Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
FEB 22– Sometimes you have the wrong pieces of good games. Sometimes the other games do better than you expected, too. That doesn’t necessarily mean you missed. It means you had the wrong pieces. I’ve seen enough to know you don’t need to be in the higher scoring games to win your cash formats. It helps. But, you can still win in spite of that IF you have the right pieces. You definitely be in the right games, but if you have the wrong pieces you lose. And, that happened to me last night. I hope you had Kuzetznov because he was a make or break player for me. Chalky enough that where I didn’t have him, I didn’t do well enough.
Not much else to say about a short slate. If you had the right games, you still weren’t far off the money. This is why I tell new players to stick with short slates. You are going to be pretty close no matter what you do. It helps build your confidence as the chalk pigeon-holes itself down to just a few places that are easier to predict.
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- Nashville Predators – I hate to recommend them as the top offense, but I will have a huge piece of them tonight. We pick on COL as much as it makes sense to, and the Preds have been rolling pretty well recently. Top 10 scoring offense, top 4 shooting offense (where the Avs give up the most goals and 3rd most shots) and they are above average when it comes to earning fantasy points for you while the Avs are bottom 10 in allowing them. Those are all green lights. Look for the primary producers for Nashville and crank them up. They might be in the best spot on the night.
2- Chicago Blackhawks – Same situation nearly identically with CHI hosting the Coyotes. I mean the stats are really, really close and we love picking on ARI too, especially away from Phoenix. I hate to oversimplify, but there really isn’t much more to say. If you are bored, just reread the blurb for Nashville above and pretend it’s for Chicago.
3- New York – Ha…see what I did there? I didn’t distinguish between the Rangers or the Islanders. Why? Because they are a lot like the relationship described between Nashville and Chicago above. I do REALLY like their spots tonight. But, I didn’t want to write up 4 teams in the “primary” category and I can’t slide one of these teams down into “secondary” in good faith. NYR is powerful as an offense and we all know TOR gives points like Halloween candy. It’s a great matchup for the Rangers. The Islanders get MTL and the Habs are still reeling in the statistical columns from their month-long swoon. The Isles aren’t quite the offense the Rangers are, but they are rolling better recently, so it’s sort of 6 one way half dozen the other. These are the 4 primary offenses today.
Secondary Options
4- Toronto Maple Leafs – Ok…so we know they give points. But, they also score them, too. It’s not as if the Rangers are a defensive juggernaut either. This game has shootout potential in it. I like both sides. Perhaps NY’s offense is a bit better for testing a ceiling and concentrated upside. I do, however, like TOR for some value on it’s lower lines AND they get the home ice advantage of matching up lines better with who they want to skate against. They are in a pretty good spot for all formats.
5- Montreal Canadians – This one is split because I don’t like the way they’ve been playing. The Habs have flashed a bit lately and do own the dominating record vs the Isles at 8-2 in their last 10. I saw some flashes of coming back the past game or two and don’t mind taking a shot here solely because NYI gives points generously too. If there is a spot to get back on track for MTL, this is a really good one.
6- Boston Bruins – These guys are still playing well despite last night’s loss. They are on the back end of back-to-back nights and are on the road, but LA hasn’t played it’s best hockey of late in giving up the 9th most fantasy points over it’s last 3 games. Budaj is struggling to see the puck and it shows in his 2-5 record over his last 7 games. With BOS excelling at firing pucks at the net, Budaj better come back to form to avoid getting rattled early by a barrage of pucks coming fast and furious. Look at the recent play of that top BOS line and you might load one or two of them up this evening. There are obviously other teams in ok spots. But, the rest are all one-offs to me. I’m focusing on these top 6 or 7 teams only. That’s plenty from which to play well tonight.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Corey Crawford – Dude is hot and CHI is rolling pretty good. The Hawks are 7-3 over their last 10 games and Crawford is 5-1 in his last 6. Add in the -265 favorite given by Vegas, being at home, and facing Arizona and I’m starting here tonight.
2- Pekka Rinne – I trust Vegas. They like Rinne tonight with a matching -260 line for Nashville. Again, we pick on Colorado, so he’s square on the radar tonight. Crawford is running hotter, but Rinne isn’t a bad cash option either.
Secondary Options
3- Ben Bishop – This is where I slide in another hot goalie. Vegas doesn’t support Bishop like it does Rinne, but you could so easily flip-flop these two tonight. In fact, you could call Bishop goalie 1a with Crawford. The only detractor is the Vegas support. Ben has won his last 5 and TB is 7-3 vs it’s last 10 meetings with CGY. The offense has been rolling well of late, too. Lots of checks in boxes for Bishop. You might even break your own tie by taking the cheaper one between him, Crawford, and Rinne. I haven’t looked at pricing yet, but I’d bet a large sum Bishop is the cheaper of the three.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1 – Cash Safe
Here is where watching both DK and FD is important. There is a significant pricing difference between Bishop and Crawford on DK…..not on FD. So, if torn, you use the cheaper one on DK and the other on FD where there is no difference in pricing.
FanDuel Lineup 1 – Fair and Balanced
If playing both sites, use Crawford here where there is no difference in price. Use Bishop over on DK where he is significantly cheaper. That alone, varies your lineup on the two sites yet still keeps your targeted teams or core in tact.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut