Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Sway Bar – the DFS Army weekly NASCAR column. The first part of this article is kind of an introduction to NASCAR DFS and NASCAR as a whole. If you are already up on that, go ahead and skip ahead to the Daytona 500 section for some Daytona analysis.
Before we go any further, if you haven’t already – think about checking out the premium cheat sheet. The cheat sheet contains practice times, fantasy point projections, stats, track history, odds and other underutilized metrics to further help you pick your team. It’s available to all current VIP members- you can sign up using promocode “BRADY” HERE and get 20% off! You will also get access to premium NBA, NFL, PGA, MLB, and NFL content, access to the industry standard for line-up optimization – the Domination Station, and invited to our massive slack group that works 24/7 to dig for every edge you can get in DFS. We’ve SMASHED the Clash and Duels, and I think the 500 will be even better. Now lets talk NASCAR.
Intro To NASCAR DFS
I think NASCAR DFS offers the biggest edge in DFS to someone willing to put in a little research during the week. Each week they go to a different venue that offers different advantages to different driving styles. Identifying those advantages will put you in the upper echelon of NASCAR DFS players.
Here are a couple of things that I think are super important for successful DFSing.
Understand Which Drivers Excel At Each Style Of Track
NASCAR is unlike any other DFS game because not only are you competing against other competitors, you are competing against the track. Every driver has tracks where they excel, and tracks where they struggle. Understanding which drivers perform where will give you a MASSIVE advantage over the causal money. Take Jimmie Johnson. He’s the best driver of the generation, even the most casual of casuals knows exactly who he is and would be happy to put him in their lineup any given weekend. However, Jimmie tends to struggle at Bristol. He only has one win there and has an average finish of 15th. Considering he is going to be $9000+, 15th isn’t gonna cut it. These are the things you need to be aware of.
NASCAR isn’t a Level Playing Field
This is really important. The biggest advantage you can get in NASCAR is good equipment (car), and determining who has the best equipment can be a great way to determine who is going to perform well that weekend. I will put a projected equipment grade below, but 2017 will have more question marks in terms of equipment than ever before. They are running with an entirely new ruleset. One team will certainly figure out how to maximize their performance within the new rules faster than the others, so we have to be vigilant to figure that out. Anyways, at the end of 2016 it looked like this, at a super high level:
- A+ Equipment – Joe Gibbs Racing, Furniture Row Racing
- A Equipment – Hendrick Motorsports, Penske Motorsports, Wood Brothers Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing
- B Equipment – Chip Ganassi Racing, Richard Childress Racing
- C+ Equipment – Roush Fenway Racing, Germain Racing??
- C Equipment – JTG Daugherty, Richard Petty Motorsports
- D Equipment – Everyone Else
A Couple Notes
– Stewart-Haas Racing switched from Chevrolet to Ford this year. This is a huge change and it is hard to say how performance will be effected. With that in mind, Vegas has a Stewart-Haas driver favored to win the championship – so it’s more likely than not they are in good shape.
-Germain Racing has a new driver this year named Ty Dillon. Ty Dillon is the grandson of the owner of Richard Childress Racing. It’s safe to say he is going to have B+ equipment this year despite not officially driving for Richard Childress Racing.
Follow The Practices and Qualifying
During the season, I watch every practice and every qualifying session, and for good reason. Sometimes an A+ Driver in an A+ Car can just miss the mark. Whether it be a bad setup or a bad weekend for the driver or crew chief – sometimes drivers just stink. The fortunate thing is this will usually show up in practice. At the very least, check out the Happy Hour report and see who was fastest overall, and who had the best 10-Lap average. This is also a great way to find a C+ car with a great setup and has a chance to get a great result.
Qualifying is even more important. The way NASCARs scoring works, a driver who starts 40th and finishes 6th is worth more than a driver who starts 2nd and finishes 2nd (usually). Drivers get + or – one point for start/finish differential. So if you start 40th and finish 6th, that’s a 34 point bonus! There is always an A or B car that is starting in the 20s or 30s. Watching qualifying can help you determine if it’s because they are having a bad weekend (and not likely to improve their result) or just had a bad qualifying session (and likely to finish much higher than they started).
