Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
Welcome back to the free square article everybody. Hope everyone had a good All-Star break. Did not have an article yesterday, but let us take a look at some of our premium members success from last night. User @bigbadwolve7 had a great start to the 2nd half of the season by crushing for $1247.40 off of $48.00!
Congrats!
(Sign up using discount code “ALVAREZ” if you want access to all our Premium Content)
Tonight
We have a solid 10-game Friday slate on the docket. We have some players who are in new places which could provide some nice value tonight. Let’s take a look at the free plays:
- Tyler Johnson PG/SG MIA ($5,000)
- Tyler Johnson comes into this game with a favorable price tag, and a good matchup tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. He has been averaging a solid .91 DKFP/M on the season. He has also been seeing a very steady dose of minutes. In his last 5 games before the All-Star break, he averaged right around 32 minutes to go along with 34.7 DKFP. I think Tyler is really hitting his stride right now and is underpriced at $5,000. The Heat have an implied total of around (102) points, and Johnson will be going up against a Hawks team who has struggled to defend guards all year. I project Johnson to get right around the 32-minute mark he was averaging for a baseline projection of right around 29 DKFP. That would be good enough for 5.8x value, but with the nice matchup tonight I like Tyler for around 6-6.5x value.
- Malcolm Delaney PG ATL ($3,000)
- Breaking news of Dennis Schroder sitting out this game for a 1-game suspension, Malcolm Delaney immediately comes into play. He is priced at the bare minimum salary which offers a lot of roster flexibility. He is going to be starting at the point guard position which means plenty of opportunities to fill the stat sheet. Looking at Delaney’s stats he averages around .73 DKFP/M. He has a decent matchup tonight against the Heat in which the Hawks have an implied team total of (106)-points. The real reason we are targeting Delaney is going to come down to minutes. I have him projected in the 25-30 minute range. I think he can get us right around 20 DKFP. That would be good enough for 6.67X value. I increase my value when selecting minimum priced guys and you need to get around 6.5x to 7.0x for those guys to hit “value.” I think he has a safe floor and tremendous upside for tonight.
- Marc Gasol C MEM ($7,700)
- I think Marc Gasol has been one of the most underrated players in DFS in the first half of the season. Gasol is one of those big men who fills up the stat sheet in a multitude of ways.He comes into the game tonight against the Pacers averaging a solid 1.14 DKFP/M. He also has a strong usage rate of (26) The matchup is good for Gasol tonight as the Pacers rank 21st defensively against opposing centers. Gasol has played steady minutes all year, and I have him projected to play right around 32-35 minutes tonight. We would get a baseline projection of around 40 DKFP. With the matchup, I think Gasol can easily go for about 45-50 DKFP tonight. Gasol always provides a relatively safe floor for cash games. Tonight I think also he makes a great GPP play with 6.5-7x upside.
Free Square of the Night
This article is up earlier than usual so stay on top the various news throughout the day. One of the best ways to stay in tuned is by joining our Premium DFS Slack with the discount information below. Let’s crush this second half of the season with our free squares of the night. Starting off the year our free square of the night is going to be Malcolm Delaney. Good luck tonight everyone!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball NBA cheat sheet in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code ALVAREZ to lock in at 20% off the monthly membership fee. That’s just $16 a month for premium chat, coaching from sport-specific experts, cheat sheets and optimization tools. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.