Course Overview
This is another 3 course event similar to the Career Builder Challenge. The cut is after 3 rounds and will be limited to the top 60 and ties. All 3 courses- Pebble Beach (par 72), Spyglass Hill (par 72), and Monterey Peninsula (par 71) are under 7,000 yards and feature a plethora of uphill and downhill shots. The courses play a lot longer than the yardage would suggest due to both the elevation differences and course layout. There are tons of holes that force you to lay up or use less than driver on top of some extreme doglegs. Driving Accuracy will be important since drive placement will be key, but the rough is pretty easy to scramble on. The stat to focus on the most this week however is SG: Approach and general ball striking. Pebble Beach features some of the smallest greens on tour and most of the greens are surrounded by sand so pin seeking will be important along with good course management. The greens are slow, flat, and Poa-annua, so bad putters get a break in a big way this week, especially with plenty of rain in the forecast this week. It could also get windy so that’s something to keep in mind with these courses being on the coastline, although Spyglass is different since it’s protected by trees unlike the other 2 courses.
High End Picks
Dustin Johnson ($11,800)
2 years ago when DFS golf was a new thing, Dustin Johnson burned everyone at the Farmers Open by missing the cut. He bounced back in a big way with a T4 finish here at Pebble. Could this week be similar? Perhaps. The 2016 PGA Tour player of the year is a 2-time winner here and has 5 top 5 finishes here since 2009. There are a few holes on this course that grant a huge advantage to only a select few bombers that can place 300 yard drives just right to get a roll downhill. DJ Would be your best bet on those holes and a lot of these par 5s.
Brandt Snedeker ($10,000)
Snedeker is another 2-time winner here both in the last 4 years and he’s coming in off a top 10 finish at the Farmers Open. He’s outspoken in his love for Poa-annua greens and he’s a proven golfer in windy conditions. Statistically he’s not the ideal fit for this course but Snedeker has always been a bit of a special case.
Phil Mickelson ($9,300)
Phil has looked awesome during this west coast swing with 3 straight finishes T21 or better. He’s coming into a course he’s won 4 times now and almost won last year. He also hasn’t missed a cut here in a decade. He’s a good course manager and is obviously familiar and comfortable here. His approach game and putter are great right now, and even though he can spray it off the tee some, he’s perhaps the best at making magic happen out of the rough.
Justin Rose ($9,200)
Rose is looking great early on with a 2nd place finish at Sony and a T4 at the Farmers to begin the season. He hasn’t played this course in 7 years but I’m not too worried about it. He’s a great value at his price considering he has the 4th best Vegas odds but only the 7th most expensive player on the board.
Mid Range Picks
Patrick Reed ($8,300)
Reed is absurdly underpriced. He’s a consistent cut-maker with a solid track record here. He’s played here 4 times with 4 top 30s and 3 top 15 finishes. I expect him to be a very chalky option and perhaps he’s worth a fade in GPP- statistically he’s not really what your looking for here. He sprays it off the tee without much distance, and the best part of his game is his scrambling and putting.
Webb Simpson ($8,200)
Simpson is perhaps a perfect pivot off of Reed at this price because statistically he’s exactly what you’re looking for here. His approach game- especially out of the rough- is top tier and his entire tee to green game is solid. He’s a bad putter and that’s always been his biggest downfall but that didn’t slow him down last week when he took Matsuyama to a playoff at the Phoenix Open. He gained 4.3 strokes putting which put him as 13th best in the field.
Gary Woodland ($8,000)
After a hot start to 2017, Woodland missed his first cut at the Phoenix Open and I think the pricing here is an overreaction. You’ll get him at a reduced ownership with recency bias and I think he fits the course well statistically. He’s great tee to green with a solid approach/GIR game with his downfall being putting.
Value Picks
Jim Furyk ($7,500)
Furyk is making his first start since taking a T6 finish during the swing season at the RSM classic. He’s got a great track history here most recently finishing 7th in 2015. This is one of the more obvious mispricings on the board and he’ll be one of the higher owned guys in cash and GPP. He’s also one of the most accurate ball strikers there is.