A couple other things, which I may expand on later:
- Races at Daytona and Talladega are tough to handicap. Most C+ cars become a B+ car thanks to the great equalizer – the draft, and wrecks are usually big and unpredictable. That said there is certainly drivers who excel on those types of tracks, so there is value to be found.
- Streaks transcend track types. During a period of time last year Joe Gibbs Racing couldn’t lose, no matter the track type. Make sure you are aware of who is hot and who is not.
- Wrecks aren’t as random as people like to think. Though there is a small randomness to it, certain drivers crash a lot more than others. Investigate incident rates by track type and avoid those likely to have trouble.
- The following will be mispriced and could provide great value for the first few weeks of the season: Daniel Suarez, Chris Buescher, Ty Dillon, and probably Ryan Blaney.
- The volatility of NASCAR really lends itself to mass multi entry players. When you are first starting out, stick to single entry or games where you can max your entries. Identify a core and rotate some value plays in and out of every lineup. For the same reason, projecting ownership is SUPER valuable. If you fade Earnhardt JR. and he is 50% in the game, you are one wreck away from certain $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
- Understand the scoring!!!!!!!!
DAYTONA 500 BREAKDOWN
Now that that’s out of the way, lets dig into Daytona. Daytona presents such a unique challenge for DFS. You want low owned drivers, but drivers who have 6x and 7x potential (meaning their end of day FPTS = (Starting Salary/100)(6). You want drivers who have poor starting positions, but have an opportunity to compete for a win at the end of the day. Most importantly, you want drivers who have the smallest chance of incident(wrecks) and in particular, drivers that will miss the “big-one”. This creates a classic catch-22. Statistically, drivers in the top-6 are involved in multi car wrecks an average 7.87% of the time, compared to drivers towards the middle of the pack, 11th-28th, whose average is closer to 35%-40%. What I am trying to say is, the drivers who start up front and stay up front are low risk, low reward. Whereas drivers like Johnson, Blaney, and Truex Jr, who are starting towards the back, need to work their way through the bees nest and expose themselves to extreme incident potential to be high reward.
So how do we circumvent this? Let’s forget about the driver and focus on the crew chief. I like the idea of targeting crew chiefs whose driver has a poor starting position, but a great history of effective green-flag stop management on plate tracks. In other words, crew chiefs who can tell their drivers to hang towards the back of the field (where incident exposure is much lower than the bees nest), and get them towards the front of the field via pit road strategy. In 2016, the plate race stand out crew chiefs were:
- Luke Lambert/Ryan Newman (Starting 14th)
- Adam Stevens/Kyle Busch (Starting 21st)
- Tony Gibson/Kurt Busch (Starting 8th)
- Jason Ratcliff/Matt Kenseth (Starting 9th)
- Slugger Labbe/Austin Dillon (Starting 10th)
- Trent Owens/Now with Chris Buescher(Starting 37th)
- Matt McCall/Jamie McMurray (Starting 3th)
Top Plays
It’s a shame that most of these guys have decent starting spots already – but this research does uncover one gem. Kyle Busch, surprise surprise, will have a lower than normal incident exposure, a poor starting position, and a stellar track record at Daytona (he finished 2nd and 3rd at Daytona in 2016.) If we project him to do the same this week, and keep up and average of 15 laps led and 4 fastest laps – he is poised to score 60-65 FPTS at $9400. That’s a 6x value. Use this information as you will, but Kyle Busch is a lock for me.
Staying on the Joe Gibbs train, I like Denny Hamlin a whole big bunch in the Daytona 500. In terms of average running position at Daytona, it’s Denny Hamlin and then there is everyone else. He is one of the best when it comes to Daytona and while his starting position (4th) will limit his upside, it also limits his indecent exposure. I expect Denny will be a staple in the top 5 all day long, and compete for a win at the end of the day. If he can eek out a win, which I believe he will, we can expect around 65-67 FPTS for him, which makes him a 7x value at $9600. This is correlates nicely with the projection of a 2nd or 3rd place finish for Kyle, so I like that stack. Chances are he is among the highest owned guys in cash and gpps, though.
