Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
FEB 21st– Let’s review last night. When we call out an offense as one to target, we do so by spotting shots on goal for a team matching up against a team that allows a lot. Same with fantasy points over a 4 week and 1 week period. When we see a good offense facing a softer defense, we get some green lights to attack. Last night, we targeted the WPG/TOR game, PIT, NYI, TB, and NSH. We mentioned the CHI/MIN game could be goofy being division rivals. We mentioned LA wasn’t playing as well lately and could be a trap for Budaj’s recent slump.
When I target an offense, I’m not expecting some 6 goal game. I would like to see the team score 4+ goals. I’m ok with 3. This gives us some action from which to catch a piece. Last night, all our teams when over 3. So, we did well. Now, we still had our usual surprises and we have a few teams to watch. CHI continues to roll. CGY might be picking things back up. Those are a couple of things to watch going forward. I can’t put them on a full slate “trust” list just yet, but I’m watching. A couple more games of scoring and their 1 week and 4 week numbers will dictate we pay attention. Keep reading and I’ll surely let you know when to start plugging them in.
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
3 Game Slate Breakdown
Small slate today; let’s just break them all down in one spot…
EDM @ FLA (-125) … total 5.5
Cam Talbot is on a crazy roll right now winning 3 of his last 4 and 4 of his last 5. He is taking shots, which helps build a floor. In that last 5 is also a shutout. In GPPs, he makes an interesting pivot tonight. Roberto Luongo I can’t condone. While FLA is hot as Hades, Luongo isn’t as big a piece of it as you would think on the surface. His past few games have been a little up and down. He also sat out a team win in San Jose. He has lost 2 of his last 5 and isn’t safe by any means.
The Oilers have dominated this specific matchup recently going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. However, they aren’t terribly efficient as an offense over the recent past. EDM ranks bottom third in 4 week numbers and only slightly above average over the last week. As a result, they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games overall. We might be forced to take a couple of Oilers, though, with such limited options on a 3 game slate.
Florida is running white hot right now. The Panthers are 8-1-1 in their last 10 and have swept a 5 game road trip going 5-0 with no OT wins necessary. You would think they are dominating every fantasy category, but that’s not the case. Hence the difference in what we look for between fantasy and “normal” sports fandom. Florida loves activity, though. They run top 5 numbers on the season when it comes to both shots on goal and shots allowed by opponents. This means if they can play their type of game, it should be end-to-end and a bit north and south leading to a lot of activity/events. That’s good for fantasy. They are a top 5 team in fantasy points scored over a 4 week period, but are not even in the top 10 over the last week since they won a few lower scoring games. This is also a potential “trap game” coming back home after a lengthy, and hugely successful, road trip. If they exhale even a little, the hot netminding of Cam Talbot might just bite them in the jock strap. Not a team I’m looking to stack up, but I will have exposure.
WSH (-160) @ PHI … total 5
Brian Holtby is your chalk goalie tonight. I’m personally not varying off him as the other options are taking on significant risk I just don’t need to take when the win points are so critical to my success. Holtby may have lost his last game out in OT, but he literally won his previous 9 outright. Do I need to bore you with stats to back that statement up? Well, I’m not gonna. I’m also not talking about Steve Mason. He carries the most risk on the slate for goalies. Avoid….unless going deeply contrarian in large GPPs.
The Caps are the hefty Vegas favorite on the night forcing my hand to lean their direction in cash builds. While they may have lost their previous two games, they still own a 7-2-1 record over their last ten games. They own the matchup advantage here, too, with a 6-2-2 record in their last 10 with PHI. Washington scores 3.4 goals per game ranking them 2nd in the league, and over the last 4 weeks they have scored the 4th most fantasy points, too. On a short slate, I don’t need to look much further to find the majority of my skaters. Tonight might be a night I break my normal “no more than 2 per team in cash” rule and take 3 or even 4 skaters. The options are just limited on 3 game slates and we have to take advantage of the better teams we find in softer matchups.
I’m obviously not a fan of PHI outside of GPPs where I’m not taking Holtby as my goalie. PHI is struggling and is a sub .500 team over it’s last 10 outings. It never looks good when the home team is a rather significant underdog. I don’t need to spend a lot of time here honestly. Fade.
BOS @ ANA (-103) … total 5
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Read games above ^
Secondary Options
None. It’s a 3 game slate and we have an overwhelming Vegas favorite.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1
Green dots are SC2 and PP2 while red dots are on different scoring lines but still overlap on the PP1. Look for ways like this in cash games to spread your net and capture access to goals and assists no matter where the goals come from.
FanDuel Lineup 1
Note the “one-offs” from the games outside of Washington tonight. If you play GPPs, this is a good night to limit some exposure to WSH and focus elsewhere being that the Caps are such an obvious choice for skaters.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut