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Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-11.5, ML: -950) – O/U: 219.5
—————Pace> PHX: 3rd – CLE: 14th
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 22nd – CLE: 6th
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 24th – CLE: 14th
Spread Notes:
-Suns ATS: 10-10-1 road, 19-14-1 underdog, 10-9-1 road dog
-Suns ATS: 7-3 last 10 games (five of last six were at home/in Mexico)
-Cavaliers ATS: 10-9-2 home, 15-17-2 favorite, 9-9-2 home favorite
-Cavaliers ATS: 2-7-1 last 10 games (last six were on the road)
PHX:
-Brandon Knight (questionable- missed last two games, wrist)
-Tyson Chandler (probable- missed last game, illness)
-Jared Dudley (probable- hasn’t played since end of December)
Eric Bledsoe has been excellent lately and tonight’s matchup should be a good one, whether he draws Shumpert or Irving. The last time these two played, Bledsoe had 48.4 FDP in 39 minutes while his backcourt-mate Devin Booker had 42 FDP in 45 minutes in the same game. Most people will see the high spread on this game and essentially look elsewhere, but 11 days ago the Suns were listed as 8.5-point underdogs and took the Cavs down to the wire.
PJ Tucker had 19.8 FDP in 27 minutes last time out against the Cavs, while TJ Warren had 26.6 FDP in 28 minutes in the same game. One of these two guys could surprise us again, but they are both playing the same number of minutes and that makes it hard to pick the better of the two.
We can’t forget Tyson Chandler, who is playing out of his mind at the moment. He’s averaging 31.2 FDP over the last five games and provides some assuredness at a reasonable price tag.
CLE:
-Kevin Love (questionable- injured during Monday’s game, back)
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both had at least 27 points in their last meeting 10 days ago against the Suns, but they also had seven turnovers each in that game. I can’t see that number of mistakes happening again so both of them should be just fine, especially if Kevin Love misses this game (he was limited at shootaround this morning.) The price tag on LBJ and Kyrie has been elevated a great deal, so it’ll be interesting to see what people end up doing there.
The photo below shows the field goal attempts and true shooting attempts (FT + FG + 3PT) for the Cavs with K-Love off the court. Obviously, we haven’t seen much of this scenario with Kyle Korver in the lineup but he could be a very sneaky roll of the dice in this scenario tonight.
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (-1.5, ML: -120) – O/U: 197
—————Pace> DAL: 29th – MIA: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 25th – MIA: 29th
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 22nd – MIA: 10th
Spread Notes:
-Mavericks ATS: 10-11 road, 16-20 underdog, 10-11 road dog
-Mavericks: three-game winning streak
-Heat ATS: 8-11 home, 3-4 favorite, 3-3 home favorite
DAL:
-Andrew Bogut (out- will miss extended time, hamstring)
Tonight is an interesting scenario for the Mavericks. As you’ll read in the Heat section, I feel like they have to go with a much bigger lineup in order to deal with Whiteside and that could take some minutes away from Wesley Matthews and Seth Curry.
Harrison Barnes has stunk up the joint over the last two games, but there is a lot of change in usage going on with this Mavs team right now. Dirk Nowitzki is taking a lot more shots and producing, so that is certainly a big reason with the downslide of Barnes. If that wasn’t enough, Deron Williams is also starting to play some of the best basketball of his career. A lot of question marks for the Mavs, and not much solidity- not something I want to be a part of, especially in a down-paced matchup.
MIA:
-Josh Richardson (out- will miss next two weeks, foot)
As you can see, Hassan Whiteside does have massive home/road splits this season but he has struggled of late, exceeding value only once in his late eight games- the last four coming after that major orbital injury. However, I do love this matchup for Whiteside because the Mavs will have to drastically change their lineup in order to coincide with him. Lately, the Mavs have been putting Dirka Dirka at the five and I would be utterly shocked if they did that tonight; I fully expect them to throw Salah Mejri his way- advantage: Whiteside.
James Johnson has been excellent lately, and he’ll find himself on the court one way or the other. He’s posted no fewer than 22 FDP in all but two games since the start of December and the minutes are so solid that it’s tough to pass up.
Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson are both interesting, but they do lose a ton of appeal in this pace-down matchup.
Washington Wizards (-2.5, ML: -150) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 219
—————Pace> WAS: 15th – NYK: 11th
OFF Efficiency> WAS: 12th – NYK: 18th
DEF Efficiency> WAS: 17th – NYK: 25th
Spread Notes:
-Wizards ATS: 6-11 road, 14-9 favorite, 1-4 road favorite
-Knicks ATS: 14-7 home, 14-13 underdog, 4-4 home dog
*Both teams are on the back-end of B2B (combined 2-15 on B2B this season)
WAS:
John Wall does have a fantastic matchup against the Knicks and his direct matchup, D-Rose, owns a -2.26 Defensive RPM rating (417th of 438 NBA players.) However, his $9600 DK/$10,200 FD price tag makes him a tough fit for most lineups, especially if you want to fit stars in your lineup that aren’t on a B2B.
I like the matchups for pretty much any other Wizards starter, and their price tags aren’t that expensive either. The Wizards starters score the most percentage of any teams’ points in the NBA this season- quite valuable information on a five-game slate.
NYK:
-Lance Thomas (out- will miss the next week, orbital)
-Kristaps Porzingis (out- MRI scheduled for today/missed last four games, Achilles)
-Joakim Noah (doubtful- MRI scheduled for today/missed last night’s game, ankle)
The Knicks are actually 5-0 without Joakim Noah this season, so it’ll be interesting to see if this streak can continue without him.
Carmelo Anthony had sucked all season on B2Bs, until his last two B2B situations where he put up 43.8 and 38.4 FDP. I still don’t trust this guy on a consistent basis, but I do know that he’s been extremely motivated lately and he’s had to shoulder more offensively with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. If all the injuries end up sitting out as planned, MarshMelo will take to the four against Markieff and that’s a much more advantageous matchup.
Derrick Rose had sucked all the way up to last night, but it’s amazing what a matchup with the NBA’s worst on-ball defender will do for someone’s game. I’m not expecting a repeat performance from D-Rose, simply because he hasn’t shown it lately. If he does well tonight, we can revisit this discussion the next time the Knicks play.
Kyle O’Quinn only got 10 minutes of playing time last night because Jeff Hornacek can’t stand his lack of effort on the defensive end. I did mention in yesterday’s article that this could possibly happen, but eventually Hornacek is going to have to play him significant minutes. KOQ is clearly the best offensive option the Knicks have down low that is healthy, it’s just a matter of whether it’ll happen. Willy Hernangomez and Marshall Plumlee got 20 minutes last night and they weren’t much better on defense, so that’s probably not a good sign for KOQ.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas is turning into a stud right before our eyes, with at least 26 FDP in three of his last four games. He’s getting the minutes and is one of the few players on FanDuel whose price tag hasn’t shot all the way up overnight.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs (-12.5, ML: -1300) – O/U: 219
—————Pace> DEN: 5th – SA: 27th
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 9th – SA: 4th
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 29th – SA: 4th
Spread Notes:
-Nuggets ATS: 11-9 road, 11-10 underdog, 8-6 road dog
-Spurs ATS: 11-9 home, 21-17-1 favorite, 11-9 home favorite
DEN:
-Wilson Chandler (out- personal reasons)
-Gary Harris (out- missed last two games, ankle)
-Darrell Arthur (doubtful- missed last three games, knee)
-Danilo Gallinari (questionable- soreness, ankle)
-Nikola Jokic (probable- minor injury during Tuesday’s game, ankle)
The Nuggets are incredibly wounded at the moment, so we’ll see a couple of these players get a great deal of run in this situation. Will Barton is at the top of the list tonight where he should see all the minutes he can handle. However, the one issue is that Danilo Gallinari could miss this game- that would likely put Barton at the three, where he would draw one of the best defenders in NBA history.
Nikola Jokic has basically priced himself out of consideration for this matchup. Sure, he’s probably going to put up a decent number of points but there are so many better matchups on the board to take advantage of.
The trio of Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray may be forced into a solid number of minutes for this game if Gallinari is out.
SA:
Kawhi Leonard has posted at least 40 FDP in six of his last seven games. He draws a ridiculously handsome matchup against the NBA’s second-worst defense, where he posted 41.7 FDP in their last meeting.
Tony Parker had 37.1 FDP in 24 minutes against the Nuggets two weeks ago in their last meeting, but he has struggled a bit over the last couple of games. However, there are positives since the Spurs are at home (where he’s been much better) and are implied to score the second-most points of any team on tonight’s slate. The point guard should be heavily involved in that, no?
LaMarcus Aldridge also had a solid game last time out against the Nuggets with 37.3 FDP and he’s got a great chance to do it once again. Pau Gasol only played 17 minutes in his last game and I don’t think he matches up well with the Nuggets at all in this game. This could lead to more minutes for Dewayne Dedmon and David Lee.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, ML: -135) – O/U: 205
—————Pace> MIN: 25th – LAC: 17th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 13th – LAC: 5th
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 23rd – LAC: 6th
Spread Notes:
-Timberwolves ATS: 7-13 road, 12-14 underdog, 6-8 road dog
-Timberwolves ATS: 5-1 in last six games
-Clippers ATS: 14-9 home, 17-18 favorite, 11-8 home favorite
-Clippers ATS: 6-1 in last seven games
MIN:
The Clippers are a significantly worse defense when Chris Paul is out of the lineup, so we can take our pick of the choosing at most positions tonight. Right off the bat, though, we should be cautious with Karl-Anthony Towns since he’ll likely draw Luc Richard Mbah a Moute as his direct matchup, one of the best defenders in the NBA. Surprisingly, Gorgui Dieng could be a much better $/PT play here.
That basically leaves us with anyone else after that. Andrew Wiggins rises to the top, however, as he draws a direct matchup with the coach’s son, one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Zach LaVine is pretty interesting in this spot as well, given the fact that Redick is a much better defender because of CP3 being on the floor.
Ricky Rubio may fly under the radar tonight, but I don’t think that’s a smart move. He’s posted 40+ FDP in four of his last five games and gets a much better matchup than what people think on paper. Rubio is a solid pivot to some of the Wall, Irving, Bledsoe plays that we’ll see tonight.
LAC:
-Chris Paul (out, will miss 6-8 weeks, thumb)
-Blake Griffin (out- 1-2 weeks away from return, knee)
-Wesley Johnson (probable- missed last game, personal)
DeAndre Jordan and JJ Redick are not at their best when they have to create their own shots. Obviously, this is the situation they’re in tonight without CP3 in the lineup, but the bright side is that they still have favorable matchups.
Even though their price tags have jumped up tremendously, Raymond Felton and Austin Rivers are going to get all the run they can handle tonight. Not much to analyze here.
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