Martin Truex Jr. is having a miserable week. Which is great news! He has had trouble in both the Clash and The Duel, and then he failed post race inspection so his Duel participation was disallowed. This means his official starting spot will be 35th. This is a perfect DFS storm. He hasn’t given me a lot to look forward too, but with 36 potential differential points, he has legitimate 7x potential at $9,000. His incident exposure is going to be high, but he is a decent driver in Joe Gibbs equipment so he is worth some exposure.
Ryan Blaney is another top play for me this week for a lot of the same reasons as Truex. He has 37 potential differential points, good equipment, and a team with a storied Daytona history. The problem is, Blaney has never really showed lights out talent at Daytona (no top tens). He also has a high incident rate, and will be in a backup car. With all that in mind, all we really need is a top 15 from him to get 5 or 6x results.
For obvious reasons, I also think Joey Logano has 6x potential, and Jimmie Johnson as a super high risk 6x potential guy.
I also have big exposure to Allmendinger, Kahne and Stenhouse Jr – all of which I like as pivots off the chalky value plays.
Fades
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is among the top three plate racers in the sport. He dominated his duel, and showed the strength to control the field. If he runs a perfect race and ends up with a first or second place finish, he nearly has 6x potential. But for a guy who could go as high as 50% owned, I think a lot has to go right for him to be value. I might expose him at 10% or 15%.
Kyle Larson has shown some potential at plate races over the last year and has a decent potential point differential. That said, he is a magnet for incidents. He is overpriced and will probably go over owned. I am fading him nearly completely.
I have been high on Brad Keselowski all week, but I am fading him on Sunday. Fade with caution, because he could certainly win this race, lead a lot of laps, and have a positive place differential. But he is just too expensive for his 20th average finish since 2012 at Daytona and I think he will be over-owned given the Penske dominance on plate tracks in 2016. Full disclosure I do have to exposure to him, just not significant.
Value Plays
Ryan Blaney is my top value play for the reasons mentioned above. I don’t mind using Paul Menard, but his incident rate is higher than average.If you need a punt target David Ragan, but beware, he will be overexposed, and Landon Cassill, who I will argue to the death could win this race in a better race car. Corey Lajoie has stated his only goal is to finish the race, so he will be very cautious. If you anticipate a wreckfest, he could eek out a top 25 and smash value.
The most polarizing value play this week is Chris Buescher. In his stock car career, his Daytona results look like this – DNQ, 2, 39, 40. So he has the potential to perform here, but he has struggled mightily. Heres why I like him though:
- He is in the best car he has ever driven at the Cup level.
- He is a well respected driver for his age and should have help all day.
- He has had as much track time as any driver this week.
- His crew chief is Trent Owens, who is something of a wizard at pit strategy.
- He is starting 34th with a top 20 car and top 10 talents.
This next statement is going to seem obvious – but if he doesn’t wreck, he is an amazing play. That said, I don’t think he is at as much incident risk as some other value plays. He is not an overly aggressive driver, stayed out of trouble so far this week, and will probably be told to hang back and let Owens get him track position. Use with caution, be cause he is more expensive than he ought to be – but he is a GPP winning play.
Parting Advice
So that’s it. That’s all I got for this week. Best advice I can give this week is to game theory just as much as you number crunch. Look for guys you think will be low owned and hammer them into your line-ups. Daytona is a weird place, so don’t be afraid to leave some dollars on the table. Most importantly, play max-entries or single entries. It is impossible to predict who will wreck out, so a guy with 150 lineups has a lot better chance to get it right.
This article will continue to grow as we draw closer to Daytona Day, so be sure to check back. Make sure you take advantage of Taco’s spreadsheet and the Domination Station, and use code “BRADY” when you sign up for a 20% discount! I will also be active on #Nascar room on Slack. Play smart and go crush it, lets see some DFS Army logos out there this weekend.