets (-10.5) – O/U: 228
—————-Pace> MIN: 24th – HOU: 4th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 11th – HOU: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 23rd – HOU: 13th
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (HOU: 111 @ MIN: 109), (@MIN: 119 – HOU: 105)
*Rockets are 8-1 (3-6) versus the Timberwolves in their last 9 meetings
*8 of the last 9 Rockets/Timberwolves games have gone OVER the total
MIN:
-NO INJURIES
Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are the only viable options from the T-Wolves…plain and simple.
HOU:
*21-8 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Patrick Beverley (QUESTIONABLE- groin soreness)
James Harden scares me a little bit, and that’s mainly because Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni said that he was trying to spell some minutes off the MVP candidate until the playoffs. It does make sense, especially since they got Lou Williams via trade to couple up with Eric Gordon in their second unit. My God, this is absolute trouble for the rest of the Western Conference, but it could also trouble Harden owners who pay upwards of $12K for him on a nightly basis. Certainly, something to watch out for…
As for the rest of the Rockets (including Harden), they have great matchups all over the board. That part…is up to you.
Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors (-22) – O/U: 233
—————-Pace> BKN: 1st – GS: 2nd
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – GS: 1st
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – GS: 2nd
Matchup:
*Warriors won the only meeting (GS: 117 @ BKN: 101)
*Warriors are 4-1 (2-3 ATS) versus the Nets in their last 5 meetings
BKN:
-Caris LeVert (OUT- illness)
-Quincy Acy (OUT- ankle sprain)
You all know I am the biggest Nets fan on the face of the Earth…there is no doubt about that. However, I have to keep you off them tonight since they’re running the most diverse rotation in the history of the NBA. You have to think about it- the Nets are trying to figure out who is going to fit in their future plans…wins aren’t really that big of a deal right now. They are nine wins behind the second worst team, the Phoenix Jackass Suns. NO ONE IS SAFE!
GS:
*9-18 ATS versus teams with a losing record this season
-Kevin Durant (OUT- sprained hand)
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are so money tonight and THEY KNOW IT! Of course, all of that is possible because Kevin Durant fell on his wrist from a two-story building the other night- kidding, well kinda, it was from high AF. Curry and Klay- all day…Dray if you wan get cray…and that’s all I got to say.
Bench guys are certainly going to get in the mix if the Warriors are 19-point favorites. Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, Patrick McCaw…how ya durrin?
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