Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
FEB 16th was meh. I thought STL was a trap. Some of their value picks paid off nicely. The offenses we focused on were not the problem, though. It was the goalie. Budaj shit hard on us. Couple that with Lehner’s shutout and it really hurt if you faced someone with the BUF goalie. Our skater targets were enough to cash your 5050s or double ups, but that goalie bomb kept you away from any serious cashing anywhere else. Oh well, shit happens in hockey. Back at it…
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
3 Game Slate Breakdown
Small slate today; let’s just break them all down in one spot…
PIT @ CBJ (-130) total 6
Murray back in goal, but the total scares me a little. PIT is the highest powered offense on this slate and CBJ has been slumping a bit of late both offensively and defensively. PIT maintains a top 5 league ranking in most statistical categories I look at (SOG, Corsi, pts earned over 4 weeks and 1 week). They’re just good. PIT takes on a defense that hasn’t been great over a 4 week period now, ranking 6 in allowing points (that’s a good thing). CBJ has shored it up a little last week ranking 22nd, so maybe CBJ tamps that Pens offense down a bit. But, it’s the Pens….I’m not betting against them.
On the flipside, CBJ is rather mediocre offensively right now over both 4 weeks and 1 week and PIT has been better defensively. PIT typically allows shots to get on goal and allows points against since they focus on outscoring you rather than stopping you. However, right now PIT is playing pretty well defensively.
If I had to pick an offense, I’d obviously favor PIT. But, Vegas likes this to a tune of a 6 o/u. On a 3 game slate, I might want to get both sides of this one in either format cash or gpp. But, I’m still leaning PIT in this one with my focus.
COL @ CAR (-265) total 5.5
COL has lost 5 in a row, never a good sign. COL also doesn’t score much yet gives up a lot defensively. Simply put, they suck. We target them. You can see Vegas is telling us the same by giving CAR the whopping -265 (line opened at -220, too, so the public agrees heavily with CAR putting the ass whoopin on COL tonight). I’m only on COL skaters if going ultra-contrarian on a short slate. Our VIPs know if this is the right slate to do so or not. If you aren’t a VIP of the DFS Army, you might consider it if you want more in-depth hockey analysis than this space gives.
CAR, however, isn’t exactly Pittsburgh when it comes to offensive efficiency. Sure, COL gives up points and shots. But, CAR isn’t exactly adept at taking advantage right now. Middle of the pack in SOG, bottom five in 4 week and 1 week production. This might be a game that turns that around temporarily, but they might also win this one 2-1 and leave us pissed off. I’d temper expectations here with skaters. Cam Ward, though, is the overwhelming chalk goalie tonight. I will have damned near 100% exposure even if I make 75 lineups. (We don’t get cute with our goalies in DFS NHL!)
FLA @ ANA (-140) total 5
FLA is running hot. 4th in SOG on the year, so they shoot the puck. 5th in 4 week production and 2nd in 1 week production. I like looking at the 4wk and 1wk numbers as moving averages. When they cross each other, I feel they indicate the direction the team is heading. 5th over 4 weeks is my baseline. When I see the 2nd in 1 week cross it (upwards) it tells me FLA is running hot. When it crosses that 5th downwards, it tells me they are cooling off. I ride hot hands in NHL. But, ANA is one of the defenses I fear, especially at home. So, I have my expectations tempered here a bit.
ANA is an elite team at home. They have a 17-6 record in their barn. They are also coming off a 5 game road trip, so we have to go back a ways to see how they were playing at home recently. When looking back, they won 3 of their most recent 4 home games. Yikes…..like I said, they play well at home. The Mighty Ducks (throwback reference) focus on defense and win lower scoring games. That’s why the 5 in the o/u total. If you also look at the HTH matchup between these two, you find that shots on goal are suppressed for both teams compared to season averages. That’s not a good sign of offense either.
So, on one hand, I can say FLA is hot and should do damage. On the other hand, I can say ANA plays elite defense at home and this game is junk. Truth is, I don’t know tonight. Your guess is as good as mine. Sorry I can’t be better than that. I will have some skaters as one-offs, but that’s about it. I’m focused more on PIT/CBJ for skaters and will come back to this one to round out my lineups. I don’t see this one shooting out.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Cam Ward – All you need to see is Vegas giving the -265 and the line climbing in support of CAR tonight to know where the chalk goalie will be. Don’t overthink it. If you want to play cash games, you simply roster him. If you want to play GPPs, you might look at Gibson, Murray, or even the COL goalie because if Cam fails, COL wins……but that’s risky.
Secondary Options
None. It’s a 3 game slate and we have an overwhelming Vegas favorite.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
If you like what you are reading both here and on our site, you might be a VIP in the making. As a contributor and coach I may specialize in research and eliminating the growth curve for beginners, but we have coaches in our community for the experts, too. I serve to cut your time down by doing that early grunt work for you. Then, our experts and pros take over to help you max out your potential no matter what it is.
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1
FanDuel Lineup 1
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut