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Alvarez’ Searching For the Free Square – A Look At The Top Value Plays For the 2/27 Daily Fantasy NBA Slate

Searching For the Free Square 

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.

Tonight

As we progress further and further into the NBA season the games get tougher. There are always a ton of teams who are banged up right now which opens up a lot of spots for value. We have a shorter 7-game slate tonight so let us try and narrow down the field:

Free Squares of the Night

  • Willie Cauley-Stein C SAC ($5.100)
    • Since Boogie Cousins has been gone from the Kings Willie Cauley-Stein has had a great performance. and a poor performance. I think WCS gets back on the right track tonight. WCS comes into the game averaging .89 DKFP/M, and will be going against a Timberwolves team who is 19th defensively against centers. He has seen steady minutes since Boogie has been off the team playing 28 and 35 minutes. I think he will get somewhere in the 28-32 minute range tonight. We would get a baseline projection of right around 27 DKFP. There is always some uncertainty with playing WCS because he can be a very inconsistent player. Since Boogie has been gone though he has put up more shots, and his usage rate has been higher. There is a lot more production to go around for this Kings team. I like WCS for a floor of around 5.5x value tonight. We know what he brings on the defensive end, and if his offensive game is clicking he provides 7x+ upside. 
  • Lou Williams PG/SG HOU ($5,400)
    • Lou Williams and the Houston Rockets offense is a match made in heaven. He has had two great games since coming to Houston, and I think that trend will continue tonight. Lou comes into the game averaging a solid 1.20 DKFP/M, and has a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers. The Rockets have one of the highest implied-total on the board sitting at (121)-points. The one thing that can be concerning about Lou is that he does not get a ton of minutes. With his high FP/M it does not take him much to reach and exceed value. I think he will get right around 25-28 minutes.  That would give us a baseline projection of around 30 DKFP. I think Lou’s price is simply too low tonight and we will see it increase in the upcoming weeks. Take advantage of that tonight as I think Lou has a 5.5x floor. Lou also provides great upside, as he can be one of the biggest volume scorers in the NBA.
  • Robert Covington SF/PF PHI ($7,300)
    • Robert Covington has been one of the hottest players in DFS right now. He comes into the game averaging .91 DKFP/M, and is going to playing in an uptempo game against the Warriors tonight. He has hit for over 5.4x value in each of the last 7 games. He has been seeing a ton of minutes lately, and has seen some extra action at the power forward position. I have him projected for right around 35-39 minutes tonight. I love RoCo and his ability to fill up the stat sheet in many different categories. The Sixers have an implied total of (108)-points, and will be playing against a Warriors team who plays at an incredibly fast pace (103). The Sixers are (13.5)-point underdogs which means the Sixers are going to rely heavily on Covington. I have Covington projected for around a 5.8x floor, and with the amount of minutes he is going to play he has 7-7.5x value upside. 

Free Square of the Night

A shorter slate, but one that I am very intrigued by tonight. This time of year is filled with tons of injury news and players resting. One of the best ways to stay in tuned is by joining our Premium DFS Slack with the discount information below. Let’s continue to crush this second half of the NBA DFS season. My free square of the night is going to be Robert Covington. Good luck tonight everyone!

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