Chris Kirk ($7,500)
Looking for a Furyk pivot? Kirk is your guy. His form ever since fall has been consistently great. He finished 2nd here in 2013 but outside of that his history here is dodgy. He’s definitely not as good of a play as Furyk, but he’ll come at a drastically lower ownership while having similar Vegas odds.
William McGirt ($7,500)
Looking for another good Furyk pivot? Dirt McGirt is your guy. He boasts excellent marks in driving accuracy and greens in regulation % and although he hasn’t shown it much this year, in years past he’s been one of the most elite approach game players.
Greg Owen ($7,400)
Owen looks to be an incredibly sneaky option here. He seems a bit overpriced but I’m more than happy to pay for him here. He’s an Approach the Green and GIR specialist, and he never comes with high ownership. He’s a real hit or miss guy so while he can finish top 5 like he did at the Sanderson Farms, he could also miss the cut badly if his game is off.
Sean O’Hair ($7,300)
O’Hair is in a perfect position to make the cut here. He’s done such for 9 straight years at this course, and he’s made 4 out of 4 cuts on the season with 3 top 11 finishes in that span. He’s slightly above average in every statistical category with no real weaknesses, so he should be a safe and possibly high owned option.
Adam Hadwin ($7,300)
What’s a guy gotta do to get a price increase around here? He’s absolutely killed it this year with 5/5 cuts made, a round of 59, and 3 top 12 finishes. While usually being known as a raw putter, that’s actually not what’s been leading to his success as of late, the rest of his overall game has been there for him. He’s never played here before which is worrying and his marks on approach game and greens in regulation are under average so maybe he warrants a fade in tournaments since he’ll likely be high in ownership.
Scott Piercy ($7,200)
Another egregious underpricing, he should be up there in the 8k range. He’s a great course fit, excelling in every stat outside of putting and he’s made all 5 of his cuts since November.
Martin Laird ($7,100)
At 50/1 odds Laird sticks out compared to everyone else in his range that hover around 200/1. He’s coming off of 2 top 10s in 3 weeks and he’s made all of his cuts so far this season. He hasn’t played here in a while but he looks like he sets up for this course. He’s good at approach and is above average at pretty much everything else.
Shane Lowry ($7,000)
Lowry has even better odds than Laird and might be the most incorrectly priced guy on the slate outside of Furyk. He’s made the cut and played well both times he played here over the last 2 years and since returning to the Tour 2 weeks ago he made both cuts and finished T16 last week. Expect heavy ownership on him for sure.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,900)
No love for the defending champ with such a low price. Maybe Lowry around this price range will suck up some ownership, but I still expect him to be a popular option. He finished 10th in 2015 so his course history is elite, and he’s made 5/5 cuts since November. It’s important to note in that span he has no finish better than T41. By far the best part of his game is approach, you could consider him a specialist at that.
Maybank Championship
High End
Bernd Wiesberger ($12,000)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($11,800)
Charl Schwartzel ($11,200)
Danny Willett ($9,000)
Thongchai Jaidee ($8,900)
Mid Range
Peter Uihlein ($8,200)
Pablo Larrazabal ($8,100)
Jorge Campillo ($8,000)
Thomas Aiken ($7,700)
Marcus Fraser ($7,600)
Nacho Elvira ($7,500)
Value
Gregory Bourdy ($7,300)
David Lipsky ($7,200)
Miguel Tabuena ($7,200)
Nicolas Colsaerts ($7,000)
Paul Dunne ($7,000)
Prom Meesawat ($6,700)
Alexander Levy ($6,700)
Mikko Ilonen ($6,700)
Chris Paisley ($6,700)
Jbe Kruger ($6,600)
Nathan Holman ($6,400)
Curtis Luck ($6,300)
Matteo Manassero ($6,200)
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